新未名空间

meiyoumajia 写了： 2023年 1月 17日 13:50 普亭决定在3年内把军队总人数提升到150万。现在大概有（开战时100万-10几万义务兵1年到期-10伤亡-几万合同兵到期+30万新征兵）=100万。
也就是3年内要净增加50万。

乌克兰+北约与俄罗斯都在提升乌克兰战场的军事装备和人力。战争会更加火热或者更加持久。

同时，在很大程度上为了对付快速崛起的中国，全球化还在经历着已经多年的被大反转。世界的全球化必然会更严重地弱化，但不会基本消除，否则生产到销售的效率会变得差得让各种主要市场无法承受。

可能会出现些抱团和半包团的国家。多少回到好几十年前旧世界的样子。如何发展，要看西方与俄罗斯最后的结果会是怎样。现在看来，在乌克兰会是：the winner will take all。nothing or all会让人半疯狂而无法自制。对乌克兰意味着是否还能半独立地生存（在北约影子下或在俄罗斯影子下），而对俄罗斯意味着是否能够完整存在（如果它不能稳住新四省，那它的信念系统会被严重挑战）。

俄罗斯被严重削弱，中国就会面临着巨大的压力，世界第一的压力。

从经济上看，未来几年贸易较发达的国家的大多数人多少会更感受到生活和工作被影响。世界运行的效率会变低。西方发达国家的大多数基本工业品的成本会升高。通货膨胀很难被压下来了。

在这种情况下，多国不如从前那么有吸引力的高外债不知如何收尾。

中国多少是俄乌战争的受益者。俄罗斯把很大一部分注意力分走了。即使那样，中国承受的压力仍然很大。中国最大的痛点是台湾。美国和它的准卫星国，西方主要国家，可能会时不时在那边找中国的麻烦，尤其中国的产品越来越从中端向高端发展（因此有个更多的利益竞争/冲突）后。它们会进一步策动韩国，尤其日本，与中国作对。在去全球化的最后，就会越来越有“either you are with me， or you are against me”的幼儿园式的国际高压手段，让一些不愿意占边的国家在某些方面被强迫占边。

中国还是要继续发展经济。在应付西方上，见机行事。做好最坏的打算。对外继续与东南亚合作。对内得稳住自己的经济，中部和西部的发展潜力仍然很大。



回到俄国扩军的具体内容。俄国从北约东扩到现在处处是在应对。现在看来是在做急速的力对准备了。军事建制在从旅向军和军团方面继续发展。这可能是准备大规模战争的一个前奏，因为那更需要更高的协调性。

俄国防部发布的综合性简报：

Russian Defence Minister chairs session on building up Russian Armed Forces

Within the working visit to the Joint Group of Forces of the special military operation, the Minister of Defence of Russia has hosted a session with the deputy defence ministers, branch commanders-in-chief, and commanders on the implementation of the Russian President's decision to build up the Armed Forces to 1.5 million troops.

General of the Army Sergei Shoigu noted that all the measures were to be combined into the Comprehensive Build-Up Plan of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In addition, they are to be harmonised with building the infrastructure for deploying troops (forces), the terms of supplying armament, military and special hardware, and materiel within the state defence order.

The Russian defence chief added: 'The President of the Russian Federation decided to build up the Armed Forces to 1.5 million troops. The provision of military security of the country, the protection of the new regions and crucial facilities of the Russian Federation can be guaranteed only by reinforcing the elements of the Armed Forces as follows:

to found two new inter-branch strategic territorial formations of the Armed Forces: Moscow and Leningrad military districts, as well as self-contained groups of forces in the new regions of the Russian Federation;

to establish an army corps in the Republic of Karelia, three motorised rifle divisions as part of the Land Forces, and two airborne assault divisions as part of the Airborne Troops;

to reorganise seven motorised rifle brigades in the Western, Central, Eastern military districts, and in the Northern Fleet into motorised rifle divisions;

to reinforce the combat element of the Navy, Aerospace Forces, and Strategic Missile Forces.

Large-scale changes of the Armed Forces’ structure, increase in their strength, amendment of military administrative structure of the Russian Federation to be introduced in 2023¬2026 will require all the deputy defence ministers, branch commanders-in-chief, commanders of military districts, the Northern Fleet, and arms to take relevant appropriate decisions.

The main emphasis is to be placed on manning troops (forces) with contracted personnel. It is also necessary to organise timely provision of units and formations with armament, military and special hardware, as well as other materiel, raise the number of training grounds in the military districts and new regions of the Russian Federation, prepare them for manoeuvres, define the training scope of cadets and students in the higher-educational institutions of the Ministry of Defence, and upscale the training scope of specialists in the training centres of the Armed Forces in accordance with heightened need of troops (forces) by increasing capacity of training centres and establishing the new ones. The whole set of measures is to be provided with relevant budget allocation’.

补充两点。

俄罗斯经历了多年的各种制裁，经济系统已经变得很能承受西方的经济压力。因此去年gdp只下降了3.5%。开战不久的预期好像是11%。而且俄国是能源出口第一大国，因此它有很大的底气。

印度也是大收益者。中印进口石油会从俄罗斯那里得到高达近1/4折价优惠。印度刚刚破了进口记录，达到了中国从俄罗斯进口记录的1/4。

后部分很有内容

Wagner PMC allow the captured enemy to take away the bodies of fallen comrades
"Thanks to the Wagner PMC for the respectful attitude towards the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

The commander of a platoon of the 28th brigade, mobilized on October 4 last year, who was taken prisoner in Soledar, takes away the bodies of his brothers in coffins.
Under Soledar, an exchange of the dead took place in this city.

30 servicemen of the Luhansk People's Republic released in exchange of prisoners with Ukraine

coming their way
literally

a fair trade should always be encouraged

and after

“must be ourz。。。yeah”

"my day...





nothing serious"

M142
that certainly tells what it is

slava ukraini

转发过。但现在才明白与儿时的训练有素的关系

The surviving personnel of one of the battalions of the 116th "Volkssturm" brigade operating on the Artemovsk-Soledar front line complain to Zaluzhny and Zelensky that their commander gives criminal orders, and that they have neither the necessary training nor the necessary logistics to carry out combat missions. All under the slogan "We are not cannon fodder."