新未名空间

k

是的，除非后面几周有强势下跌，底基本上差不多了。可能会回测360或者370左右，如果到了那里，应该是个不错的再次入场的好机会。

w

巴韭特 写了： 2022年 8月 18日 10:23 真到360那就另一个轮回了

The rally during past a few weeks should have made many bears hesitate, the best bears can expect in next months would be a trading range. If they want the bear trend to continue, they need to sell aggressively in next a few weeks, otherwise bulls will be more convinced that they have seen the bottom and will be more willing to buy around 360 area if it gets there.

That said, if the bull trend is to continue, less likely market will get to 360 area because many bulls will buy before it gets there, if it indeed gets there, bears will try to breakout down from 360 area but that breakout will likely fail and more bulls will buy again, and buy more when it gets lower.

So overall I think bears have lost their cool and they will be busy covering their loss when the market tries to test the bottom again.

也可能变成M吧，信心不是很强

如果到底了，这真让人失望，我还没有建仓任何一只股票。如果真是这样，只能右侧建仓了。

短期回调
没有逃出
三年熊市
的范畴

BCQ1 写了： 2022年 8月 18日 16:42 短期回调
没有逃出
三年熊市
的范畴

短期回调就好，这回水下泡太久。
不过，熊市是三年吗？半年到一年不大可能去熊走牛？

h

hg

从3600到3950足足有300点呢，中间都没有支撑吗？我看好跌破3950，到3840附近反弹。

d

看图是看不出概率的。

巴韭特 写了： 2022年 8月 18日 07:21

50周均线压着
做（短期）顶的概率越来越大

左侧右侧，小三用来骗自己玩的股市话术中的一种。

achw 写了： 2022年 8月 18日 16:34 如果到底了，这真让人失望，我还没有建仓任何一只股票。如果真是这样，只能右侧建仓了。

用英文跳大神......不改变跳大神这个事情的属性。

palaowu 写了： 2022年 8月 18日 12:28 The rally during past a few weeks should have made many bears hesitate, the best bears can expect in next months would be a trading range. If they want the bear trend to continue, they need to sell aggressively in next a few weeks, otherwise bulls will be more convinced that they have seen the bottom and will be more willing to buy around 360 area if it gets there.

That said, if the bull trend is to continue, less likely market will get to 360 area because many bulls will buy before it gets there, if it indeed gets there, bears will try to breakout down from 360 area but that breakout will likely fail and more bulls will buy again, and buy more when it gets lower.

So overall I think bears have lost their cool and they will be busy covering their loss when the market tries to test the bottom again.

可以把有效跌破3900定义为必须继续下跌到3600

那么有效跌破3900后， 去3600的概率是100%.

巴韭特 写了： 2022年 8月 30日 11:35 3950或者3900吧
3900更重要些
如果有效跌破3900那就真要去3600了（年底前99%会到）