新未名空间

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-take-a ... 2024-04-23

April 22 (Reuters) - The United States has preliminarily discussed sanctions on some Chinese banks but does not yet have a plan to implement such measures, a U.S. official told Reuters on Tuesday, as Washington seeks ways to curb Beijing's support for Russia.


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The U.S. has sanctioned smaller Chinese banks in the past, such as the Bank of Kunlun, over various issues, including working with Iranian institutions.
But Washington has so far been reluctant to implement sanctions on major Chinese banks – long deemed by analysts as a "nuclear" option – because of the huge ripple effects it could have on the global economy and U.S.-China relations.


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China and Russia have fostered more trade in yuan instead of the dollar in the wake of the Ukraine war, potentially shielding their economies from possible U.S. sanctions. The United States and other Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia's financial system after Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Several banks in China, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey have boosted their sanctions-compliance requirements, resulting in delays or the rejection of money transfers to Moscow, Reuters reported in March. The delays show how U.S. restrictions can have a strong knock-on effect.
Banks, cautious of sanctions, have started to ask their clients to provide written guarantees that no person or entity from the U.S. SDN (Special Designated Nationals) list is involved in a deal or is a beneficiary of a payment.

https://www.cnas.org/publications/comme ... -you-think

CIPS is not China’s carbon copy of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) as they have core technical and contextual differences (see Figure 1). Technically, CIPS clears and settles renminbi (RMB) transactions, whereas SWIFT is a secured messaging protocol that lets banks “talk” to one another. Contextually, CIPS was created to improve the efficiency of RMB transactions, whereas SWIFT was created by institutions from the U.S., the European Union and G-7 countries to enhance global financial messaging.

Chinese policymakers have to contend with a policy paradox—China wants CIPS to be connected to the world yet also be a viable alternative to existing financial institutions.

SWIFT and CIPS play different roles in international finance. SWIFT is a global secured messaging system that allows banks to communicate with each other with high efficiency and low costs. It does not move funds. Instead, it facilitates the secured flow of financial information across borders to support transactions. CIPS, by contrast, is an RMB clearing and settlement mechanism (clearing entails movement of funds from institution A to institution B, and settlement is the finalization of moved funds). In the scenario where user A wants to send funds to user B across borders, there are various options. If their banks are in the SWIFT network, then their banks can communicate with one another via SWIFT codes to complete the transaction frictionlessly. If one of their banks is not in the SWIFT network, then the transaction will need to go through intermediary banks in the SWIFT network, which increases the time and cost of the transaction. CIPS is different from SWIFT, as it is an RMB clearing and settling institution that utilizes SWIFT messaging to facilitate RMB transactions with the rest of the world. China’s CIPS is more similar to the United States’ Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS), which clears and settles domestic and cross-border U.S. dollar transactions and is plugged into SWIFT for cross-border messaging.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... swift-says

Dollar ranks first with 47%, followed by euro, pound and yuan


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The portion of transactions involving the yuan rose to 4.7% in March, the highest since Swift created a new baseline in July. The euro’s share dipped below 22% last month, under the 24.4% level logged when Swift introduced the new scale.

英镑降至6.5%

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Swift’s data doesn’t encompass the entirety of the $7.5 trillion-per-day foreign-exchange market, but the report does shed light on the vast pools of currency flows that drive global trade over time.
When Swift first began tracking the yuan’s usage in 2010, its share of the global total was less than 0.1%. But China is increasingly carving out a role for its currency in global trade and finance, a push hastened by the levy of US sanctions against Russia

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https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-s ... t-fcf76dcc

U.S. Takes Aim at Chinese Banks Aiding Russia War Effort
Washington says Beijing’s dual-use trade has helped Moscow rebuild its war machine

Updated April 23, 2024 1:47 pm ET


The U.S. is drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system, arming Washington’s top envoy with diplomatic leverage that officials hope will stop Beijing’s commercial support of Russia’s military production, according to people familiar with the matter.
But as Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Beijing on Tuesday, the question is whether even the threat of the U.S. using one of its most potent tools of financial coercion can put a dent in complex and burgeoning trade between Beijing and Moscow that has allowed the Kremlin to rebuild a military badly mauled by more than two years of fighting in Ukraine.

...


Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, acknowledged China’s refusal to sell weapons to Russia during his meetings in Beijing last week. Germany and some other key European allies had been satisfied with that no-arms policy as enough.

“Now there’s an effort to adjust that in part because of the scale of Chinese support,” a former senior U.S. national security official said. “The hope is that we get the Europeans to read China the riot act.”
Scholz hinted at a change in policy after his meetings, though when pressed by reporters, he declined to elaborate. “The question of dual-use should not be ignored either,” he said.
The U.S. believes that Europe’s financial and trade ties with China means it has more diplomatic sway than Washington over Beijing.
“There is underused leverage by the West, especially given the dollar and euro dominance in the financial system,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at CSIS and one of the chief authors of its recent report. “That could be one promising avenue to deal with the problem.”

https://www.cips.com.cn/en/index/index.html


Operation Hours: 5x24h+4h
Annual Business Volume (2023): 123 Trillion
System Availability: 99.999%




average daily volume
by march, 2024
去年4月到今年2月
4-- 415.3
5-- 476.5
6-- 532
7-- 517.9
8-- 523.3
9-- 500.3
10-- 399.2 （？？？？？）
11-- 586.8
12-- 595.2
1-- 666.8
2-- 689.4 （相对于去年4月增66%）


4 / 16 / 2024
Number of Transactions 35,529
Amount of Business RMB 705.88 Billion

continuing from the previous

CIPS Worldwide Participants
Direct Participants 140

Indirect Participants 1371



direct region indirect
101 asia 1018 (including 563 from China)
5 oceania 20
6 africa 50
2 southAmerica 18
23 Europe 237
3 northAmerica 28
140 total 1371

https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/com ... mb-tracker

With more than 1,900 financial institutions now using the Renminbi (RMB) for payments with China and Hong Kong, the internationalisation of RMB carries great strategic significance for banks and FIs.

meiyoumajia 写了： 2024年 4月 24日 14:04 https://www.cips.com.cn/en/index/index.html


4 / 16 / 2024
Number of Transactions 35,529
Amount of Business RMB 705.88 Billion

https://www.swift.com/about-us/discover ... ent-centre
dec., 2022::::::
AmericasAndUK -AsiaPacific --EuropeAndMiddleEastAndAfrica ---GrandTotal
Total Messages 566,670,621 -91,817,987 --861,970,860 ---1,520,459,468
YTD Average Daily Messages 2,255,854 -365,517 --3,431,413 ---6,052,785
Weight 37.3% -6.0% --56.7% ---100.0%

可能由于第2贴文中所述的本质区别，而无法得知swift涉及的金额？

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zennonkapr ... 66190048bb
And of course, SWIFT serves as the primary interbank messaging service for financial institutions globally. It works with 11,000 member institutions and facilitates $150 trillion in transactions per year.

2023年金额量大致对比
swift/cips：150/(123/7.2)=8.8

人民币在两个系统“整合”后所占的大致份额

(150*3.1%+123/7.2)/(150+123/7.2) = 13%
(150*4.2%+123/7.2)/(150+123/7.2) = 14%
(150*4.69%+123/7.2)/(150+123/7.2) = 14.4%

对汇率的敏感性
(150*4.69%+123/7.3)/(150+123/7.3) = 14.3%
(150*4.69%+123/7)/(150+123/7) = 14.7%


因此，大约是14%上下
与中国在全球贸易量中所占比接近

150*4.69%/(150*4.69%+123/7.2）= 29%

用人民币的贸易中约30%的金额量是通过swift

meiyoumajia 写了： 2024年 4月 24日 15:18 人民币在两个系统“整合”后所占的大致份额

(150*3.1%+123/7.2)/(150+123/7.2) = 13%
(150*4.2%+123/7.2)/(150+123/7.2) = 14%
(150*4.69%+123/7.2)/(150+123/7.2) = 14.4%

美元：150*47%/(150+123/7.2) = 42%
欧元：150*22%/(150+123/7.2) = 20%
中元：(150*4.69%+123/7.2)/(150+123/7.2) = 14.4%
英镑：150*6.5%/(150+123/7.2) = 5.8%

俄罗斯
2023年全年贸易额的美元值对中元值对应的“汇率比”
(169,159,415*10^4)/(240,111,548*10^3) = 7.045


用人民币的 占比情况：
cips中：90%*169,159,415*10^4/10^12/123 = 1.24%
“合并体”中：90%*240,111,548*10^3/10^12/(150+123/7.2) = 0.129%




cips中：55%*169,159,415*10^4/10^12/123 = 0.756%
“合并体”中：55%*240,111,548*10^3/10^12/(150+123/7.2) = 0.0790%



http://guangzhou.customs.gov.cn/customs ... index.html
169,159,415万(中元)

http://guangzhou.customs.gov.cn/customs ... index.html
240,111,548千(美元)
其中进口：129,139,097
129,139,097/240,111,548 = 53.7%

人民币支付应该和出口退税挂钩。

用人民币做交易会在中国以外的两国之间进行。比如，俄罗斯就在谈判中要求印度以中元交付购买石油的费用，而很不愿意接受（过多的难以用掉的）印度卢比。

SWIFT 只是个报文系统，不是清算系统，没那么可怕。

多年前的昆仑银行，就是完全脱离了SWIFT。

另外，每年中国民间的地下灰色的外汇汇兑市场规模，就是大约2000多亿人民币，这还是各种逃避监管的结果。

俄罗斯不高兴就甩人民币吧，鳖国汇率就撑不住了
你不给我武器弹药，我就狂甩人民币。
这边得罪了美帝不能用美元结算，那边人民币动不动
就被人敲打，两头加鸡了。

网上的那个谣传可比这个早不少




还有这个

The Russian National Wealth Fund is reported to no longer hold euros, with only yuan, gold, and rubles remaining, as stated by the Ministry of Finance.

The decision to abandon the dollar was made in 2021. As of the end of 2023, the total volume of the National Wealth Fund amounted to 11.965 trillion rubles (approximately $135.3 billion).

The National Wealth Fund of Russia is a reserve fund utilized to cover the federal budget deficit and as a component of the pension system. The fund is formed from Russia's oil and gas revenues and is unofficially referred to as "kubyshka," which translates to a money-saving container or piggy bank.