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Very few investors sold at the top. Most held on too long or sold during the decline.

Anecdotal and research-based estimates suggest:

Less than 10% of investors likely exited near the top (within weeks or a few months).

The majority stayed invested well into the bear market, often selling near the bottom out of panic.

Summary:
Only a small minority — likely less than 10% — of investors managed to exit or reduce exposure near the top of the 2000 stock market peak. Most remained invested as the market declined over the next two years.

Very few investors—or probably <5%—actually sold at or near the March 2000 peak.

Despite the steep drop in tech stocks, most retail investors held steady or even bought more during early declines.

The common narrative of a flood of investors fleeing the top is not supported by data; the real money didn’t leave until much later, often well into the bear market.

2008-2009
Key Takeaways
Only a few percent of investors exited around the peak or in the worst month (Oct 2008).

The bulk of outflows happened after significant declines, not exactly at the top.

Most investors remained invested or rebalanced, rather than fleeing completely.

大跌开始一点逃了就行，亏一点不要紧

大跌时回踩踏吗

In short, during the 2007–2008 crisis, roughly 3–4% of equity fund assets were withdrawn, and 2–5% of individual retirement investors fully exited stocks.

2008年金融危机，散户一共从股市只取出5%不到的现金。所以崩盘跟散户是否fully invested没关系。崩盘是华尔街大鳄人为制造的，而不是散户取现相互践踏造成的

Equity Mutual Fund Outflows
October 2008 (height of panic): equity mutual fund investors redeemed under 2% of assets (~$87 billion out of ~$5 trillion)

From October 2007 to February 2009, total outflows from stock funds amounted to about 3.6% of assets

Although outflows were elevated, they remained modest — typically just a few percent of total assets, and redemption spikes were short-lived .

Retirement & 401(k) Participant Behavior
In 2008:

16% of Vanguard 401(k) participants made asset allocation changes, but only about 4% of assets were moved from equities to fixed income


~2% of participants fully exited equities by moving completely to cash .

Consistent with broader studies, over 90% of investors stayed the course, not switching to cash en masse
bogleheads.org
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I always keep 15% -20% cash

gooder 写了： 2025年 7月 3日 21:03 I always keep 15% -20% cash

when the market drops to low enough, I buy in and sell calls at certain strike price. SO, I constantly has cash

In 2008, SPY dropped 37%. Everyone will lose money, except few smart guys who want to get out of the market.

逃顶的很少，少数几个逃了的保住了大头，有的都是 billionaire。

小牛前老板 mark cuban当时手握大把yahoo股票，但被限售，但还是想办法搞了个collar策略对冲风险，保住了2billion财产

天天想着逃顶的都是脑子瓦塔的