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YouHi 写了： 2024年 11月 3日 01:56 Other key findings in Iowa Poll:

Independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, 57% to 29%

Senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%

97% of Dems support Harris, while only 89% of Republicans support Trump

目测川脯要完。

YouHi 写了： 2024年 11月 3日 01:48 The Selzer poll is generally considered the gold standard in polling. Dr. Selzer and her firm only tackle Iowa-level races, but it's the one poll that doesn't miss: she predicted Obama's caucus win in 2008, and Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020 (again, in Iowa) and was within 2% of the final margins - so even when people where saying that Biden was comfortably leading Trump, Seltzer's data was actually showing Trump winning Iowa by +7 or so (which meant the rest of the race in swing states was going to be much tighter, which it ended up being). This is the one poll that continued to output good quality results, even in the face of Trumpism and during the COVID years. So them saying that Harris would win *Iowa* is absolutely bonkers. If they're as correct as they usually are, then Harris is about to walk out of there with over 350 electoral votes.

长廊夜话 写了： 2024年 11月 3日 06:39 川普这次会输得很惨。
这个民调是最准的，是一个大学女教授做的，并且过去很多年每次都是准的，她只做当地的民调，不做全国的，没有外国势力的干涉。

赖美豪中 写了： 2024年 11月 3日 07:58 过去就很不准，不用看远古的，最近就有错的
2018 Iowa Governor - Reynolds vs. Hubbell
pollster date sample moe
Hubbell (D)
Reynolds (R)
*
spread
Final Results
— — — 47.4 50.4
Reynolds
+3.0
RCP Average
10/8 - 11/2 — — 45.0 44.3
Hubbell
+0.7
Des Moines Register
10/30 - 11/2 801 LV 3.5 46 44
Hubbell
+2
Emerson
10/29 - 11/1 1462 LV 2.7 45 49
Reynolds
+4
Univ. of Iowa
10/8 - 10/22 496 LV 4.5 44 40
Hubbell
+4

长廊夜话 写了： 2024年 11月 3日 08:50 总统选举的预测没有错过一次。

ferrygao 写了： 2024年 11月 3日 07:39 胖猪要去捡肥皂了哦