回顾和展望乌克兰情况

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

a dock area?

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really?

[meiyoumajia]

2013年（乌克兰还没有分裂），也就是11年前（原）乌克兰人口大约4千5百万。很多人离开了乌克兰。（包括克里米亚和其它俄实际控制区）净流出1千多万。


乌克兰政府控制区大约3千多万，很可能不足3千3百万。下面的调查是针对乌克兰政府的所有控制区，而不包括其它区（俄控制区和境外）。

俄国有120万左右源于乌克兰的难民。
俄控制区（包括克里米亚等）人口应该有400万以上（2020年左右或更早有800万以上）。这是非常保守的估计。实际更可能是500（900），因为克里米亚、顿涅斯城和卢甘斯卡城都没有成为过直接战区；它们原有人口共近350万。（2百多万克里米亚人中绝大多数人是俄族。）

因此，调查没有包括500万以上的在俄国和俄控制区的（原）乌克兰人（大多数很可能已经转入俄罗斯籍）。也没有包括其它各国共有的500万以上的难民。

按照这个调查结果可推（“原”）乌克兰人口对俄印象负面的比例下限大约是：
74%*33/40 = 61%


实际可能更接近
74%*39/45 = 64%


很有可能的是：“原”乌克兰人口中约1/3仍然对俄（人）没有反感。
（前面的调查在说：乌克兰政府控制区中的1/5人口对俄罗斯人没有反感。）



https://kyivindependent.com/poll-74-of- ... -russians/
The survey was conducted via telephone interviews with 2,005 respondents living across Ukraine, except in areas under Russian occupation. The survey was conducted between March 11 and March 16.

According to the latest poll, 20% of Ukrainians said they feel neutral toward Russians, and just 4% feel positively or very positively toward Russians.

While 74% of Ukrainians have a "negative or very negative attitude towards citizens of Russia," this figure rose to 82% among respondents in Kyiv.

In the east of Ukraine, 65% of respondents said they felt negative toward Russians, with 24% responding they felt neutral.


https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

“wrong” numbers for US

按照美国官方： 75 （到2月底）+ 61 （上月底通过已经开始的）

[meiyoumajia]

really?

could israel help？

[meiyoumajia]

no "no string attached" ...

[meiyoumajia]

how about that?

[meiyoumajia]

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17%
45%
26
12

[meiyoumajia]

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lol

[meiyoumajia]

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/ho ... 240313.pdf

Statement of Dr. Daniel Patt Senior Fellow
The Hudson Institute
Before the House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation
on
“Too Critical to Fail: Getting Software Right in an Age of Rapid Innovation”
March 13, 2024

Once a conflict begins, adaptability and scaling drive outcomes. We must seize the current moment to prepare. For examples about how conflict drives adaptation, consider that the lifecycle of a radio in Ukraine is only about 3 months before it needs to be reprogrammed or swapped out as the Russians optimize their electronic warfare against it. The peak efficiency of a new weapon system is only about 2 weeks before countermeasures emerge. As another example of superior weapons systems handicapped by lack of software adaptability, consider that Excalibur precision artillery rounds initially had a 70% efficiency rate hitting targets when first used in Ukraine. However, after 6 weeks, efficiency declined to only 6% as the Russians adapted their electronic warfare systems to counter it2. This shows how quickly adversaries can adapt to new technologies. This lack of adaptability is not an inherent property of software but rather a consequence of how we choose to manage it. After all, Ukrainian units with organic programming capability to rapidly adapt their UAV software have about 50% efficiency, while those reliant on companies and longer supply chains to make changes struggle to hit 20% efficiency. Keeping software in a pliant, fluid state is the only way to maintain tactical innovation.

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

2013年（乌克兰还没有分裂），也就是11年前（原）乌克兰人口大约4千5百万。很多人离开了乌克兰。（包括克里米亚和其它俄实际控制区）净流出1千多万。


乌克兰政府控制区大约3千多万，很可能不足3千3百万。下面的调查是针对乌克兰政府的所有控制区，而不包括其它区（俄控制区和境外）。

俄国有120万左右源于乌克兰的难民。
俄控制区（包括克里米亚等）人口应该有400万以上（2020年左右或更早有800万以上）。这是非常保守的估计。实际更可能是500（900），因为克里米亚、顿涅斯城和卢甘斯卡城都没有成为过直接战区；它们原有人口共近350万。（2百多万克里米亚人中绝大多数人是俄族。）

因此，调查没有包括500万以上的在俄国和俄控制区的（原）乌克兰人（大多数很可能已经转入俄罗斯籍）。也没有包括其它各国共有的500万以上的难民。

按照这个调查结果可推（“原”）乌克兰人口对俄印象负面的比例下限大约是：
74%*33/40 = 61%


实际可能更接近
74%*39/45 = 64%


很有可能的是：“原”乌克兰人口中约1/3仍然对俄（人）没有反感。
（前面的调查在说：乌克兰政府控制区中的1/5人口对俄罗斯人没有反感。）



https://kyivindependent.com/poll-74-of- ... -russians/
The survey was conducted via telephone interviews with 2,005 respondents living across Ukraine, except in areas under Russian occupation. The survey was conducted between March 11 and March 16.

According to the latest poll, 20% of Ukrainians said they feel neutral toward Russians, and just 4% feel positively or very positively toward Russians.

While 74% of Ukrainians have a "negative or very negative attitude towards citizens of Russia," this figure rose to 82% among respondents in Kyiv.

In the east of Ukraine, 65% of respondents said they felt negative toward Russians, with 24% responding they felt neutral.


https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

他父亲参加过乌克兰民族主义组织。当然他也是乌克兰族。是亲俄的乌克兰人中最有名的人物之一。俄国用很多（50个？）俘虏（包括第36海军陆战旅代旅长和azov的最高军事领导人和多个azov高级军官）把他交换出来。被现在那个z总统开除了乌克兰国籍。

[meiyoumajia]

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