俄对美英德法波乌等战争之乌克兰大反攻之前之前之前,和然后,和中国,和宇宙

对应原来的军事天地,显然不完全是讨论军事。

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Re: 俄对美英德法波乌等战争之乌克兰大反攻之前之前之前,和然后,和中国,和宇宙

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one more time

more details
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kupyansk

2 days ago, the ammonia pipeline (to europe) was broken
(by russians of course, just as the undersea gas pipeline had been)

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https://www.ft.com/content/a6900b0f-08d ... 7b6041e381

EU considers mandatory ban on using Huawei to build 5G
Brussels concerned lack of action by member states to bar high-risk companies threatens security of entire bloc

The EU is considering a mandatory ban on member states using companies deemed to present a security risk in their 5G networks, including Chinese telecoms group Huawei, according to officials with knowledge of the discussions.

The move comes as concern rises in Brussels that some national governments are dragging their feet on the issue, the officials told the Financial Times.

Only a third of EU countries had banned Huawei from critical parts of the bloc’s 5G communications despite recommendations set out by Brussels to exclude high-risk vendors from technology investments, Thierry Breton, EU internal market commissioner, told the bloc’s telecoms ministers at a meeting last
Friday. “This is too few. And it exposes the union’s collective security,” he said.

The recommendations, which were unanimously agreed by member states in 2020, ranged from certification requirements to diversification of suppliers.

The guidance fell short of a ban, but people with direct knowledge of the matter said the EU could introduce a mandatory bar on companies deemed to present a security risk, such as Huawei, if member states, including Germany, continued to delay.

The European Commission declined to comment. The bloc’s executive arm is next week scheduled to report on progress across the bloc in implementing the recommendations.

New rules forcing a ban are unlikely to come before the five-year term of the current European Commission ends in 2024, given the time needed to gain the backing of the European parliament and member states for any new law.

Huawei said it opposed politicising cyber security evaluation. “Assessing cyber security risks without sticking to technological standards, or excluding specific suppliers from the system without proper technological evaluation, is a violation of the principles of fairness and non-discrimination, and also against the laws and regulations of the European Union and its member states.”

The company said: “No court has ever found that Huawei had engaged in malicious intellectual property theft, or required Huawei to pay damages for infringement on others’ intellectual property.”

Washington has accused Huawei in particular of being a criminal enterprise that had stolen from US companies, violated sanctions against North Korea and made false statements to the FBI. It has urged US allies to ban the company from their critical communications infrastructure.

Officials in Germany have expressed concern about the ties between Deutsche Telekom and Huawei. Earlier this year Berlin said it was reviewing the use of Chinese components in its 5G infrastructure and whether a change of law was needed.

The officials with knowledge of the discussions in Brussels warned of the “costs of long-term dependencies” on China, just as the bloc had relied on Russian energy supplies before the Ukraine war, if the entire EU failed to ban Huawei. “We know what it is like to be dependent on others,” said one.

The latest warnings come at a time of growing concern in the EU about its technological dependence on China, the country’s trade practices and Beijing’s human rights record.

At last week’s meeting with telecoms ministers, Breton warned of the risks of being too exposed to Chinese vendors. “My main message to the member states was to remind them of the urgent need to act to avoid creating major vulnerabilities that would be difficult to reverse,” he said.

The EU had already been able to “reduce or eliminate” its exposure to geopolitical risks in other industries such as energy, he said, warning: “We must do the same for 5G networks — we cannot afford to maintain critical dependencies that could become a weapon against our interests.”

The push comes as a number of European nations are reassessing their dependence on China for critical telecommunications infrastructure. Portugal is preparing to ban Huawei from some 5G equipment in a policy U-turn. The country is one of Europe’s biggest recipients per capita of Chinese investment.

Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the EU, plus the UK, have already banned the company from their 5G infrastructure.
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Re: 俄对美英德法波乌等战争之乌克兰大反攻之前之前之前,和然后,和中国,和宇宙

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Responses to the following question: generally speaking, thinking about China, which of the following best reflects your view on what it is to Europe?

column 1: friendliness_index == ratio of column 5 to column 7


column 2: An ally – that shares our interests and values
column 3: A necessary partner – with which we must strategically cooperate
column 5: the sum of the above two columns


column 6: don't know


column 9: A rival – with which we need to compete
column 10: An adversary with which we are in conflict
column 7: the sum of the above two columns


6.60 8 58 bulgaria 66 24 10 bulgaria 8 2

2.30 8 54 hungary 62 11 27 hungary 24 3

1.74 3 51 spain 54 15 31 spain 22 9
1.47 4 46 austria 50 16 34 austria 23 11
1.35 1 49 netherland 50 13 37 netherland 28 9





1.31 3 43 average 46 18 35 average 24 11



1.26 3 36 poland 39 30 31 poland 21 10
1.23 1 42 italy 43 22 35 italy 27 8

0.93 1 40 uk 41 15 44 uk 27 17
0.83 3 31 france 34 25 41 france 28 13
0.70 2 33 germany 35 15 50 germany 32 18
0.66 2 31 sweden 33 17 50 sweden 24 26






https://ecfr.eu/publication/keeping-ame ... not-russia

Methodology
This report is based on a public opinion poll of adult populations (aged 18 and over) conducted in April 2023 in 11 EU countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden). The total number of respondents was 16,168.

The polls were carried out for ECFR as an online survey through Datapraxis and YouGov in Austria (1,000 respondents; 6-12 April), Denmark (1,019; 6-11 April), France (3,087; 6-14 April), Germany (3,023; 6-13 April), Italy (1,000; 6-12 April), Poland (1,525; 6-18 April), Spain (1,502; 6-12 April), and Sweden (1,003; 6-12 April); and through Datapraxis and Alpha in Bulgaria (1,000; 6-19 April); Datapraxis and Szondaphone in Hungary (1,002; 6-20 April); and Datapraxis and Analitiqs in the Netherlands (1,007; 4-13 April). In all these countries the sample was nationally representative of basic demographics and past votes.

For certain questions – concerning the perception of other countries as allies, partners, rivals, or adversaries; the future relationship with Russia; and the position to be adopted in the event of a US-China conflict over Taiwan – national samples were split so equal numbers of respondents answered from the perspective of Europe and from their own country.

About the authors
Jana Puglierin is head of the Berlin office and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She is also director of ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe initiative, which aims to shed new light on the changing international order and how it affects Europe’s place in the world.

Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He is a lead ECFR analyst on European public opinion. He contributes to ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe initiative, which aims to shed new light on the changing international order and how it affects Europe’s place in the world.
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Responses to the following question: how do you perceive the nature of the relationship between the authorities of Russia and China?


column 1: ratio of column 4 to column 3

column 2: More or less equal partners in a close anti-Western alliance
column 3: Close but unequal partners, with China being a junior partner to Russia
column 4: Close but unequal partners, with Russia being a junior partner to China
column 6: the sum of the above three columns


column 7: Don’t know

column 9: Not partners at al


4.75 23 8 38 netherland 69 20 netherland 11

3.08 25 12 37 austria 74 15 austria 10
3.08 24 12 37 germany 73 16 germany 11
2.64 23 14 37 sweden 74 19 sweden 7
2.55 31 11 28 hungary 70 19 hungary 12



2.38 26 13 31 average 70 21 average 9



2.25 15 16 36 uk 67 24 uk 10
2.08 26 12 25 italy 63 26 italy 11
2.06 29 16 33 spain 78 16 spain 6
2.06 19 16 33 poland 68 24 poland 8
1.93 25 14 27 france 66 26 france 8
1.40 43 10 14 bulgaria 67 23 bulgaria 9
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Re: 俄对美英德法波乌等战争之乌克兰大反攻之前之前之前,和然后,和中国,和宇宙

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Responses to the following question: do you think the following are more of a risk or a benefit to Europe?

Mostly risks
More risks than benefits

As many risks as benefits
Don’t know

More benefits than risks
Mostly benefits

respectively:::::::::::::::
--------------------------->
China USA
5 6
16 9
(21 15 ratio = 1.4)



35 24
15 14
(50 38, they are big)



21 29
7 18
(28 47 ratio = 1/1.7)
<------------------------------


28/21 =1.3; 47/15=3.1
their ratio=1/2.4




the numbers are not too bad for china
usa is kept busy by lihaiguo (more about this later)
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Responses to the following question: imagine China decided to deliver ammunition and weapons to Russia to use in the war in Ukraine, and Western countries were considering whether or not to put economic sanctions on China in response. Do you think… a) it would be more important to protect Western economies, even if that meant not imposing economic sanctions on China; b) don't know; c) it would be more important to impose sanctions on China, even if that meant seriously harming Western economies?


Impose sanctions on China, even if it seriously harms Western economies
Don't know
Do not impose economic sanctions on China

add the first column: the ratio of "sanction" to "no sanction"
--------->
2.55 56 sweden 22 sweden 22
2.52 53 uk 26 uk 21
1.82 51 netherland 21 netherland 28
1.53 49 spain 19 spain 32
1.67 45 poland 28 poland 27
1.41 41 france 30 france 29


1.24 41 average 26 average 33


0.97 37 germany 25 germany 38
0.80 35 hungary 21 hungary 44
0.69 31 austria 24 austria 45
0.69 29 italy 29 italy 42
0.62 24 bulgaria 37 bulgaria 39
<---------------





one more time, ranked by the ratio:::::::
2.55 56 sweden 22 sweden 22
2.52 53 uk 26 uk 21
1.82 51 netherland 21 netherland 28
1.67 45 poland 28 poland 27
1.53 49 spain 19 spain 32
1.41 41 france 30 france 29



1.24 41 average 26 average 33



0.97 37 germany 25 germany 38
0.80 35 hungary 21 hungary 44
0.69 29 italy 29 italy 42
0.69 31 austria 24 austria 45
0.62 24 bulgaria 37 bulgaria 39
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Response to the following question: do you think it is or is not acceptable for Chinese companies to… a) build infrastructure such as bridges or ports in Europe; b) buy a football team in Europe; c) buy a tech company in Europe; d) buy a newspaper in Europe; e) own infrastructure such as bridges or ports in Europe?

Acceptable Don’t know Unacceptable
Chinese companies building infrastructure such as bridges or ports in Europe
39 18 43
Chinese companies buying a football team in Europe
37 21 42
Chinese companies buying a technology company in Europe
31 17 52
Chinese companies buying a newspaper in Europe
31 17 59
Chinese companies owning infrastructure such as bridges or ports in Europe
18 17 65


(not too bad; china likely will gain more ground in the long run on bumpy roads)
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Re: 俄对美英德法波乌等战争之乌克兰大反攻之前之前之前,和然后,和中国,和宇宙

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meiyoumajia 写了: 6月 7, 2023, 5:24 pm Responses to the following question: generally speaking, thinking about China, which of the following best reflects your view on what it is to Europe?

column 1: friendliness_index == ratio of column 5 to column 7


column 2: An ally – that shares our interests and values
column 3: A necessary partner – with which we must strategically cooperate
column 5: the sum of the above two columns


column 6: don't know


column 9: A rival – with which we need to compete
column 10: An adversary with which we are in conflict
column 7: the sum of the above two columns


6.60 8 58 bulgaria 66 24 10 bulgaria 8 2

2.30 8 54 hungary 62 11 27 hungary 24 3

1.74 3 51 spain 54 15 31 spain 22 9
1.47 4 46 austria 50 16 34 austria 23 11
1.35 1 49 netherland 50 13 37 netherland 28 9





1.31 3 43 average 46 18 35 average 24 11



1.26 3 36 poland 39 30 31 poland 21 10
1.23 1 42 italy 43 22 35 italy 27 8

0.93 1 40 uk 41 15 44 uk 27 17
0.83 3 31 france 34 25 41 france 28 13
0.70 2 33 germany 35 15 50 germany 32 18
0.66 2 31 sweden 33 17 50 sweden 24 26






https://ecfr.eu/publication/keeping-ame ... not-russia

Methodology
This report is based on a public opinion poll of adult populations (aged 18 and over) conducted in April 2023 in 11 EU countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden). The total number of respondents was 16,168.

The polls were carried out for ECFR as an online survey through Datapraxis and YouGov in Austria (1,000 respondents; 6-12 April), Denmark (1,019; 6-11 April), France (3,087; 6-14 April), Germany (3,023; 6-13 April), Italy (1,000; 6-12 April), Poland (1,525; 6-18 April), Spain (1,502; 6-12 April), and Sweden (1,003; 6-12 April); and through Datapraxis and Alpha in Bulgaria (1,000; 6-19 April); Datapraxis and Szondaphone in Hungary (1,002; 6-20 April); and Datapraxis and Analitiqs in the Netherlands (1,007; 4-13 April). In all these countries the sample was nationally representative of basic demographics and past votes.

For certain questions – concerning the perception of other countries as allies, partners, rivals, or adversaries; the future relationship with Russia; and the position to be adopted in the event of a US-China conflict over Taiwan – national samples were split so equal numbers of respondents answered from the perspective of Europe and from their own country.

About the authors
Jana Puglierin is head of the Berlin office and senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She is also director of ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe initiative, which aims to shed new light on the changing international order and how it affects Europe’s place in the world.

Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He is a lead ECFR analyst on European public opinion. He contributes to ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe initiative, which aims to shed new light on the changing international order and how it affects Europe’s place in the world.

a similar poll on russia

Response to the following question: generally speaking, thinking about Russia, which of the following best reflects your view on what it is to Europe?

3.42 18 47 bulgaria 65 16 19 bulgaria 2 17


0.72 8 31 hungary 39 8 54 hungary 8 46
0.64 3 31 austria 34 13 53 austria 7 46

0.43 3 21 italy 24 20 56 italy 19 37


0.37 4 19 average 23 13 63 average 9 55


0.31 2 18 spain 20 15 65 spain 11 54
0.26 4 14 germany 18 12 70 germany 8 62
0.25 3 13 france 16 21 63 france 13 50
0.18 2 12 netherland 14 9 77 netherland 10 67
0.14 1 10 sweden 11 11 78 sweden 8 70


0.10 3 5 poland 8 14 78 poland 7 71
0.10 1 7 uk 8 9 83 uk 9 74
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meiyoumajia 写了: 6月 7, 2023, 7:02 pm a similar poll on russia

Response to the following question: generally speaking, thinking about Russia, which of the following best reflects your view on what it is to Europe?

3.42 18 47 bulgaria 65 16 19 bulgaria 2 17


0.72 8 31 hungary 39 8 54 hungary 8 46
0.64 3 31 austria 34 13 53 austria 7 46

0.43 3 21 italy 24 20 56 italy 19 37


0.37 4 19 average 23 13 63 average 9 55


0.31 2 18 spain 20 15 65 spain 11 54
0.26 4 14 germany 18 12 70 germany 8 62
0.25 3 13 france 16 21 63 france 13 50
0.18 2 12 netherland 14 9 77 netherland 10 67
0.14 1 10 sweden 11 11 78 sweden 8 70


0.10 3 5 poland 8 14 78 poland 7 71
0.10 1 7 uk 8 9 83 uk 9 74
similar to the cases on china and russia


Response to the following question: generally speaking, thinking about the US, which of the following best reflects your view on what it is to Europe?

21.75 55 32 uk 87 9 4 uk 4 0


16.40 50 32 poland 82 14 5 poland 3 2
14.00 43 41 netherland 84 10 6 netherland 4 2


9.11 41 41 sweden 82 9 9 sweden 5 4
7.09 23 55 spain 78 11 11 spain 8 3



6.25 32 43 average 75 14 12 average 7 4




5.71 29 51 hungary 80 6 14 hungary 9 5
5.31 17 52 italy 69 18 13 italy 7 6
4.71 22 44 france 66 20 14 france 11 3
4.38 22 48 austria 70 14 16 austria 10 6
3.83 35 34 germany 69 13 18 germany 12 6



2.52 13 40 bulgaria 53 27 21 bulgaria 9 12


(very solid. bulgaria is friendly both to usa and to russia; hungary and austrial seemlingly still have similarity; germany and france as european leaders don't always follow usa's step; uk is the most solid satellite state to usa in international relationships. later, more about this over taiwan)
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Responses to the following question: imagine China were to invade Taiwan and the United States came to its defence and joined the war. What would you like your country to do? a) I would like it to take America's side; b) Don't know; c) I would like it to take China's side; d) I would like it to remain neutral.

Support the US
Don’t know
Support China
Remain neutral


add the first column, the ratio between "favoring usa" and "favoring china"

ranked by the "neural" percentage
---------->
1.50 9 austria 5 6 80
2.00 8 bulgaria 9 4 79
6.67 20 hungary 4 3 73

4.50 18 italy 13 4 65
4.00 24 spain 6 6 64
30.00 30 netherland 7 1 62



7.03 23 average 10 5 62


3.29 23 germany 10 7 60



3.43 24 france 16 7 53
6.20 31 poland 13 5 51
7.00 28 uk 18 4 50
8.75 35 sweden 12 4 49
<-------------



one more time
ranked by usa support percentage
8.75 35 sweden 12 4 49
6.20 31 poland 13 5 51
30.00 30 netherland 7 1 62
7.00 28 uk 18 4 50


4.00 24 spain 6 6 64
3.43 24 france 16 7 53
3.29 23 germany 10 7 60



7.03 23 average 10 5 62



6.67 20 hungary 4 3 73
4.50 18 italy 13 4 65


1.50 9 austria 5 6 80
2.00 8 bulgaria 9 4 79
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Responses to the following question: how likely or unlikely do you consider each of the following events happening within the next two years?


Ukraine winning the war with Russia::::::
Highly likely 8
Rather likely 25
(33)


Don’t know 22



Rather unlikely 22
Highly unlikely 17
(39)
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Re: 俄对美英德法波乌等战争之乌克兰大反攻之前之前之前,和然后,和中国,和宇宙

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