#21 Re: 第一次觉得中国搞出 光刻机了，直接封禁了NVDA
Background and Timeline
The saga reflects escalating U.S.-China tensions over AI dominance:
2022: U.S. bans exports of Nvidia's high-end H100 and A100 GPUs to China over national security fears.
Early 2025: Trump administration imposes a broader halt on Nvidia's China sales, prompting smuggling and repair booms for banned chips in Shenzhen.
July 2025: U.S. lifts restrictions on H20 and RTX Pro 6000D sales after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang lobbies Trump; a deal requires 15% of H20 Chinese sales to fund U.S. initiatives.
August 2025: Nvidia pauses H20 production amid U.S. scrutiny on the upcoming Blackwell B30 (still pending export approval). China probes H20 for "backdoors" and security risks.
September 2025: CAC issues the ban, coinciding with an anti-monopoly accusation against Nvidia.
This reversal— from U.S. blocking exports to China blocking imports—has been called a "policy f*ckup" for Washington, as it accelerated Beijing's chip development. Three years ago, U.S. controls were predicted to "collapse" China's semiconductor industry; instead, they've turbocharged it, with firms like Huawei closing the gap.
Reactions and Market Impact
Nvidia's Response: CEO Jensen Huang, speaking in London ahead of a state dinner with President Trump, expressed "disappointment," stating, "We can only be in service of a market if the country wants us to be." He emphasized Nvidia's contributions to China but deferred to U.S.-China "larger agendas," adding that both Trump and Xi Jinping "want their countries to win—and it's possible for both." Nvidia denies any chip backdoors.
U.S. Officials: House Speaker Mike Johnson labeled China a U.S. "adversary," accusing it of IP theft and unfair trade. He tied the ban to strained relations, echoing broader GOP criticisms.
Market Reaction: Nvidia (NVDA) shares dropped over 2% in premarket trading on September 17, with short interest potentially rising on China exposure fears. China accounts for 20% of Nvidia's revenue, though demand shifts to U.S. and allies mitigate some pain.
Industry Views: On X (formerly Twitter), reactions range from schadenfreude ("China flipped the script on Trump's H20 deal") to analysis of supply chain disruptions. Some speculate unofficial imports will continue via gray markets, as seen with past bans.
Broader Implications
This ban underscores China's AI strategy: prioritize domestic tech to reduce U.S. leverage, even if it means short-term disruptions for firms reliant on Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem (a potential substitute from DeepSeek was rumored today). For the U.S., it highlights the limits of export controls— they've spurred innovation abroad while keeping Chinese developers "addicted" to toned-down American tech. Globally, it could fragment AI hardware markets, boost Huawei/SMIC, and pressure Nvidia to innovate faster. Watch for U.S. retaliation or trade talks, especially with Trump's Xi call slated for September 19. Despite the drama, Nvidia's dominance persists, but China's catch-up is real: expect more "bans" as Beijing builds its stack.