稍微谈谈俄国和乌克兰伤亡情况。定性讨论。
去年7月,乌军有70万。算上其它大概有100万。(那时候已经死伤了不少,至少10万。)
俄军在去年9月21日开始征兵。俄军进入乌克兰的人数大概15万,不到20万。加上几万其它的DPR和wagner等等,当时合起来不到25万。夏季有不少合同兵/职业军人到期回家了。因此俄军人数马上少了。除了头1个月,俄过去主要是防守,尽量减少近距离的硬拼,以避免过多的人员损失。
因此乌军反攻时,Kharkiv的俄军严重缺员。当时各方报道都说双方军事人员对比至少是几比1。这与上的数据相当吻合。
乌军一直在征兵。几个月前就有报道说征了10几次了。而最近力度特别大。最近10天我看了好几个强征的视频。
从这些情况看,乌军明显比俄军伤亡更严重。尤其在去年9月之前。否则俄国不会那么晚才开始征兵。
最近1个多月俄国进攻增加,伤亡会提高了不少。但俄军的多方 面火力优势仍然明显。
大多数死亡都不是直接的人员接触,而是各种轰炸造成,尤其artillery duel。这是被公认的。
长时间里饿对乌的炮火优势至少是几比1。因此乌克兰人和装备损失更严重得多。
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-millio ... ov-1723351
Ukraine Has Million-Strong Force to Fight With Western Weapons: Minister
BY ISABEL VAN BRUGEN ON 7/11/22 AT 6:10 AM EDT
Ukraine has a "million strong" force to fight Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops with Western weapons, the country's defense minister has said.
Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine's defense minister, in an interview with British newspaper The Times emphasized that as Volodymyr Zelensky's troops push to recapture its southern territories from Russia, the country is seeking to arm all soldiers with weapons provided by Western allies.
"We're people of the free world and with a real sense of justice and liberty," Reznikov said in the interview published Sunday. "We have approximately 700,000 in the armed forces and when you add the national guard, police, border guard, we are around a million strong."