回顾和展望乌克兰情况

[meiyoumajia]

[wokao]

斯大林当初非把西乌克兰吞并进来，是不合适的

西乌克兰从来就不是沙俄的领土，而西白俄罗斯是。现在看来西白俄罗斯没闹。

10多年前，乌克兰差不多一半人偏向俄国。
但在那之前，乌克兰就已经在朝乌克兰族化方向快速行走。2007年，与纳粹合作并屠杀数万波兰平民的Shukhevych被正式尊为乌克兰国家英雄。 2010年，bandera也被尊为。。。

北约的代理人战争/大冲突从2014年政变/乌克兰内战时就正式开始了。2014年至少有3个外国出生的人成了部长。
minsk协议允许顿巴斯高度自治，但乌克兰不（愿意）履行。主推它的德国女总理后来也称那些谈判只是为了给乌克兰争取（军事上加强它的）时间。
2022年，俄国称乌克兰有2月底到3月初进攻（以完全解决顿巴斯问题）。乌克兰的大多数精锐都被布置到了乌东。
俄罗斯先发制人，从多个方向入侵乌克兰，基本只是乌克兰内部残杀大升级变成了北约+乌对俄战争，俄乌之间大残杀正式开始。

现在乌克兰弱势明显，北约（部分国家）在考虑派部分部队进入某些地区行驶某种职责。

乌克兰的未来有多种不小的可能。
一种比较大的：乌克兰会被分裂成几小块。其中有一块会事实上被罗马尼亚掌控。（在几个月前普京正式讲话中，他特别表示：对罗马尼亚人区没有兴趣。对乌克兰的galicia和匈牙利地区也表示没有兴趣，但没拿它们举例。）

（台湾会成为同类代理吗？）

[meiyoumajia]

beautiful

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

直升机组太猖狂！

[meiyoumajia]

在deepstate与乌克兰国防部正式合作后

[meiyoumajia]

这种“线条式”子母弹轰击似乎变得更加常见
我大概在2个月以前第一次看到。“圆圈式”子母弹更常见。
也许只是弹的飞行方向与地面夹角较小而造成的视觉

[meiyoumajia]

fab-250 100公斤TNT

relatively safe at 15 meters away
so, don't panic so that our legs give us up
we should run away for our lives
of course, one of us must see it coming from afar






however, i don't know what to say about the bigger ones

fab-500 300公斤TNT
fab-1000 485公斤TNT

[meiyoumajia]

in the past few months, i saw quite a few videos showing just a single artillery shot would destroy its target
(the surrounding is visually all clear/smoke-free before the impact)

they could be self-guided bombs

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... raine-war/

Russia has ramped up military production by replenishing stocks of standard weapons and ammunition and probably can sustain its onslaught in Ukraine for at least the next two years, analysts say — a sobering assessment for Kyiv, which is short on weapons and soldiers and losing ground on the battlefield.


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In recent months, top Russian officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, have claimed record numbers, reporting to Putin that the military-industrial complex has quadrupled production of armored vehicles, quintupled the supply of tanks and boosted manufacturing of drones and artillery shells by nearly 17 times.


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But last month, the head of Russia’s defense manufacturer, Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, said the Armata will not be deployed in Ukraine because of its high cost.

“Of course, it is much superior to other tanks in terms of functionality, but it is too expensive,” Chemezov said, according to state media. “Therefore, the army is unlikely to use it now. It’s easier to buy T-90.”

Neither the manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, nor officials have disclosed the cost of the tank, but in 2011, Russian experts estimated it to be around $7.9 million, compared with about $3.6 million for the T-90S modification.

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To circumvent sanctions, Russia has forged new supply chains to obtain Western components for high-tech military equipment, with parts routed through Turkey, China and Kazakhstan, experts said, as the West has struggled with enforcement.

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Russia also has sought basic raw materials. Officials in the Baltics last month called for banning sales of manganese ore, a key component in steel and alloy production, after Estonian media reported that supplies to Russia had surged — often via Estonian and Latvian ports.
Russia has also managed to acquire supplies of nitrocellulose, a compound needed to produce explosives such as artillery shells, according to a report by Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies, including from Germany, Taiwan and China.