版主： kazaawang， wh
wh 写了： 2025年 9月 4日 22:27那为啥标题说不亡啊？
是内部和平演变，共产主义性质不变？我记得那些年回国时老听国内人说中共可能内部分裂为两党，就会过渡到美国这样的两党制。后来就没人说了，估计没有分裂的可能性了。你当时也想着这个吗？分裂出来的两党依然都属于共产党，所以不亡？可也不变色啊
亡肯定是要亡的，时间问题，只是比预料的晚，我们这代应该看不到。假如分裂也是体制内出来的人继续掌权，类似前苏联那些加盟共和国，但也搞不好军阀混战。真要是分裂，共产党一定会被清算，因为我党干的坏事太多了，所以无论谁掌权都会借党妈的脑袋一用，因为这样才能抢占法理和道德高地。
datoumao 写了： 2025年 9月 4日 23:05亡肯定是要亡的，时间问题，只是比预料的晚，我们这代应该看不到。假如分裂也是体制内出来的人继续掌权，类似前苏联那些加盟共和国，但也搞不好军阀混战。真要是分裂，共产党一定会被清算，因为我党干的坏事太多了，所以无论谁掌权都会借党妈的脑袋一用，因为这样才能抢占法理和道德高地。
没那么糟吧？从打败列强，统一中国，到跻身第二大国，虽然期间很多曲折和伤亡，但整体趋势是往上的啊。否则都差点灭国了……
datoumao 写了： 2025年 9月 4日 17:59其实我当年对祖国也曾抱有希望，回头看完全误判。
中共不亡记
－2014
王朝之倾，必有三端：民心去；反者起；权力散。是三者具，则天下易主。
今夫当世，中共和民，势若水火。怨声载道，民心已失，此其一也。然反者未成气候，豪强未有割据，二端尚阙。
观夫海内外之反共，声虽喧然，势实寡弱；能振臂而合天下者，未之见也。诸派林立，党争不已，四分五裂，莫能协力。至于斯民，信仰久绝，志节既衰，好逸恶劳，苟且偷安，虽怨尤而不愿动。国势方隆，民生较安，岂可鼓之使起？是以共得以无忧。
自江退而涛进，十年政柄不振，群雄各起，南海角力，几有分裂之兆。然涛得机，全身而退，传位于习。习承红统，三权在握，雷霆手段，能斩庙堂之虎，亦缉江湖之鳖；整肃百官，官吏人人自危，百姓奔走相告，一洗积习。由是中共之势，复固若金汤矣。
嗟夫！改朝换代，非易事也。昔日太祖乘寇乱之天时，军阀割据之地利，蒋氏失民心之人和，兼马列之教，方能成事。然功过是非，皆天人使然耳。炎黄子孙，岂忍复见兵戈再起，生灵涂炭哉？
今观之，共产之名虽在，实已不存；为世所弃，必将随时日而渐变。既与列国并处，终随历史之潮而改色。
五星出东方，天佑中华！
反王现在还是没有出头啊，指望法拉盛那些总统去领导推翻产党不现实
datoumao 写了： 2025年 9月 4日 21:29反共啊，但也挺矛盾的。想想这么大个国家死了那么多人再差也总算稳定下来，最差的情况应该过去了，否极泰来不是，如果再折腾一遍试问谁愿再做乱世人，喊打喊杀倒是痛快，真来了血肉横飞可不是好玩的，而且又要付出无数生命作代价，试问你愿意成为那个代价的一部分吗。再看海外这些独运轮法拉盛的大总统总统夫人们为那点狗粮相互侵轧，弹丸之地山头林立也难成事，所以不如抱着美好愿望期待它慢慢改变吧。不想这厮倒行逆施变本加厉把中国人民绑上了战车，也算看走眼吧，好在我发现的早。
绑上战车可能性不大，但是搞大抑制回到穷民穷逼苦逼傻逼的年代妥妥的
2014年我刚开始玩微信发朋友圈，不管国内还是美国的朋友都其乐融融，那年罗振宇的罗辑思维节目大火，自由主义是墙内的主旋律。随即215年大阅兵，南海填岛，19大，厉害了我的国，直至新冠头两年，国内的民族主义鸡血一路膨胀到不忍直视的地步。回头看2014年是顶点最好的年份了
擦，共产党什么时候打败过列强，你要是把印度越南算成列强那当我没说，苏联珍宝岛确实干过一次，不过那个时候苏联根本无暇来全面搞老毛，美帝也不允许
格局小了。哥伦比亚大学大儒Adam Tooze都已经开始给中共辩经了。这哪里是要亡的节奏？
China is one of the master keys to understanding modernity. I would be tempted to say that it is “the” master key. Except that I am too much of a pluralist to want to claim that there is a single master key.
We should be profoundly skeptical about any application of cookie-cutter social science models to China. Not just on general methodological grounds. But because of scale and historic weight. … After all, the entire dataset of middle-income cases is like six Chinese provinces. … This is the biggest laboratory of organized modernizations there has ever been or ever will be at this level organization. So, that changes this game. All of our previous social theoretic theorizing was a prelude … the Industrial History of the West was a preface to China’s industrial history.
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartb ... on-travels
刁夶自称
70岁的小孩
ccmath 写了： 2025年 9月 5日 17:40格局小了。哥伦比亚大学大儒Adam Tooze都已经开始给中共辩经了。这哪里是要亡的节奏？
China is one of the master keys to understanding modernity. I would be tempted to say that it is “the” master key. Except that I am too much of a pluralist to want to claim that there is a single master key.
We should be profoundly skeptical about any application of cookie-cutter social science models to China. Not just on general methodological grounds. But because of scale and historic weight. … After all, the entire dataset of middle-income cases is like six Chinese provinces. … This is the biggest laboratory of organized modernizations there has ever been or ever will be at this level organization. So, that changes this game. All of our previous social theoretic theorizing was a prelude … the Industrial History of the West was a preface to China’s industrial history.
把中国抬得那么高啊……这人是研究中国历史的？中国的发展是很特别，这人或许不是吹捧，是认真的？不过中国的发展好像受个人的影响很大，个人可以打破制度的约束，那就不是任何理论模式可以预测的。希望以后的人受教育越来越好，素质越来越高，国家也发展得好，中国美国都一样
我订bbc新闻，不过经常来不及或不仔细看 刚找了找，果然有这条新闻。bbc很认真地探讨了长寿可能需要反复移植多个器官，这样是否可行，以及是否真能活到150岁 也提到了版上讨论过的换血浆的Bryan Johnson。
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1w9z72r6o
Organ transplants for immortality: Might Xi and Putin be onto something?
2 days ago
Michelle RobertsDigital health editor, BBC News
Is it possible to become immortal with the help of organ transplants? That was the unexpected topic of discussion this week between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin when they met at a military parade in Beijing.
...
Ticket to eternal life?
Putin and Xi may be talking about having multiple organs transplanted and perhaps repeatedly.
Having surgery is a big undertaking, though, with significant risks. Each time you go under the knife you are rolling the dice.
Currently, people who get a new organ also have to take strong anti-rejection drugs called immunosuppressants for life. These can have side-effects, such as high blood pressure, and increase the risk of infections.
Rejection - when your immune system starts to attack the transplanted organ because it recognises it as coming from a different person - can sometimes still happen even if you are taking your medication.
Tailor-made organs
Scientists are working on making rejection-free organs, using genetically-altered pigs as the donors.
They use a gene editing tool known as crispr to remove some of the pig genes and add certain human genes to make the organ more compatible.
Breeding special pigs for this is ideal, say experts, since their organs are roughly the right size for people.
The science is still extremely experimental, but a heart and a kidney operation have gone ahead.
The two men who agreed to having the procedures were pioneers of this new field of transplantation medicine.
Both have since died but helped advance xenotransplantation - the transplanting of living cells, tissues or organs from one species to another.
Another avenue being explored is growing brand new organs using our own human cells.
Stem cells have the ability to grow into any type of cell or tissue found in the body.
No research group has yet been able to make fully functional, transplantable human organs, but scientists are getting closer.
In December 2020, UK researchers UCL and the Francis Crick Institute rebuilt a human thymus - an essential organ in the immune system - using human stem cells and a bioengineered scaffold.
When transplanted into mice as a test, it appeared to work.
And scientists at Great Ormond Street Hospital in London say they have grown human intestinal grafts using stem cells from patient tissue that could one day lead to personalised transplants for children with intestinal failure.
But these advances are for treating ill health, rather than keeping people alive to 150.
Tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson, meanwhile, is spending millions a year trying to reduce his biological age.
He's not tried getting new organs yet - as far as we know - but has infused himself with his 17-year-old son's plasma.
He's since stopped that, after seeing no benefits and increased medical scrutiny from organisations such as the Food and Drug Administration.
Dr Julian Mutz from King's College London said beyond organ transplantation, approaches like plasma replacement are being explored, but these remain experimental.
"Whether such strategies will have a meaningful impact on lifespan, particularly maximum human lifespan, remains uncertain, though it is an area of considerable scientific interest."
Prof Neil Mabbott, an expert in immunopathology at the Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, speculates that living to 125 years old might be the upper limit.
"The verified oldest living person was a Frenchwoman, Jeanne Calment who lived for 122 years, between 1875 and1997, " he told BBC News.
And while damaged and diseased organs may be replaceable by transplants, as we age our bodies become much less resilient or able to cope with physical stressors.
"We begin to respond less effectively to infections, and our bodies become more frail, prone to injury and are less able to recover and repair.
"The stress, trauma and impact of transplant surgery, alongside the continued use of immunosuppressive drugs required to prevent rejection of the transplanted organs would be too severe in patients of such advanced age."
He says rather than focussing on extending life-span, we should instead strive for healthy years lived.
Prof Mabbott said: "Living a lot longer, but suffering from the multiple morbidities that can accompany ageing, and in-and-out of hospital for another tissue transplant does not sound an attractive way to spend my retirement!"
