教科书对bear/bull market的定义是跌幅/涨幅超过20%，在这个之间的，叫做sideways market（或者非正式叫法crab market）
我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
版主： 牛河梁， alexwlt1024
#41 Re: 我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
#42 Re: 我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
为什么我比版上的熊熊们预判的更准确，因为我比你们更了解Trump。版上有几个人认真读过他写的 The Art of the Deal？
认真读过你就知道，虚张声势是他一贯的获利手法。操控对手的心理，增加手里虚拟筹码，获得更多利润，他把这个叫做truthful hyperbole。这个关税战他还会继续玩，但不管怎么玩，他不会让实体经济受损的，你们去看看他第一任期的经济情况就知道第二任期会怎么走了。
认真读过你就知道，虚张声势是他一贯的获利手法。操控对手的心理，增加手里虚拟筹码，获得更多利润，他把这个叫做truthful hyperbole。这个关税战他还会继续玩，但不管怎么玩，他不会让实体经济受损的，你们去看看他第一任期的经济情况就知道第二任期会怎么走了。
#43 Re: 我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
Can we hit 6,000 next week?
The SP 500’s been grinding higher and is now knocking on the door of 6,000. Personally, I think it might pop through next week. Everything’s kinda lining up.
A few months ago, investors were hoping the Fed would start cutting rates by mid-2025, but inflation just hit a four-year low in April, and now the Fed seems happy to keep things steady. That stability is probably what the market needs right now.
Earnings? Way better than expected. Q1 numbers came in hot: 12 to 13% growth for SP 500 companies. That’s solid. And investor sentiment is in a healthy zone too: about 36% bullish, which is right around the long-term average. So we’re not seeing the kind of overconfidence that often leads to a reversal.
Geopolitics? Things seem to be calming down. The Trump tariff noise has mostly faded, and I see it more as a bluff than a real threat, and markets seem to agree. Other global tensions, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, aren’t really shaking investors at the moment.
Put it all together: cooling inflation, strong earnings, stable Fed policy, and calm geopolitics. And the market has room to run. Will we break 6,000 next week? I think it’s likely, though there might be a little hesitation right at the line. Either way, we’re getting close.
The SP 500’s been grinding higher and is now knocking on the door of 6,000. Personally, I think it might pop through next week. Everything’s kinda lining up.
A few months ago, investors were hoping the Fed would start cutting rates by mid-2025, but inflation just hit a four-year low in April, and now the Fed seems happy to keep things steady. That stability is probably what the market needs right now.
Earnings? Way better than expected. Q1 numbers came in hot: 12 to 13% growth for SP 500 companies. That’s solid. And investor sentiment is in a healthy zone too: about 36% bullish, which is right around the long-term average. So we’re not seeing the kind of overconfidence that often leads to a reversal.
Geopolitics? Things seem to be calming down. The Trump tariff noise has mostly faded, and I see it more as a bluff than a real threat, and markets seem to agree. Other global tensions, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, aren’t really shaking investors at the moment.
Put it all together: cooling inflation, strong earnings, stable Fed policy, and calm geopolitics. And the market has room to run. Will we break 6,000 next week? I think it’s likely, though there might be a little hesitation right at the line. Either way, we’re getting close.
x1
#47 Re: 我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
嘻嘻，不出所料，回到6000啦~ 但我不看好它能冲很高
如我年初分析的，今年经济总体良好，但也不算太好：就业市场降温，消费者信心指数在健康范围内上下波动，ISM 制造业指数和生产指数都中上水平。
这种情况下，下半年股市应该会继续随着各种消息下上下震荡，但因为基本面良好，市场反应并不会剧烈到有重大改变，形成跌幅/涨幅超过20%的熊市或者牛市。应该就是我年初说的大概在5000-6300之间波动。
如我年初分析的，今年经济总体良好，但也不算太好：就业市场降温，消费者信心指数在健康范围内上下波动，ISM 制造业指数和生产指数都中上水平。
这种情况下，下半年股市应该会继续随着各种消息下上下震荡，但因为基本面良好，市场反应并不会剧烈到有重大改变，形成跌幅/涨幅超过20%的熊市或者牛市。应该就是我年初说的大概在5000-6300之间波动。
#50 Re: 我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
学习！从没看过教科书。长冬瓜 写了： 2025年 5月 12日 17:05 教科书对bear/bull market的定义是跌幅/涨幅超过20%，在这个之间的，叫做sideways market（或者非正式叫法crab market）
#54 Re: 我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
厉害，LZ的分析水平起码超过一半的当红财经播主，以及当红版友了。长冬瓜 写了： 2025年 3月 12日 15:04
[5月14日更新]
为什么我比版上的熊熊们预判的更准确，因为我比你们更了解Trump。版上有几个人认真读过他写的 The Art of the Deal？认真读过你就知道，虚张声势是他一贯的获利手法。操控对手的心理，增加手里虚拟筹码，获得更多利润，他把这个叫做truthful hyperbole。这个关税战他还会继续玩，但不管怎么玩，他不会让实体经济受损的，你们去看看他第一任期的经济情况就知道第二任期会怎么走了。
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Disclaimer: 我从来没有炒过股，连交易账户都没有。因为研究课题涉及股市，知道一些理论的东西。所以，瞎猜的哈
I don’t have any stock market positions—my predictions are purely out of academic interest. I don’t trade, so whether the market goes up or down, I’m just here to analyze the trends.
#56 Re: 我相信SP500会回到6000的，今年不会熊市
厉害，明天去H-mart买长冬瓜
感觉大盘还是靠几个mega cap在拉。
个股很多明显是顶：cmg，tgt
上次由 noktard 在 2025年 6月 6日 20:04 修改。