新未名空间

非视而不见

在路上开车太耗油

为了环保，他们


Either the diggers of the Black Sea, or some Wahhabis are wandering somewhere from Bakhmut

新时期到了
戈登章/张露脸的机会又多了
会有更多

那是骨子里与祖宗地做对的人的领袖，本版有几个人应该与他取得联系，现在结伴，将来接班


有一重要点：中国过去差不多有10年每年军费增长是7%上下，而那之前是10%以上
这些大媒体啊，连基本的调查都不会去做。不过，调查细了，说太清楚了，话题就少了，观众就会散了太多。

慎入

慎入视频

慎入



https://t.me/+KecdSC9CazBhZGY6

SHOOTING OF A FUCKER OF THE APU - DETAILS

A video has appeared on the network, where supposedly our military men are shooting a sadist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (the full video of the execution without censorship is available at the link), many began to wonder where the video came from, who executed him: theirs or ours?

Horrible details surfaced right now, activists caught this sadist in the Zaliznyansky district near Bakhmut, tied him up and began to interrogate him. The activists recorded and posted a HORRIBLE three-hour interrogation, this Nazi, with a smile on his ears, told how he tortured the prisoners, how he mocked every mobilized soldier. There are not enough words to describe everything that this monster did, watch the full interrogation in our channel and you will understand why you should hate him so much.

00:01 - interrogation, where he tells how he mocked our fighters
01:56 - footage of a tough interrogation where they learn the details of how he mocked and humiliated the soldiers
02:33 - lead to reprisal and the reprisal itself is available at the link - https://t.me/+K27ltIo_dQ0zZmVi
Click on the timecode and go to the full video

This pig deserved worse than death, everyone should go, look and find out what this scum did to the soldiers - https://t.me/+K27ltIo_dQ0zZmVi

俄国与西欧已经进入小冷战时期。

如果中国与美国及其小兄弟们的关系（由于复杂纠结的多种因素----主要开始与川普时期）继续朝变坏方向滑个不停，最后会出现新版的大冷战。由于现在中西方经济关系有很大的牵连，欧洲有几个国家差不多半陷于俄乌战争的泥潭，中西要发展到那个地步还需要若干年的时间。

智商87以上的人都该知道：南斯拉夫的问题与乌克兰问题在在族群上有很大的相似之处，但是西方要拆散（冷战时期其实算是较中立的）南斯拉夫，而却要帮助（苏联的主要部分）乌克兰的“领土完整”。对中国境内外的分离组织却捧着护着，而且会帮着大做宣传。

这种双标出现的根本原因在于对自身利益和牵涉的复杂利益关系考虑。很像某种根除不掉的国家系统之外的社会组织：做独一无二的老大的那个，得有一帮利益上与自己没有太大冲突的兄弟，其中必须有几个差不多是亦步亦趋能同甘共苦的铁杆，而且兄弟中没人能够真正挑战自己的地位。不很像才怪了。：-）

有了一个强的组织基础，就可以定标准和尺度，也“为”别人/组织外的人。

为什么会那样呢？

西方兴起在很大程度上是靠强取豪夺的基础上，强权上。西班牙、英国、法国、俄罗斯、荷兰和葡萄牙等群雄都是要做各地甚至全球老大的竞争者。

美国是最后一个，但也是持续发展最强的，是过去100多年来做老大时间最长，也是最强的唯一一个。因此很多人相当有理由认为20世纪是美国的世纪。在鸦片战争开始时，美国的本土膨胀还只刚刚完成了一大半。而到甲午战争时，美国差不多也才把加州和周边地区还有阿拉斯加算是强化得比较好。（斯坦福大学应该是在1898年建立。斯坦福很靠铁路起家。49er那个名字具有很强的历史性。。。）而夏威夷还在继续美化中。欧洲人认为有的美国人的过分自信是基于上个世纪50年+20？年整体上的经济实力然后军事和战争取利/得利的暴力增长而“天生”的。。。做惯了老大，那就容不得地位有所威胁，哪怕在局部区。

可是，世界从来没有什么永远的的存在。没有什么是天生的或必然的。如果信那，中国和世界各地的很多底层就会永无翻身可能。谁信谁傻。

长话短说。还是围绕在下面若干个若干分钟内最该被关注的中国。中国有2000多年的世界级大国的历史，很高比例的人还有传统的大国和强国人的心态。近代开始经历过了各种屈辱。。。长话短说。。。是平均智商高于100的人群。有上2亿的人高于110。上5000万的人高于120。上1500万的人高于135（因此中国人才特别优秀，有特别大的潜力；-）。在比较公平的竞争环境下，绝大多数中国人很努力，可以做得明显好于周围的人群，无论在哪里。。。长话短说，中国人经过几十年的努力和 用心，变强了变得更有了信心。追赶组织的脚步还在加快。口里还喊着急啊。

问题就一个个出来了。首先是被组织更注意到了。最主要还是老大有些慌了。正好有个从小可能就喜欢做老大的川普上台了。。。中美关系的一个新时代开启了。。。

。。。

然后。。。

然后俄乌开始了。。。然后中国更担心自己是下一个了。。。然后。。。

最后就成了现在的样子。

从当今老大和老二的一个故事/旧事展开谈谈老大的特权和话语权

老大总有“red line”。这个词好像太不容易被别人用。别人若要用，那也得更小心地用。

谈谈古巴导弹事件。会被宣扬得传世世代代。
但是，它几乎是起于美国把导弹安在了土耳其一个地方。那里离苏联境内只有13英里x10。导弹在10分钟左右可以拥抱苏联几乎所有的重要工业区。

。。。

最后双方都撤了导弹了事。但大多数人应该只是更懂得了古巴的极高存在感。


伊朗曾经相当西化，城市妇女地位还行，古巴也曾经很美化，但。。。完了。
阿富汗曾经很开化，城市妇女地位平等，。。。但完了。

卡斯特罗开始并不是社会主义或共产主义者。上台时候都不是。至少在推翻亲美的腐败政府1年之后才为了经济而被迫投向苏联。而苏联在阿富汗完全失败，但阿富汗变成现在的样子有些阿拉伯国家和西方是有重要责任的。

因此，老大和地方老大们太强硬或者乱搅局会有最终难以预料的结果。

现在中美就在一个关键阶段。因此中国不要过度进乌克兰搅局，美国和组织也不该逼太狠。处理不好，它们也会不好受。

中美俄关系的重要点。

俄国是资源大国。
中国是部分重要资源紧缺大国。需要俄国、中东和非洲的自然资源。
中国对俄国最大的碰击点是它的传统影响地区：中亚地区。中国搞一带一路与它的（至少在战略上）利益有不小冲突，但俄国已经越来越没有能力影响中亚了，也没法顾及中国对那里越来越多的影响。俄乌战争更让那方面变得对俄国不是最重要。

对中国，马六甲海峡是资源来源的瓶颈。因此中国南海才那么重要，中国长远最大的经济发展伙伴也必须是东南亚，目标大概会是变成同一个经济圈，但与美国有某种程度的竞争，印度也会有些不甘（但现在也没有实力做什么）。俄国的资源给中国发展提供了很强的保障。因此中国也只有选择与俄国发展比较紧密的战略关系。

历史上越南本是中国的势力范围，经历了短期的文化/语言改造但还是没有脱离东亚文化圈，而心理上的隔阂被更加深了。。。在冷战时期与中国关系比较微妙。后来那场战争。。。美国又想在那里推动中越隔阂。而中国南海问题对中越是个不小的梗，会让中越在情感上不容易走近----只有尽量先在经济上努力把它套入中国圈内。

北约在战略上包围俄罗斯，与美国在战略上要压缩中国的空间很相似。美国带着北约甚至日（更甚至韩菲）围堵中国，只会逼着中俄相互帮助走得更近，并且让中国尽量先用经济稳定与地区国家发展很实际的关系，然后再一步步尽量稳地走下去。

中国的最低的底线是美国让台湾问题过于恶化。如果美国/北约逼得太狠，那中国可能会秘密/通过第三方把自己巨量的俄/苏产武器转回给俄国，让它们在欧洲耗着吃亏。弄不好，台湾海峡会发生与现在特别不一样的情况都有较高的可能。

扒开各种外壳，涉及中国的对外基本情况就差不多是这样。

Military Expert Boris Rozhin on the Situation in the #Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut) Sector as in the Evening of 7 Mar 2023; pub. 23:54

1. The Situation for the Enemy in the city has deteriorated overnight. There are results of fire control over the roads.

2. Despite Reports of Withdrawal of some units, the enemy does not abandon attempts to hold the defences in the western and part of the central parts of the city.
There is a political objective to hold #Bakhmut at all costs, which is being met by hard defences within the city limits and attempts to hold the townships of #Krasnoye, #Khromovo and #Bogdanov, despite pressure from Wagner assault squads near #Bogdanov and #Krasnoye.
There is pressure from the West to abandon #Bakhmut, but Kiev has become hostage to its propaganda campaign to hold the town.

3. There is a Redeployment of reserves to hold the city, which were intended for the #Kupyansk, Krasny #Liman and #Zaporozhye directions. They are insurance in case Wagner breaks through AFU defences near #Khromovo and closes the cauldron. Then the reserves will be used for counterstrikes near #Berkhovka, #Yagodnoye and #Khromovo.

4. Part of the Reserves have already been deployed for counterstrikes in the direction of #Kleshchiyevka and #Krasnoye. Their task is to push back our troops from the road to #Bakhmut via #Krasnoye and formally continue supplying the defending forces in the city, bringing in at least something at night despite shelling.
The road is now virtually inaccessible. Attempts by AFU counterattacks to deblock it have failed due to the good work of our attackers, spotters and Wagner artillery, which have dampened the enemy's efforts.

5. Prigozhin Stressed that the shell conflict with the Ministry of Defence is still unresolved. Hardware friction should affect the pace of the operation in #Artyomovsk.
Defence Minister Shoigu said today that the enemy lost 11,000 men in #Artyomovsk in February.
Prigozhin noted that the enemy has 12-20 thousand people in #Artyomovsk (the city, #Krasnoye, #Khromovo, and Chasov Yar).
Part of the enemy reserves are concentrated near Chasov Yar. They intend to use operational reserves near #Konstantinovka and #Kramatorsk in case the crisis becomes operational.

6. In the Middle and Third Week of March they will have the question of a final withdrawal from the city or a road deblocking.
The AFU in #Artyomovsk has a certain stockpile of arms and ammunition, including heavy weapons, but with the roads cut off and the intensity of fighting like this, the stockpile will be used up very quickly. The situation in #Severodonetsk and #Mariupol will repeat itself, when the enemy defended in the presence of heavy weapons, but after the ammunition for tanks, "Grads" ran out, it became much harder for them and much easier for us.
Therefore, supply issues play a crucial role in predicting the pace of the liberation of the city.

7. By the Evening of 7 March 2023. 45-52% of Bakhmut's territory is under the control of Wagner PMC assault squads.

Boris Rozhin specially for Voenkor Kotenok Z Channel