三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

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三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 awaydream楼主 »

克里夫兰分行的cast 是 5.22%, yahoo 的一帮人与预期是5.2%,
整体看来, 就我个人体验来看,应该高不到哪里去了。

不过,这里面一个很核心的问题, 就是 core CPI, 要开始反超CPI了。
而Core CPI最大成分就是房价和房租, 目前, fed还是舍不得动手卖mbs, 还在各种救市。
房价和房租继续涨的话, 那通胀下来个屁啊?


从半年前, fed的大鲍鱼主席就在wishful thinking, 后面慢慢的新签订合同的租约价格会慢慢下降, 特别是下半年,
新租约会下降一大截, 于是核心cpi问题就解决了, 进而总体通胀也解决了。
但是, 他同时不希望房价崩,甚至不希望房价回调,至少没有主动push。

房价不跌,就盼着房东主动降房租, 他以为房东都是慈善家吗?

哥们智商有点不够用, 完全理解不了fed大鲍鱼的逻辑啊, 只能等等看, 难道他真能这么牛逼?





https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators ... nowcasting



INFLATION, YEAR-OVER-YEAR PERCENT CHANGE
Month CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
April 2023 5.37 5.64 4.54 4.67 04/11
March 2023 5.22 5.66 4.29 4.60 04/11



March 2023 Apr. 12, 2023 08:30 AM








Inflation data expected to show continued signs of cooling in March
432
Alexandra Canal
Alexandra Canal·Senior Reporter
Mon, April 10, 2023 at 1:29 PM EDT·2 min read
A closely-watched government measure of inflation is expected to show that price increases cooled further last month.

March's Consumer Price Index (CPI), slated for release Wednesday, is expected to come in at 5.2%, a slowdown from February's 6% annual gain, according to estimates from Bloomberg.

Stay ahead of the market
The number would mark the slowest annual increase in consumer prices since May 2021 but would still be significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Fed has been raising interest rates to try to bring down inflation, but the central bank risks sending the economy into a recession by hiking rates too high too fast.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.2% in March, down from a 0.4% increase in February.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in March are expected to have risen 0.4% over the prior month and 5.6% over last year, according to Bloomberg data.

"Core inflation, and core services, should remain sticky-high," Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Monday, adding that "much of this stickiness stems from elevated rent and owners' equivalent rent inflation, which should subside in the second half of the year." Owners' equivalent rent is the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay.

Here's what to expect compared to the prior month's reading:

CPI YoY: +5.2% expected vs. +6% in February

CPI MoM: +0.2% expected vs. +0.4% in February

CPI "core" YoY: +5.6% expected vs. +5.5% in February

CPI "core" MoM: +0.4% expected vs. +0.5% in February

The Fed is closely watching inflation data ahead of its May meeting
The Fed is closely watching inflation data ahead of its May meeting
Wednesday's data, a critical element in determining the Fed's monetary policy, will follow the latest jobs report, which showed a slowdown in hiring last month.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, the U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Still, the slowdown likely won't be enough for the Fed to pause its aggressive rate hiking campaign.

As of Monday afternoon, markets were pricing in a 70% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates by another 0.25% in May, according to data from the CME Group.

Forecasts from the central bank released last month suggested one additional 0.25% rate increase was likely this year.

"Our base case is also for a 25 [basis point] hike in June, although there is a good deal of data to be seen before then, beginning with...CPI and retail sales releases," John Canavan, lead U.S. analyst at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note last week. Retail sales data is scheduled for release Friday.
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 awaydream楼主 »

就fed现在的保房市的做法, 只会让通胀持续的时间会更久, 不要讲2025年见到2% cpi的故事了, 老老实实讲2052年才能 cpi到2%吧。

目前的做法不变的话, 今年的cpi会维持在高位, 指望因为cpi消退, fed就会降息,基本痴人说梦了,因为后面很长时间cpi很难退了。
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 srx »

接着印钱通胀就没法下来,前一阵几个银行闹的勉强收回来点水又放出去了。再看这些年的趋势,完全挡不住了。
稍微收回来点水,就崩给你看。
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 fanqie »

美国的消费还是很强劲。现在离消费转折的痛点还有些距离。通胀一时半会也下不来。


中国已经发生通缩,消费者在去杠杆。提前还房贷之类。
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 Stopper »

没事,继续印钞票,提工资。。。
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 trieste »

Fang123 写了: 4月 11, 2023, 7:52 pm 美国是借钱消费

millennials是young people,是指的出生在2000年前后的这一代。
中年人老年人有钱。美国我们这代人手里的财富都增加了。
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 萧武达 »

美金涨了,加息预期还在
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 awaydream楼主 »

一切如我所料, 最主要的问题就是房价和房租的问题了。

fed一边猛炒房子, 一边嘴上嚷嚷要打通胀, 牛逼,看他怎么办



CPI 5.0%
核心CPI 5.6%



房租是非常难打的, 房价就算小跌一些,房租都会继续涨的,大跌的话,fed又不愿意,
所以,房租还会继续涨很长时间, 通胀要在高位3%之上持续挺久的。
疫情期间美国房价被fed推着涨了50%以上, 房租还没有跟上房价的涨幅,
他的增长还没有释放完毕。


就算fed不降低利息, 只要经济不崩,房租也要再涨好几年的, 通胀有的看了。
如果经济崩的话, fed又要入场天量撒钱, 另一轮大通胀跟着就来。











https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm



Consumer Price Index Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until
8:30 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, April 12, 2023 USDL-23-0674

Technical information: (202) 691-7000 * cpi_info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cpi
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - MARCH 2023

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally
adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase. This more
than offset a decline in the energy index, which decreased 3.5 percent over the month as all major
energy component indexes declined. The food index was unchanged in March with the food at home index
falling 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March, after rising 0.5 percent in
February. Indexes which increased in March include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares,
household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles. The index for medical care and the index for
used cars and trucks were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index increased 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending March; this was the smallest 12-month
increase since the period ending May 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.6 percent
over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 6.4 percent for the 12 months ending March, and the
food index increased 8.5 percent over the last year.





Food

The food index was unchanged in March. The food at home index fell 0.3 percent over the month, the first
decline in that index since September 2020. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes
decreased over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 1.4 percent in March as
the index for eggs fell 10.9 percent. The fruits and vegetables index declined 1.3 percent over the
month, and the dairy and related products index decreased 0.1 percent.

In contrast, the index for other food at home rose 0.4 percent in March, following a 0.3-percent
increase the previous month. The cereals and bakery products index increased 0.6 percent over the month,
and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 0.2 percent.

The food away from home index rose 0.6 percent in March, as it did in the previous 2 months. The index
for full service meals increased 0.7 percent over the month and the index for limited service meals
increased 0.5 percent.

The food at home index rose 8.4 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery
products rose 13.6 percent over the 12 months ending in March. The remaining major grocery store food
groups posted increases ranging from 2.5 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 11.3 percent (nonalcoholic
beverages).

The index for food away from home rose 8.8 percent over the last year. The index for full service meals
rose 8.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 7.9 percent over
the same period.

Energy

The energy index fell 3.5 percent in March after decreasing 0.6 percent in February. The gasoline index
decreased 4.6 percent in March, following a 1.0-percent increase in the previous month. (Before seasonal
adjustment, gasoline prices rose 1.0 percent in March.) The natural gas index decreased 7.1 percent over
the month, following an 8.0-percent decline in February. The index for electricity decreased 0.7 percent
in March, the largest decline in that index since January 2021.

The energy index fell 6.4 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index decreased 17.4 percent
over the last 12 months, while the fuel oil index fell 14.2 percent over the span. In contrast, the
index for electricity rose 10.2 percent over the last year, and the index for natural gas increased 5.5
percent over the same period.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March after rising 0.5 percent in
February. The shelter index increased 0.6 percent over the month after rising 0.8 percent in February.
The index for rent and the index for owners' equivalent rent both rose 0.5 percent in March following
larger increases in the previous month. The index for lodging away from home increased 2.7 percent in
March.

The shelter index was the dominant factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food
and energy. Among the other indexes that rose in March was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which
increased 1.2 percent, and the index for airline fares which increased 4.0 percent. The indexes for
household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, education, and apparel also increased in March. In
contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 0.9 percent in March, continuing a recent downward
trend.

The medical care index fell 0.3 percent in March, after falling 0.5 percent in February. The index for
hospital services fell 0.4 percent over the month, after being unchanged in February. The index for
physicians' services continued to decline, falling 0.2 percent after declining 0.5 percent in February.
The prescription drugs index increased 0.1 percent in March.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.6 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index
increased 8.2 percent over the last year, accounting for over 60 percent of the total increase in all
items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor
vehicle insurance (+15.0 percent), household furnishings and operations (+5.6 percent), recreation (+4.8
percent), and new vehicles (+6.1 percent).

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 5.0 percent over the last 12 months
to an index level of 301.836 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to
seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 4.5 percent over
the last 12 months to an index level of 296.021 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3
percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 5.1 percent over the last
12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please
note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
_______________
The Consumer Price Index for April 2023 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, May 10, 2023, at 8:30a.m. (ET).

Technical Note

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban
wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents over 90 percent of the
total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or
metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired
people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending
patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces,
and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban
consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on the
expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements: more than
one-half of the household's income must come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of
the household's earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months.
The CPI-W population represents approximately 30 percent of the total U.S. population and is a subset
of the CPI-U population.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors' and dentists'
services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are
collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and
approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling
stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated with
the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are
obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected
every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most
goods and services are obtained by personal visit, telephone call, or web collection by the Bureau's
trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using
weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are
also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and
population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in
the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since
the base period. For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are
considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to three
subsequent quarterly revisions.

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and the CPI-W,
the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals
100. An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively,
that relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and
services rising from $100 to $107.

Sampling Error in the CPI

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample
of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates
of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U.
These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing.
For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S.
all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using
the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these
estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices.
For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident
that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent.
For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see
www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than
changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in
relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following table shows an example of
using index values to calculate percent changes:


Item A Item B Item C
Year I 112.500 225.000 110.000
Year II 121.500 243.000 128.000
Change in index points 9.000 18.000 18.000
Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4

Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) program produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal
adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the
previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available at
www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustm ... -2023.xlsx.

For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/que ... nswers.htm
and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/tim ... hanges.htm.

How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred
since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same
magnitude every year-such as price movements resulting from weather events, production cycles, model
changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for
the time of year.

The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay.
Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract
agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before
adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in
escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.

Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment (IASA) for some CPI
series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of
price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused
by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal
factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are
then applied to the unadjusted data.

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009
return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier data
during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of the time
series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment.
Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this "prior adjusted" data. These seasonal
factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor
fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2023, BLS adjusted 57 series using intervention
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels and vehicles.

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to
revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate
new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data.
Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject
to revision. For January 2023, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2018 to
2022 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted using the Census
X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2022 will be applied to data
for 2023 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2023 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally
adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and
are therefore not available in advance.

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria.
Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from "not
seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S.
city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not
seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent
series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be
changed. For 2023, 37 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally
adjusted.

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and
Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 awaydream楼主 »

总之,高通胀长期化,成为概率越来越大的事情。
我在2020年底,原油被打到30刀时, 就预测到一大部分的今天的事情了,只是没有预测到,
fed买mbs和炒房会干得那么疯狂,感觉傻逼也不会那么疯狂啊,完全不可理解啊。
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 awaydream楼主 »

过两天,我来简单讲一下, 到目前为止,wilson 和 Michael Burry 是怎么理解的, 又是怎么错的。
目前的市场走势,已经完全和他们的预测对不上了。


这会有点忙, 我后面再来讲。
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 awaydream楼主 »

油和天然气当然要涨, 只要大盘不崩( 目前看是大概率的事情), 油气都要涨, 他们的价格需要回归合理回报区间的,
目前的价格不可持续,特别是天然气价格, 被空头搞得太扯淡了。


我是长期看涨,不是说你今天买,明天就涨,就赚大钱, 没有那会事。
虽然长期看涨,但是中间出现很多大回调都是有可能的,各人的情况也不一样,
自己要根据自己的状况制定相应的计划。

天然气波动大,操纵厉害,尽量控制仓位在较低水平, 新手最好低于20%,不要买etf,就买天然气三傻,
做好长期抗战的准备,多看少操作, good luck。


如果大盘真的不跌了,其他也有很多不错的股。


不过,我觉得这次的事情还没有过去,最棘手的房地产问题, fed还没有真正去面对,大盘后面搞不好还有动荡。
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Stopper
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 Stopper »

awaydream 写了: 4月 12, 2023, 9:16 am 油和天然气当然要涨, 只要大盘不崩( 目前看是大概率的事情), 油气都要涨, 他们的价格需要回归合理回报区间的,
目前的价格不可持续,特别是天然气价格, 被空头搞得太扯淡了。


我是长期看涨,不是说你今天买,明天就涨,就赚大钱, 没有那会事。
虽然长期看涨,但是中间出现很多大回调都是有可能的,各人的情况也不一样,
自己要根据自己的状况制定相应的计划。

天然气波动大,操纵厉害,尽量控制仓位在较低水平, 新手最好低于20%,不要买etf,就买天然气三傻,
做好长期抗战的准备,多看少操作, good luck。


如果大盘真的不跌了,其他也有很多不错的股。


不过,我觉得这次的事情还没有过去,最棘手的房地产问题, fed还没有真正去面对,大盘后面搞不好还有动荡。
所以是一切未定,你钱你定,股市如赌场!
test2020
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 test2020 »

awaydream 写了: 4月 12, 2023, 8:54 am 总之,高通胀长期化,成为概率越来越大的事情。
我在2020年底,原油被打到30刀时, 就预测到一大部分的今天的事情了,只是没有预测到,
fed买mbs和炒房会干得那么疯狂,感觉傻逼也不会那么疯狂啊,完全不可理解啊。
大师,没脸畜买MBS和炒房目的是什么啊?
1.炒高房价学中国让房子当蓄水池?
2.给有房产的超级富人发财的机会?
3.多收房地产税增加税收?
Savage
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 Savage »

test2020 写了: 4月 14, 2023, 8:25 am 大师,没脸畜买MBS和炒房目的是什么啊?
1.炒高房价学中国让房子当蓄水池?
2.给有房产的超级富人发财的机会?
3.多收房地产税增加税收?
没感觉FED有目的。就是疫情期间拉动GDP.结果一发不可收拾。想退出MBS,但是骑虎难下,因为他不想看到房价暴跌。
kuku
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Re: 三月的CPI数据明天就要出来了

帖子 kuku »

awaydream 写了: 4月 11, 2023, 11:34 am 就fed现在的保房市的做法, 只会让通胀持续的时间会更久, 不要讲2025年见到2% cpi的故事了, 老老实实讲2052年才能 cpi到2%吧。

目前的做法不变的话, 今年的cpi会维持在高位, 指望因为cpi消退, fed就会降息,基本痴人说梦了,因为后面很长时间cpi很难退了。
原计划是持续升息到今年年底,如此可望2025年初通胀降到2%左右
结果涨了一半,银行要倒,不敢涨利息了
这事也就拉倒了
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