新未名空间

Gateway pundit好像是川粉最喜欢的媒体啊？几年前川粉最喜欢转载GP的新闻了。

这个数据很可靠，在库尔斯克战役结束的时候哥预测当时乌军死了120万，现在170万差不多。俄乌战死率哥估计是1：8，所以大毛大概死了20万人。毛子死得最多的其实是战争初期，比如阿特米战役，现在少很多。

_notalandlord 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 19:16

精神鼓励俄罗斯再干一百年

Casualty 一般来说都是伤亡，包括失踪被俘，中文对应的是减员。

lahei 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 18:06

casuality 一般是死亡

完全不可能，按照1:3死死伤比，乌克兰军队总减员500万以上，这没有任何可能性。我估计俄乌伤亡都是一两百万。

F1450 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 19:29

这个数据很可靠，在库尔斯克战役结束的时候哥预测当时乌军死了120万，现在170万差不多。俄乌战死率哥估计是1：8，所以大毛大概死了20万人。毛子死得最多的其实是战争初期，比如阿特米战役，现在少很多。

ridgway 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 19:31

完全不可能，按照1:3死死伤比，乌克兰军队总减员500万以上，这没有任何可能性。我估计俄乌伤亡都是一两百万。

lahei 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 18:06

casuality 一般是死亡

建议查查字典

casualty指的是伤亡，或者说减员，下面副标题不就说了死亡和重伤吗？

The number of dead and seriously wounded Ukrainians is apparently much higher than imagined.

Atack 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 16:38

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/0 ... ffered-17/

黑客公开了详细的记录和图片．

Atack 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 16:38

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/0 ... ffered-17/

黑客公开了详细的记录和图片．

伤亡比按3:1算，乌克兰一共伤亡680万。
乌克兰一共多少18-60岁的男子？

乌克兰18-65男子大概也就700万左右，也就是说全部伤亡了，这100%不可能的。

Approximately 6.6 to 6.9 million Ukrainian men were estimated to be between the ages of 18 and 64 in 2024, according to Statista and Russia Matters. This estimate is based on the age structure of the Ukrainian population and the proportion of males within that age range, according to CEIC Data.

why2022 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 20:18

伤亡比按3:1算，乌克兰一共伤亡680万。
乌克兰一共多少18-60岁的男子？

按照WSJ的说法，截至2024年9月，俄乌双方的总伤亡达到了100万。现在又过了一年，最多再加100万，而就是说俄乌双方总伤亡200万左右，乌克兰军队伤亡六七百万是根本不可能的。

https://www.wsj.com/world/one-million-a ... r-b09d04e5

F1450 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 19:33

你个呆巴子还是少和我争辩，你们1450水平很差。

军盲，casualties 包括 KIA, WIA, MIA

lahei 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 18:06

casuality 一般是死亡

造这个谣的五毛严重缺乏基本军事和人口学常识

https://www.britannica.com/question/Wha ... kraine-War

What are the military casualty estimates for the Russia-Ukraine War?
Written by
Last Updated: Aug 19, 2025

Military casualty counts are contested, with Ukraine and Russia closely guarding data about their forces.

In December 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 370,000 injured since February 2022; he also said 198,000 Russian soldiers had been killed and 550,000 injured. None of these claims was verifiable; Russia has said its losses are less than Ukraine’s.

The New York Times has cited U.S. intelligence sources claiming, as of August 2023, estimated Russian losses of 120,000 dead and 170,000–180,000 wounded as well as estimated Ukrainian losses of 70,000 dead and 100,000–120,000 wounded. British and European officials have also made estimates, while independent researchers and journalists have used open-source data to count losses.

In June 2025, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington, D.C., released an analysis that estimated Russian military deaths and injuries would reach one million during the summer of 2025. It also estimated Ukrainian military casualties since 2022 to be 400,000, including an estimated 60,000–100,000 soldiers killed.

F1450 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 19:33

你个呆巴子还是少和我争辩，你们1450水平很差。

俄罗斯宣传机器制造的假新闻

Russian propaganda is circulating a fabricated narrative alleging that Russian hackers breached the Ukrainian General Staff’s database and obtained information about “1.7 million dead and missing Ukrainian service members” since the start of the full-scale war.

This was reported on Telegram by Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), under the National Security and Defense Council, according to Ukrinform.

“Kremlin-controlled propaganda outlets are spreading claims that Russian hackers allegedly breached the General Staff’s database and obtained information about ‘1.7 million dead and missing Ukrainian soldiers’ since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In reality, this is an utterly absurd fake, as Ukraine has never had a standing army of 1.7 million personnel throughout its independence,” the statement reads.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine, as of August 20, 2025, Russian forces have suffered 1,072,700 casualties — killed and wounded — since February 24, 2022, effectively debunking the fabricated figures promoted by Russian propaganda.
Read also: Russian propaganda tries to portray Alaskans as welcoming Putin

“The goal of this fake is to demoralize Ukrainians, convince the world of the ‘exhaustion and ineffectiveness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,’ and weaken international support for Ukraine,” the CCD stressed.

As reported by Ukrinform, in the past 24 hours, Russian forces lost another 920 troops and 50 artillery systems in the war against Ukraine.

Atack 写了： 2025年 8月 20日 16:38

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/0 ... ffered-17/

黑客公开了详细的记录和图片．

扯鸡巴蛋，找到这个数字的、发出这个数字的都是他妈弱智。。。根本没经大脑。。黑客年轻没鸡吧见识就算了，转发新闻的纯属脑残。。。

估计克兰伤亡大几十万可能会有。。。但死亡170万，，，，卧槽！

这种鸡吧小规模点对点小战斗性质双方打打闹闹，怎么可能和韩战的烈度比较？

韩战共军充其量也就百多万伤亡，几十万死亡（官方十几万，叔认为至少30-50万死亡），鸡吧鸟克兰都是小打小闹怎么可能。。最多死亡十几万吧。。。

marclee 写了： 2025年 8月 21日 00:52

扯鸡巴蛋，找到这个数字的、发出这个数字的都是他妈弱智。。。根本没经大脑。。黑客年轻没鸡吧见识就算了，转发新闻的纯属脑残。。。

估计克兰伤亡大几十万可能会有。。。但死亡170万，，，，卧槽！

这种鸡吧小规模点对点小战斗性质双方打打闹闹，怎么可能和韩战的烈度比较？

韩战共军充其量也就百多万伤亡，几十万死亡（官方十几万，叔认为至少30-50万死亡），鸡吧鸟克兰都是小打小闹怎么可能。。最多死亡十几万吧。。。

俄乌战争和朝鲜战争兵力相当，都是百万级别， 但是火力更猛，朝鲜战争消耗的重炮弹也就２０００万发，而俄罗斯发射的重炮早就超过了２０００万发．俄罗斯的千磅滑翔弹杀伤比朝鲜战争猛多了，另外，短程导弹和海量的无人机也是朝鲜战争没有的．俄乌许多前线被无人机的光纤密密麻麻都铺成网了，可以想象有多惨烈．

朝鲜战争双方战死士兵近百万，平民２００万．俄乌战死２００万是很自然的．

战争的火力是随着时代越来越猛的，海湾战争美国轰炸伊拉克第一天就号称投下了相当于广岛原子弹2倍的弹药量，但是真正杀人人数远低于广岛原子弹。朝战火力比二战猛，杀人效率低于二战。越战火力比韩战更猛，海湾战争又超过了越战。

死伤比1：3基本还是适用的，如果乌克兰战死170万军人，那么死伤总计就要超过六百万，这是完全不可能的，乌克兰总人口不过4000万，适龄服役男子大约六七百万，如果至今已经有六百万军队伤亡，那么你在整个乌克兰应该看不到一个成年男子，这显然不符合事实。

俄乌各自伤亡（死伤合计）100万左右是比较合理的。纯死亡最多几十万。

Atack 写了： 2025年 8月 21日 12:06

俄乌战争和朝鲜战争兵力相当，都是百万级别， 但是火力更猛，朝鲜战争消耗的重炮弹也就２０００万发，而俄罗斯发射的重炮早就超过了２０００万发．俄罗斯的千磅滑翔弹杀伤比朝鲜战争猛多了，另外，短程导弹和海量的无人机也是朝鲜战争没有的．俄乌许多前线被无人机的光纤密密麻麻都铺成网了，可以想象有多惨烈．

朝鲜战争双方战死士兵近百万，平民２００万．俄乌战死２００万是很自然的．

造这个谣的五毛严重缺乏基本军事和人口学常识

https://www.britannica.com/question/Wha ... kraine-War

What are the military casualty estimates for the Russia-Ukraine War?
Written by
Last Updated: Aug 19, 2025

Military casualty counts are contested, with Ukraine and Russia closely guarding data about their forces.

In December 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 370,000 injured since February 2022; he also said 198,000 Russian soldiers had been killed and 550,000 injured. None of these claims was verifiable; Russia has said its losses are less than Ukraine’s.

The New York Times has cited U.S. intelligence sources claiming, as of August 2023, estimated Russian losses of 120,000 dead and 170,000–180,000 wounded as well as estimated Ukrainian losses of 70,000 dead and 100,000–120,000 wounded. British and European officials have also made estimates, while independent researchers and journalists have used open-source data to count losses.

In June 2025, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington, D.C., released an analysis that estimated Russian military deaths and injuries would reach one million during the summer of 2025. It also estimated Ukrainian military casualties since 2022 to be 400,000, including an estimated 60,000–100,000 soldiers killed.

Atack 写了： 2025年 8月 21日 12:06

俄乌战争和朝鲜战争兵力相当，都是百万级别， 但是火力更猛，朝鲜战争消耗的重炮弹也就２０００万发，而俄罗斯发射的重炮早就超过了２０００万发．俄罗斯的千磅滑翔弹杀伤比朝鲜战争猛多了，另外，短程导弹和海量的无人机也是朝鲜战争没有的．俄乌许多前线被无人机的光纤密密麻麻都铺成网了，可以想象有多惨烈．

朝鲜战争双方战死士兵近百万，平民２００万．俄乌战死２００万是很自然的．

乌克兰虽然有700万成年男子年龄在18-60之间，但是真正适合服役的只有大约一半，即300多万。这也证明了乌克兰军队伤亡600万是完全不可能的。

There were approximately 7.35 million men aged 18-60 in Ukraine as of 2023, based on a 2023 population estimate of 36.7 million and the country's age structure, which showed approximately 19.9% of the population in this age range. However, the exact number of males in this age group eligible for military service is much lower due to factors like emigration, disability, and deployment outside the country, with one estimate suggesting only 3.7 million are eligible for mobilization.
Calculation Details:

Total Population: The estimated total population of Ukraine in 2023 was around 36.7 million.

Men in 18-60 Age Range: The age structure for Ukraine shows that 19.9% of the population is in the 15-64 age range. Since approximately 50% of the population is male, that would mean roughly 19.9% of the total population consists of males in this age range. Therefore, 36.7 million * 0.199 * 0.5 = approximately 3.66 million, so this is around 7.35 million males.
Conscription Eligibility: This figure does not reflect the number of men currently serving or potentially able to serve. Factors like deaths, emigration, and disabilities reduce the number of men available for conscription

Atack 写了： 2025年 8月 21日 12:06

俄乌战争和朝鲜战争兵力相当，都是百万级别， 但是火力更猛，朝鲜战争消耗的重炮弹也就２０００万发，而俄罗斯发射的重炮早就超过了２０００万发．俄罗斯的千磅滑翔弹杀伤比朝鲜战争猛多了，另外，短程导弹和海量的无人机也是朝鲜战争没有的．俄乌许多前线被无人机的光纤密密麻麻都铺成网了，可以想象有多惨烈．

朝鲜战争双方战死士兵近百万，平民２００万．俄乌战死２００万是很自然的．

美军在上甘岭的火力比二战猛的多，但是实际杀伤效果并不好。上甘岭志愿军死亡不过几千人。

Atack 写了： 2025年 8月 21日 12:06

俄乌战争和朝鲜战争兵力相当，都是百万级别， 但是火力更猛，朝鲜战争消耗的重炮弹也就２０００万发，而俄罗斯发射的重炮早就超过了２０００万发．俄罗斯的千磅滑翔弹杀伤比朝鲜战争猛多了，另外，短程导弹和海量的无人机也是朝鲜战争没有的．俄乌许多前线被无人机的光纤密密麻麻都铺成网了，可以想象有多惨烈．

朝鲜战争双方战死士兵近百万，平民２００万．俄乌战死２００万是很自然的．