这种言论，还没等两年早就爆仓了
做空美股的朋友们
版主： 牛河梁
#42 Re: 做空美股的朋友们
这回是真的了吧
Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.
#49 Re: 做空美股的朋友们
The Shiller PE Ratio of 40.15, as shown in the post from September 22, 2025, exceeds the historical mean of 17.28 and nears the all-time high of 44.19 from December 1999, indicating a potential overvaluation of the S&P 500 based on a decade-adjusted earnings metric developed by economist Robert Shiller, whose 1996 Federal Reserve presentation with John Campbell first highlighted similar market exuberance.
Historical data from Shiller’s research, including the 1929 peak before the Great Depression and the 1999 dot-com bubble, suggests that a CAPE ratio above 40 has preceded significant market corrections, though a 2016 study by Jeremy Siegel argued that modern accounting changes and higher profit margins (e.g., current S&P 500 top 7 companies at 26%) might justify elevated ratios, challenging the ratio’s predictive reliability.
Recent global economic shifts, such as the AI-driven profit surge in tech (e.g., Nvidia’s 3% stock rise on September 23, 2025, per Inc.com), may explain the current high, but the lack of peer-reviewed long-term studies on AI’s impact on CAPE ratios leaves open the question of whether this reflects a historic melt-up or an unsustainable bubble.
4 web pages
Compare CAPE ratio to other valuation metrics
Impact of AI on stock market valuations
#52 Re: 做空美股的朋友们
大气候小气候啊
Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.
#53 Re: 做空美股的朋友们
真来了吧
x1
Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.