https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... explainer/
The extremist group claimed responsibility for the attack, according to its news agency Amaq. A U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information said the United States had “no reason to doubt” the group’s claim. Independent terrorism experts also said the characteristics of the raid appeared consistent with an Islamic State attack.
On March 7, the U.S. Embassy in Russia said that it was “monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts,” and it urged U.S. citizens to avoid large gatherings. The U.S. government said it had also shared the information with Russian officials.
While the Islamic State has not said which of its branches was involved in the attack, two U.S. officials said that recent intelligence reporting indicated the Islamic State’s Afghanistan and Pakistan branch, known as Islamic State-Khorasan or ISIS-K, was active inside Russia.
Earlier this month, Russia’s Federal Security Service said it had foiled an ISIS-K attack on a Moscow synagogue, the country’s Tass news agency reported.
According to a 2017 report from the Soufan Center, which studies violent extremism, more foreign fighters joined Islamic State from the former Soviet republics than any other region. In 2015, militants in Russian provinces and republics pledged allegiance to the group and formed IS-Caucasus Province.
The Islamic State has carried out other major attacks on Russian interests abroad: In 2015, a Russian plane carrying 224 people exploded over Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, killing all onboard. A local Islamic State branch claimed responsibility for the attack.
In 2022, several people were killed in an ISIS-K attack on the Russian Embassy in Kabul.
Russia’s heavy-handed rule over the Muslim-majority North Caucasus region and its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the long-running civil war have spurred jihadist narratives against Russia and President Vladimir Putin.
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Last year’s U.S. intelligence leaks on the Discord messaging platform revealed that Afghanistan, in particular, had become an important staging ground for planned Islamic State attacks across Europe and Asia, while a report from a U.N. Security Council committee last summer said that member states were growing increasingly concerned about ISIS-K’s ability “to project a threat into the region, and further afield into Europe.”
ISIS-K has carried out large-scale attacks — some also preceded by the United States warning of imminent danger, including a deadly attack on the Kabul airport during the international withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Dozens were killed, including 13 U.S. service members. Hours before the attack, U.S. and Western governments warned people to stay away from the airport amid a specific threat from ISIS-K.
Earlier this year, at least 95 people were killed in bombing attacks in Iran; the Islamic State claimed responsibility.
Inside Afghanistan, the attacks have decreased in recent years, however, according to a report from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy published in September.