回顾和展望乌克兰情况
版主： Caravel， TheMatrix， molen
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#279 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
有时
身体强壮是多么地重要
对乌克兰大多数男人来说
现在尤其。。。
身体强壮是多么地重要
对乌克兰大多数男人来说
现在尤其。。。
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#280 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 2024-04-30
Western insurers say Russian oil price cap doesn't work
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - A group of Western insurers has said a Russian oil price cap has become unenforceable and only pushed more ships into joining a shadow fleet, delivering one of the harshest rebukes to the measure that had been meant to cut revenue to the Kremlin.
...
The International Group of P&I Clubs said in a statement the price cap has had little success since being introduced two years ago as Russia has switched to its own fleet as well as ships outside Western oversight.
The statement was submitted as written evidence to a UK parliamentary hearing on Tuesday. The group says it comprises 12 marine third-party liability insurers covering 87% of the world's ocean-going tonnage.
...
"The oil price cap appears increasingly unenforceable as more ships and associated services move into this parallel trade. We estimate around 800 tankers have already left the International Group Clubs as a direct result of the introduction of the oil price cap," the statement said.
...
Tom Keatinge, director of the Royal United Services Institute's Centre for Finance and Security, told the hearing: "Within the reach of the UK and the G7 there are insurers who are providing insurance that is in breach of the oil price cap".
Western insurers say Russian oil price cap doesn't work
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - A group of Western insurers has said a Russian oil price cap has become unenforceable and only pushed more ships into joining a shadow fleet, delivering one of the harshest rebukes to the measure that had been meant to cut revenue to the Kremlin.
...
The International Group of P&I Clubs said in a statement the price cap has had little success since being introduced two years ago as Russia has switched to its own fleet as well as ships outside Western oversight.
The statement was submitted as written evidence to a UK parliamentary hearing on Tuesday. The group says it comprises 12 marine third-party liability insurers covering 87% of the world's ocean-going tonnage.
...
"The oil price cap appears increasingly unenforceable as more ships and associated services move into this parallel trade. We estimate around 800 tankers have already left the International Group Clubs as a direct result of the introduction of the oil price cap," the statement said.
...
Tom Keatinge, director of the Royal United Services Institute's Centre for Finance and Security, told the hearing: "Within the reach of the UK and the G7 there are insurers who are providing insurance that is in breach of the oil price cap".
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#281 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
M-1 tanks = abrams ...
M-2 fighting vehicles == bradley ...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 8209ce7002
The War-Weary 47th Mechanized Is Ukraine’s ‘Emergency Brigade.’ The Pentagon Is Rushing Replacement Vehicles To Keep The Exhausted Unit In The Fight.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade has been fighting non-stop for nearly a year.
When Ukrainian defenses collapsed outside the village of Ocheretyne, a few miles west of the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine a little over a week ago, the Ukrainian army did what it usually does in the case of a crisis.
It deployed the 47th Mechanized Brigade—the army’s “emergency brigade,” to borrow the Ukrainian Conflict Intelligence Team’s term. The all-volunteer 47th Mechanized Brigade is trained by NATO instructors and rides in American-made M-1 tanks, M-2 fighting vehicles and M-109 howitzers.
....
Citing reckless command decisions that have exposed combat troops to unnecessary risk, the Ukrainian defense ministry has replaced the brigade’s commander three times since September. The 47th Mechanized Brigade “struggles to find a commander worth keeping,” explained Militaryland.net, an analysis group that tracks the Ukrainian military developments.
Now led by its fourth commander in seven months—Col. Yan Yatsishen, formerly of the well-regarded 56th Motorized Brigade—the 47th Mechanized Brigade is practically begging for a break.
Now led by its fourth commander in seven months—Col. Yan Yatsishen, formerly of the well-regarded 56th Motorized Brigade—the 47th Mechanized Brigade is practically begging for a break.
...
The Americans are also helping rebuild the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s assault battalions, which ride in the 33-ton M-2s and do much of the hardest fighting.
When the U.S. Congress finally approved fresh aid to Ukraine last week—ending a six-month blockade by a minority of Russia-friendly Republican lawmakers—the very first new shipment of arms to Ukraine included an unspecified number of replacement M-2s. Perhaps dozens. The 47th Mechanized Brigade is the only Ukrainian unit that uses the vehicle.
It has suffered hundreds of casualties. It has lost at least 40 of its roughly 200 M-2 fighting vehicles and five of its 31 M-1 tanks. Fearful of losing more of the 69-ton M-1s to Russian drones, the brigade recently pulled the surviving tanks off the front line so unit leaders could rethink their tactics.
...
M-2 fighting vehicles == bradley ...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 8209ce7002
The War-Weary 47th Mechanized Is Ukraine’s ‘Emergency Brigade.’ The Pentagon Is Rushing Replacement Vehicles To Keep The Exhausted Unit In The Fight.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade has been fighting non-stop for nearly a year.
When Ukrainian defenses collapsed outside the village of Ocheretyne, a few miles west of the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine a little over a week ago, the Ukrainian army did what it usually does in the case of a crisis.
It deployed the 47th Mechanized Brigade—the army’s “emergency brigade,” to borrow the Ukrainian Conflict Intelligence Team’s term. The all-volunteer 47th Mechanized Brigade is trained by NATO instructors and rides in American-made M-1 tanks, M-2 fighting vehicles and M-109 howitzers.
....
Citing reckless command decisions that have exposed combat troops to unnecessary risk, the Ukrainian defense ministry has replaced the brigade’s commander three times since September. The 47th Mechanized Brigade “struggles to find a commander worth keeping,” explained Militaryland.net, an analysis group that tracks the Ukrainian military developments.
Now led by its fourth commander in seven months—Col. Yan Yatsishen, formerly of the well-regarded 56th Motorized Brigade—the 47th Mechanized Brigade is practically begging for a break.
Now led by its fourth commander in seven months—Col. Yan Yatsishen, formerly of the well-regarded 56th Motorized Brigade—the 47th Mechanized Brigade is practically begging for a break.
...
The Americans are also helping rebuild the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s assault battalions, which ride in the 33-ton M-2s and do much of the hardest fighting.
When the U.S. Congress finally approved fresh aid to Ukraine last week—ending a six-month blockade by a minority of Russia-friendly Republican lawmakers—the very first new shipment of arms to Ukraine included an unspecified number of replacement M-2s. Perhaps dozens. The 47th Mechanized Brigade is the only Ukrainian unit that uses the vehicle.
It has suffered hundreds of casualties. It has lost at least 40 of its roughly 200 M-2 fighting vehicles and five of its 31 M-1 tanks. Fearful of losing more of the 69-ton M-1s to Russian drones, the brigade recently pulled the surviving tanks off the front line so unit leaders could rethink their tactics.
...
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#282 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
there is definitely a half-truth in the article
if the recruiting officers are catching deserters but not dodgers, then why are almost all other men also trying their best to stay away from the same recruiting officers?
the usage of "the bravest" itself is not helping ...
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/0 ... ul-ukraine
Ukraine’s draft dodgers are living in fear
Ever more conscripts are needed against Russia’s offensive
...a group of former philosophy students...By early summer 2022 they had refashioned a beauty salon into a new cultural hotspot, selling erotic photography and moonshine vodka. ..
No one remembers exactly when the party stopped. It was a shock when the first young man from the group left the country. But then a second departed. Customers began vanishing, as the fear of being sent to the front lines grew. In late 2023 the bar’s owner escaped across the border with a medical exemption certificate that said he had diabetes. Ultimately only “Sasha”, the barman, remained.
The idea was madness, opening a bar in the throes of war. Russian warships dominated Odessa’s horizon and the streets were barricaded with tank traps. Normal people were preserving whatever they had. But for a group of former philosophy students, it was the moment dreams were made and they poured everything into the project. By early summer 2022 they had refashioned a beauty salon into a new cultural hotspot, selling erotic photography and moonshine vodka. They mused about becoming partisans to fight the Russians should they ever appear.
No one remembers exactly when the party stopped. It was a shock when the first young man from the group left the country. But then a second departed. Customers began vanishing, as the fear of being sent to the front lines grew. In late 2023 the bar’s owner escaped across the border with a medical exemption certificate that said he had diabetes. Ultimately only “Sasha”, the barman, remained.
Vladyslav, who is 24, also began the war as a committed patriot. In the early months, he watched the reports of Russian atrocities, and felt a strong urge to fight. Then the males in his life started to leave— they went east, to the front line. Friends, relatives, his father and step-father all became soldiers. And Vladyslav started receiving chilling updates about the reality of war with too little ammunition. Many of his friends died. A colleague was killed just three days after being sent to Bakhmut. Another was assumed dead after being captured in Mariupol, only to be later returned in a prisoner exchange, saying he had been tortured. Vladyslav’s family now urge him to stay clear of the conscription officers who prowl Odessa’s streets. He is heeding their advice and hiding. “It’s not that I’m scared to fight, but I’m scared because I know what’s happening out there.”
For a generation of young men in Odessa, life has been postponed indefinitely. Choices are not black and white. Of those not already fighting, more and more are hiding from Odessa’s conscription officers, who have a reputation for ruthlessness. Men in green uniforms conduct regular sweeps of the city’s buses, gyms and train stations, often dragging their targets off by force. That has tested allegiances in a city that has always worn its Ukrainian identity lightly.
...
The recent lowering of the minimum mobilisation age from 27 to 25 (soon to include Vladyslav) is a further challenge. Parliament took months to pass the new law, which comes into effect on May 1st. ..
For men like Sasha, the barman, that presents an impossible dilemma. He feels stuck in the middle, he says, not wanting to leave his home but fearful the draft officers might knock on his door next. “You can leave, but it’s a one-way ticket. You can go to the front lines, but that may be a one-way ticket too. Or you can stay here and live in fear.” One estimate late last year suggested 650,000 men of fighting age had left Ukraine, the majority by illegal means. Getting papers to leave was once a matter of paying a few thousand dollars to a corrupt officer. Now it is nearly impossible. The need on the front lines is stronger than ever, and no one is volunteering to fight.
Vladyslav has witnessed several raids. He describes the draft officers as “fishermen” who “catch” their victims, to use the local lingo. “The officers lurk near bus stops and stop the buses as they depart, checking the documents of any guy that matches their profile.” Odessa is being singled out by leaders in Kyiv, he says. There, recruitment plans are far less aggressive. “Everyone says victory is near, but it feels quite far away if you are a 25-year-old in Odessa.” ******************Only the bravest young men ride public transport.********************
The conscription officers are reluctant to talk. The Economist sent two requests for comment, only to be told to send a third. Two army officers requested anonymity just to say they were uncomfortable discussing the subject. Ruslan Horbenko, an mp who is deputy head of the parliamentary human rights committee, says draft officers have an unenviable task. Most of the forcible detentions they make concern not draft dodgers, he says, but deserters. In some brigades as many as 10% of the soldiers are believed to have fled. Along with western regions, Odessa is one of their prime destinations, he says. Soldiers who have stayed on the front lines feel “abandoned” by those who flee, and recruitment officers take it out on the deserters they catch.
Those who are still in Odessa are mostly hiding. A trip to the philosophers’ bar on a recent Thursday night found only one man present. Female patrons, seated between racy pictures of women aimed at a missing male audience, gossiped about mobilisation. The rumours were flying: draft officers purportedly got an 8,000 hryvnia ($202) bonus for each guy they “catch”; Volodymyr Zelensky was about to lower the draft age to 20. Russia was supposedly preparing a new operation to take Odessa. Each of the rumours had a source: an aunt, married to a security officer; a father who works in the general staff; a brother on the front lines. One woman, who was 23 but looked much older, said her boyfriend is also in hiding, and refuses to move about town except by taxi. A barwoman admitted business had gone downhill since the men started disappearing. The bar will soon close, she said.
Vladyslav faces financial struggles, too. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion he earned a reasonable living selling plumbing equipment. Since then he has been unemployed. Without military papers he cannot look for a job. His girlfriend of five years is expecting their first child. He dreams of a life as a new father in a peaceful Ukraine, but that is hard to imagine with Russian missiles raining in. For Sasha, the last of Odessa’s philosopher dreamers, hope dies last. “Every night we go to bed with hope,” he says. “Hope that we will wake up in the morning alive.”
if the recruiting officers are catching deserters but not dodgers, then why are almost all other men also trying their best to stay away from the same recruiting officers?
the usage of "the bravest" itself is not helping ...
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/0 ... ul-ukraine
Ukraine’s draft dodgers are living in fear
Ever more conscripts are needed against Russia’s offensive
...a group of former philosophy students...By early summer 2022 they had refashioned a beauty salon into a new cultural hotspot, selling erotic photography and moonshine vodka. ..
No one remembers exactly when the party stopped. It was a shock when the first young man from the group left the country. But then a second departed. Customers began vanishing, as the fear of being sent to the front lines grew. In late 2023 the bar’s owner escaped across the border with a medical exemption certificate that said he had diabetes. Ultimately only “Sasha”, the barman, remained.
The idea was madness, opening a bar in the throes of war. Russian warships dominated Odessa’s horizon and the streets were barricaded with tank traps. Normal people were preserving whatever they had. But for a group of former philosophy students, it was the moment dreams were made and they poured everything into the project. By early summer 2022 they had refashioned a beauty salon into a new cultural hotspot, selling erotic photography and moonshine vodka. They mused about becoming partisans to fight the Russians should they ever appear.
No one remembers exactly when the party stopped. It was a shock when the first young man from the group left the country. But then a second departed. Customers began vanishing, as the fear of being sent to the front lines grew. In late 2023 the bar’s owner escaped across the border with a medical exemption certificate that said he had diabetes. Ultimately only “Sasha”, the barman, remained.
Vladyslav, who is 24, also began the war as a committed patriot. In the early months, he watched the reports of Russian atrocities, and felt a strong urge to fight. Then the males in his life started to leave— they went east, to the front line. Friends, relatives, his father and step-father all became soldiers. And Vladyslav started receiving chilling updates about the reality of war with too little ammunition. Many of his friends died. A colleague was killed just three days after being sent to Bakhmut. Another was assumed dead after being captured in Mariupol, only to be later returned in a prisoner exchange, saying he had been tortured. Vladyslav’s family now urge him to stay clear of the conscription officers who prowl Odessa’s streets. He is heeding their advice and hiding. “It’s not that I’m scared to fight, but I’m scared because I know what’s happening out there.”
For a generation of young men in Odessa, life has been postponed indefinitely. Choices are not black and white. Of those not already fighting, more and more are hiding from Odessa’s conscription officers, who have a reputation for ruthlessness. Men in green uniforms conduct regular sweeps of the city’s buses, gyms and train stations, often dragging their targets off by force. That has tested allegiances in a city that has always worn its Ukrainian identity lightly.
...
The recent lowering of the minimum mobilisation age from 27 to 25 (soon to include Vladyslav) is a further challenge. Parliament took months to pass the new law, which comes into effect on May 1st. ..
For men like Sasha, the barman, that presents an impossible dilemma. He feels stuck in the middle, he says, not wanting to leave his home but fearful the draft officers might knock on his door next. “You can leave, but it’s a one-way ticket. You can go to the front lines, but that may be a one-way ticket too. Or you can stay here and live in fear.” One estimate late last year suggested 650,000 men of fighting age had left Ukraine, the majority by illegal means. Getting papers to leave was once a matter of paying a few thousand dollars to a corrupt officer. Now it is nearly impossible. The need on the front lines is stronger than ever, and no one is volunteering to fight.
Vladyslav has witnessed several raids. He describes the draft officers as “fishermen” who “catch” their victims, to use the local lingo. “The officers lurk near bus stops and stop the buses as they depart, checking the documents of any guy that matches their profile.” Odessa is being singled out by leaders in Kyiv, he says. There, recruitment plans are far less aggressive. “Everyone says victory is near, but it feels quite far away if you are a 25-year-old in Odessa.” ******************Only the bravest young men ride public transport.********************
The conscription officers are reluctant to talk. The Economist sent two requests for comment, only to be told to send a third. Two army officers requested anonymity just to say they were uncomfortable discussing the subject. Ruslan Horbenko, an mp who is deputy head of the parliamentary human rights committee, says draft officers have an unenviable task. Most of the forcible detentions they make concern not draft dodgers, he says, but deserters. In some brigades as many as 10% of the soldiers are believed to have fled. Along with western regions, Odessa is one of their prime destinations, he says. Soldiers who have stayed on the front lines feel “abandoned” by those who flee, and recruitment officers take it out on the deserters they catch.
Those who are still in Odessa are mostly hiding. A trip to the philosophers’ bar on a recent Thursday night found only one man present. Female patrons, seated between racy pictures of women aimed at a missing male audience, gossiped about mobilisation. The rumours were flying: draft officers purportedly got an 8,000 hryvnia ($202) bonus for each guy they “catch”; Volodymyr Zelensky was about to lower the draft age to 20. Russia was supposedly preparing a new operation to take Odessa. Each of the rumours had a source: an aunt, married to a security officer; a father who works in the general staff; a brother on the front lines. One woman, who was 23 but looked much older, said her boyfriend is also in hiding, and refuses to move about town except by taxi. A barwoman admitted business had gone downhill since the men started disappearing. The bar will soon close, she said.
Vladyslav faces financial struggles, too. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion he earned a reasonable living selling plumbing equipment. Since then he has been unemployed. Without military papers he cannot look for a job. His girlfriend of five years is expecting their first child. He dreams of a life as a new father in a peaceful Ukraine, but that is hard to imagine with Russian missiles raining in. For Sasha, the last of Odessa’s philosopher dreamers, hope dies last. “Every night we go to bed with hope,” he says. “Hope that we will wake up in the morning alive.”
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#283 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
toms and jerries, run and run
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Noodle2020
- 见习写手
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#284 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
睁着眼睛说瞎话，为了五斗米良心都不要了meiyoumajia 写了： ↑2024年 4月 3日 12:00 10多年前，乌克兰差不多一半人偏向俄国。
但在那之前，乌克兰就已经在朝乌克兰族化方向快速行走。2007年，与纳粹合作并屠杀数万波兰平民的Shukhevych被正式尊为乌克兰国家英雄。 2010年，bandera也被尊为。。。
到2008年，至少1/6的乌克兰人已经在班得啦的旗下
（那时克里米亚和顿巴斯地区还没有分离出去。）
可见国家内部的转极化/加速分裂
viewtopic.php?t=457460
北约的代理人战争/大冲突从2014年政变/乌克兰内战时就正式开始了。2014年至少有3个外国出生的人成了部长。
minsk协议允许顿巴斯高度自治，但乌克兰不（愿意）履行。主推它的德国女总理后来也称那些谈判只是为了给乌克兰争取（军事上加强它的）时间。
2022年，俄国称乌克兰有2月底到3月初进攻（以完全解决顿巴斯问题）。乌克兰的大多数精锐都被布置到了乌东。
俄罗斯先发制人，从多个方向入侵乌克兰，基本只是乌克兰内部残杀大升级变成了北约+乌对俄战争，俄乌之间大残杀正式开始。
现在乌克兰弱势明显，北约（部分国家）在考虑派部分部队进入某些地区行驶某种职责。
乌克兰的未来有多种不小的可能。
一种比较大的：乌克兰会被分裂成几小块。其中有一块会事实上被罗马尼亚掌控。（在几个月前普京正式讲话中，他特别表示：对罗马尼亚人区没有兴趣。对乌克兰的galicia和匈牙利地区也表示没有兴趣，但没拿它们举例。）
（台湾会成为同类代理吗？）
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#285 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
你真是万分无知
或者
你只是被一边倒的宣传洗脑到无法接受基本情况
或者
你只是昧着良心在攻击我这个相当客观的依据相当可靠事实的人
要不，你随便选一条具体内容看是否有比较可靠的依据？随便看了你的一些跟帖，知道你是个什么人了。只给你一次机会。
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#289 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
what to believe?
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meiyoumajia楼主
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#290 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
that's something new to me
Everyday life in Ukraine
The very slow TCC worker could not catch up with the new Leopard driver and began throwing stones after him.
Everyday life in Ukraine
The very slow TCC worker could not catch up with the new Leopard driver and began throwing stones after him.