geniushanbiao 写了： 2025年 6月 18日 15:21 DP在去年9月升级了，德国的路面已经可以59mph了。特粉们是不是很担心啊？照DP这发展速度，全面超越FSD也就是未来几年的事。
起码到现在为止Drive Pilot还没有什么事故伤亡记录，你家FSD已经出了至少1500多起事故死了好几十人了。
FSD 13.2.9 还是不行啊，经不起考验
版主： lexian
#82 Re: FSD 13.2.9 还是不行啊，经不起考验
DP根本没什么人用，而且限制条件那么多，当然不会出事故了。lol。
#83 Re: FSD 13.2.9 还是不行啊，经不起考验
如果fsd是个婴儿，那dp就是个早产儿，全靠各种仪器才能存活下来。根本没法比。
geniushanbiao 写了： 2025年 6月 18日 15:25 着啥急了，当年有触摸屏的时候NOKIA也是几亿人用，后来不还是被苹果安卓的智能机打垮么。现在的自动驾驶行业完全处于婴儿阶段，以后谁会胜出还很难说。你几个孩子刚生出来就能看出他们以后能混成啥样？FSD最多就是个比别的婴儿个子大一些的婴儿而已。
#84 Re: FSD 13.2.9 还是不行啊，经不起考验
只是目前没什么人用而已，again我说的很清楚了，DP还是在发展中。目前在德国已经有超过13,000km的路可以用了，美国还很少而已。
你家FSD就完美了么？不是也在发展中么？只是两者发展思路不同而已。这玩意就跟剑宗气宗一样，FSD的发展思路前期进展快，后期就难说了，能不能做出L3，L4来还是未知数。DP的发展思路前期用户少，后期因为已经是L3了所以这个不需要担心。
#86 Re: FSD 13.2.9 还是不行啊，经不起考验
没人用当然就不会有事故了。
geniushanbiao 写了： 2025年 6月 18日 16:25 只是目前没什么人用而已，again我说的很清楚了，DP还是在发展中。目前在德国已经有超过13,000km的路可以用了，美国还很少而已。
你家FSD就完美了么？不是也在发展中么？只是两者发展思路不同而已。这玩意就跟剑宗气宗一样，FSD的发展思路前期进展快，后期就难说了，能不能做出L3，L4来还是未知数。DP的发展思路前期用户少，后期因为已经是L3了所以这个不需要担心。
#87 Re: FSD 13.2.9 还是不行啊，经不起考验
Tesla hw5 要来了 不知道到时候hw4还是不是fully capable
Tesla’s next-generation self-driving computer, previously referred to as Hardware 5 (HW5), has been officially renamed AI5 by CEO Elon Musk. Here’s a concise update based on available information:
Release Timeline: AI5 is expected to be available in vehicles in the second half of 2025, with some sources suggesting a potential slip into January 2026. It’s slated to debut in new Tesla models, potentially including the Model Y and the Cybercab robotax
Tesla’s next-generation self-driving computer, previously referred to as Hardware 5 (HW5), has been officially renamed AI5 by CEO Elon Musk. Here’s a concise update based on available information:
Release Timeline: AI5 is expected to be available in vehicles in the second half of 2025, with some sources suggesting a potential slip into January 2026. It’s slated to debut in new Tesla models, potentially including the Model Y and the Cybercab robotax
#89 Re: FSD 13.2.9 还是不行啊，经不起考验
Xai 的观点
Whether Tesla's Hardware 4 (HW4, now called AI4) will support unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) remains uncertain based on available information, with no definitive confirmation from Tesla. Here’s a concise breakdown:
Current Capability: HW4, introduced in early 2023, is significantly more powerful than HW3 (~500 TOPS vs. ~144 TOPS). It’s designed to handle advanced FSD tasks, with improved redundancy, higher-resolution cameras, and better processing for complex driving scenarios. Recent FSD versions (e.g., v13) run on HW4, but there’s no public evidence it supports unsupervised FSD yet, as Tesla’s FSD is still at Level 2+ autonomy, requiring human supervision.
Tesla’s Stance: Elon Musk has claimed HW4 is capable of supporting unsupervised FSD, stating in 2023 that HW4’s compute power is sufficient for “end-to-end” autonomy. However, Musk’s statements are often optimistic, and Tesla has not provided concrete data confirming HW4’s readiness for unsupervised operation (Level 4 or 5 autonomy). Tesla’s promise to upgrade HW3 vehicles to a new computer for free if HW3 can’t support unsupervised FSD suggests confidence in HW4, but no explicit guarantee has been made for HW4 itself.
Challenges and Evidence:
HW4 is already being pushed to its limits with recent FSD updates, as noted in X posts, raising concerns about its capacity for unsupervised FSD without further optimization.
Unsupervised FSD requires not just compute power but also robust sensor suites, software reliability, and regulatory approval. HW4’s hardware (12 cameras, radar, redundant systems) is advanced, but software and regulatory hurdles remain significant.
Some X posts speculate HW4 may fall short for unsupervised FSD, with AI5 (HW5) being Tesla’s true bet for robotaxi-level autonomy due to its ~10x compute increase (2,000-2,500 TOPS). These claims are unverified.
Upgrade Implications: If HW4 cannot support unsupervised FSD, Tesla has not clarified whether HW4 vehicles would be eligible for free upgrades to AI5, as the HW3 upgrade promise explicitly covers only HW3 owners with the FSD package. HW4’s different wiring, cooling, and sensor systems make retrofitting to AI5 unlikely without significant cost or a new vehicle purchase.
Conclusion: HW4 has the potential to support unsupervised FSD based on its hardware specs and Musk’s claims, but there’s no confirmation it can achieve this today. Software improvements, testing, and regulatory approval are critical unknowns. With AI5 slated for late 2025 or early 2026, Tesla may prioritize it for unsupervised FSD, especially for the Cybercab robotaxi, potentially leaving HW4 as a transitional platform.
Recommendation: Wait for official Tesla statements or real-world demonstrations of unsupervised FSD on HW4 before making assumptions. If you’re considering a Tesla purchase for unsupervised FSD, you might wait until AI5-equipped vehicles are available or clarity emerges on HW4’s capabilities.
If you want me to dig deeper into specific X posts or Tesla’s announcements, let me know!
Whether Tesla's Hardware 4 (HW4, now called AI4) will support unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) remains uncertain based on available information, with no definitive confirmation from Tesla. Here’s a concise breakdown:
Current Capability: HW4, introduced in early 2023, is significantly more powerful than HW3 (~500 TOPS vs. ~144 TOPS). It’s designed to handle advanced FSD tasks, with improved redundancy, higher-resolution cameras, and better processing for complex driving scenarios. Recent FSD versions (e.g., v13) run on HW4, but there’s no public evidence it supports unsupervised FSD yet, as Tesla’s FSD is still at Level 2+ autonomy, requiring human supervision.
Tesla’s Stance: Elon Musk has claimed HW4 is capable of supporting unsupervised FSD, stating in 2023 that HW4’s compute power is sufficient for “end-to-end” autonomy. However, Musk’s statements are often optimistic, and Tesla has not provided concrete data confirming HW4’s readiness for unsupervised operation (Level 4 or 5 autonomy). Tesla’s promise to upgrade HW3 vehicles to a new computer for free if HW3 can’t support unsupervised FSD suggests confidence in HW4, but no explicit guarantee has been made for HW4 itself.
Challenges and Evidence:
HW4 is already being pushed to its limits with recent FSD updates, as noted in X posts, raising concerns about its capacity for unsupervised FSD without further optimization.
Unsupervised FSD requires not just compute power but also robust sensor suites, software reliability, and regulatory approval. HW4’s hardware (12 cameras, radar, redundant systems) is advanced, but software and regulatory hurdles remain significant.
Some X posts speculate HW4 may fall short for unsupervised FSD, with AI5 (HW5) being Tesla’s true bet for robotaxi-level autonomy due to its ~10x compute increase (2,000-2,500 TOPS). These claims are unverified.
Upgrade Implications: If HW4 cannot support unsupervised FSD, Tesla has not clarified whether HW4 vehicles would be eligible for free upgrades to AI5, as the HW3 upgrade promise explicitly covers only HW3 owners with the FSD package. HW4’s different wiring, cooling, and sensor systems make retrofitting to AI5 unlikely without significant cost or a new vehicle purchase.
Conclusion: HW4 has the potential to support unsupervised FSD based on its hardware specs and Musk’s claims, but there’s no confirmation it can achieve this today. Software improvements, testing, and regulatory approval are critical unknowns. With AI5 slated for late 2025 or early 2026, Tesla may prioritize it for unsupervised FSD, especially for the Cybercab robotaxi, potentially leaving HW4 as a transitional platform.
Recommendation: Wait for official Tesla statements or real-world demonstrations of unsupervised FSD on HW4 before making assumptions. If you’re considering a Tesla purchase for unsupervised FSD, you might wait until AI5-equipped vehicles are available or clarity emerges on HW4’s capabilities.
If you want me to dig deeper into specific X posts or Tesla’s announcements, let me know!