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#1 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 20日 22:56
逍遥自由

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【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms And Short Short Squeeze Tops】

https://stockpriceforecast.substack.com ... s-are-long

In other words, one should buy at or near the exhaustion bottom price of bear raids and short the exhaustion peak of short squeezes.

Those extreme price levels are indeed the safest and most profitable. Being safest and at the same time most profitable may seem to defy the common sense that risk goes with reward. But it is in fact true, even if it seems to defy common sense.

All that is well and good, but then how do you know the price is under bear raid or short squeeze?

Indeed, for the great majority of traders and investors, they do not know. But the color bars shown in the video that accompanies this article is the key.

If the color bar is totally green, the stock price is at a [natural] bottom. Likewise, if it is totally red, the price is at a [natural] peak. However, big players can push price below its natural bottom. When that happens, the price becomes over-sold.

Similarly, after price has reached a [natural] peak, as shown by the color bar being totally red, big money can push its price higher, and the price then becomes over-bought.

Thus, we can readily tell if price is oversold or overbought simply by glancing at the color bar. Thereafter, we only need to use very short-term and tight trend lines (no need to really draw them, but one can do it mentally) that will track when downtrend (in oversold situation) breaks or reverses, which would be the buy signal.

Drawing mentally these very tight and short-term uptrend lines once a stock price is in overbought phase will enable us to detect the point of trend reversal, and that would be a sell/short signal.

Since the above methods enable to buy very close to the bear-raid bottom price and short very close to the short-squeeze peak, you are capturing price extremes both on the downside and the upside. These price levels have to be, and indeed are, the price levels where risk becomes lowest and profit potential becomes largest.

Using the above techniques, you are placing the best trades that you can possibly enter. This is fully utilizing the power of the U/D color bars.

The U/D color bars you see here are what makes stock trading extremely easy, simple, efficient and profitable and at minimum risk.

The above principles are not only theoretically correct but empirically proven. The biggest, most powerful and yet most unpredictable factor in financial markets, is artificial price intervention. Bear raids and short squeezes being the most common. Inexperienced investors and traders often get shaken out at the new artificial bear-raid bottom by selling and at the new artificial short-squeeze peak by short-covering or even buying on the false breakout. The color bars will reveal the truth and prevent you from making those worst mistakes, and do the opposite.

Despite the great benefits of the color bars, one should still always adhere to sound basic principles, such as diversification and only risk capital that one can afford to lose.

DISCLAIMER: The color bars and related content herein are for informational purposes only. They are not, and not meant to be, specific recommendations to buy or sell any stock or financial instrument. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and viewers and readers should always consult qualified investment professionals before they invest or trade, and even then only use risk capital. Since one cannot read minds, one cannot predict the degree and duration of bear raids and short squeezes. Thus even picking extreme bottoms and peaks may require diversification with respect to time, on top of diversification with respect to different stocks. Always reserve ample cash in advance so as to be able to capture price extremes, as they arise. Best wishes.

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#2 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 20日 23:11
wyseman

这是瞎扯淡吧。


#3 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 00:03
逍遥自由
wyseman 写了: 2025年 9月 20日 23:11

这是瞎扯淡吧。

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你扣帽子有理由就给。

如非因嫉妒捣蛋而抹黑。

要证明诚意,那就反着做,

卖空砸价谷底,买挤空高峰。

.

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#4 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 01:13
HBBH

理论上正确, 能告诉 哪天可以short OKLO 和 RGTI, 这两个下次季报前应该有机会short。


#5 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 01:32
逍遥自由
HBBH 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 01:13

理论上正确, 能告诉 哪天可以short OKLO 和 RGTI, 这两个下次季报前应该有机会short。

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OKLO 和 RGTI 昨天(20250919) 均已经历超买,短期看跌:

从昨天的挤空高峰价算,OKLO 短期须下跌约21%或更多才达下个谷底。

从昨天的挤空高峰价算,RGTI 短期须下跌约23%或更多才达下个谷底。

.

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#6 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 02:04
HouseMD
逍遥自由 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 00:03

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你扣帽子有理由就给。

如非因嫉妒捣蛋而抹黑。

要证明诚意,那就反着做,

卖空砸价谷底,买挤空高峰。

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你说的反着做,其实是追涨杀跌。
杀跌我看就算了,但是美股追涨是很容易赚钱的。


#7 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 03:04
逍遥自由
HouseMD 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 02:04

你说的反着做,其实是追涨杀跌。
杀跌我看就算了,但是美股追涨是很容易赚钱的。

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那是因为花街挤空时一般都是尽量凶猛。

不这么做,吓唬不了比较精明的卖空散户。

散户在挤空开始时就做多,不久留可以获利。

更稳,更安全,更暴利则须在挤空的高峰卖空。

.

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#8 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 04:44
HouseMD
逍遥自由 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 03:04

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那是因为花街挤空时一般都是尽量凶猛。

不这么做,吓唬不了比较精明的卖空散户。

散户在挤空开始时就做多,不久留可以获利。

更稳,更安全,更暴利则须在挤空的高峰卖空。

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lol 除非有内幕,否则我是没见过有人美股做空持续赚大钱的,你牛逼你可以试试,然后晒单给我们看。


#9 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 10:23
逍遥自由
HouseMD 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 04:44

lol 除非有内幕,否则我是没见过有人美股做空持续赚大钱的,你牛逼你可以试试,然后晒单给我们看。

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口气很酸啊。不过无所谓,老中对老中多是如此。早已习惯了。

不过我回答你是诚意的。你当然可以买高卖更高,我是支持的。

因为这是你的自由,并且的确 “Buy On Breakout” 有赚钱的。

真正高手对所有的参与着,都是欢迎的,绝不会在乎他们的立场。

首先,他们的参与,增加了流动性。即使是捣蛋破坏也是有益的。

论捣蛋有谁力度能超花街?微不足道!何况花街的捣蛋可以利用。

花街挤空或砸价是好事。不但欢迎,还须鼓励,越极端机会越佳。

做法我在之前的许多贴已详细介绍和说明了。有兴趣的可以去读。

成绩如何?看预测是否准确就知道了。事前都给了精准参考价位。

我发帖的目的是帮也许需要点指导的人,绝非是招引嫉妒好事者。

我对吵架没兴趣且是厌恶。对错不该是看未来股价的起跌和幅度?

多数人十岁后就已定型一辈子。去说服不想改变的人。毫无意义。

我的贴纯粹是For Information Only。支持反对无动于衷都可以。

股版每天有许多[大概率]错的贴,我没评论。概率再大 !=100%。

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#10 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 10:33
caswellave

对于散户来说,要做大概率成功的事情。判断顶部和底部,有点难


#12 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 14:47
逍遥自由
caswellave 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 10:33

对于散户来说,要做大概率成功的事情。判断顶部和底部,有点难

.

肯定难,并且永远不轻易,这是人为因素造成的。

花街必须必然把股价朝对多数散户不利的方向推进。

不这么捣蛋,就不可能轻松暴利,更不可能优化暴利。

散户会思考也会变,但花街对散户仓位价位有实时统计。

任何时候,花街该如何对散户新情况优化收割是毫无困难。

所以散户想相对安全的获暴利,也至少每天须预测更新一次。

.

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#13 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 16:06
cangyoujiacuo
逍遥自由 写了: 2025年 9月 20日 22:56

.

【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms And Short Short Squeeze Tops】

https://stockpriceforecast.substack.com ... s-are-long

In other words, one should buy at or near the exhaustion bottom price of bear raids and short the exhaustion peak of short squeezes.

Those extreme price levels are indeed the safest and most profitable. Being safest and at the same time most profitable may seem to defy the common sense that risk goes with reward. But it is in fact true, even if it seems to defy common sense.

All that is well and good, but then how do you know the price is under bear raid or short squeeze?

Indeed, for the great majority of traders and investors, they do not know. But the color bars shown in the video that accompanies this article is the key.

If the color bar is totally green, the stock price is at a [natural] bottom. Likewise, if it is totally red, the price is at a [natural] peak. However, big players can push price below its natural bottom. When that happens, the price becomes over-sold.

Similarly, after price has reached a [natural] peak, as shown by the color bar being totally red, big money can push its price higher, and the price then becomes over-bought.

Thus, we can readily tell if price is oversold or overbought simply by glancing at the color bar. Thereafter, we only need to use very short-term and tight trend lines (no need to really draw them, but one can do it mentally) that will track when downtrend (in oversold situation) breaks or reverses, which would be the buy signal.

Drawing mentally these very tight and short-term uptrend lines once a stock price is in overbought phase will enable us to detect the point of trend reversal, and that would be a sell/short signal.

Since the above methods enable to buy very close to the bear-raid bottom price and short very close to the short-squeeze peak, you are capturing price extremes both on the downside and the upside. These price levels have to be, and indeed are, the price levels where risk becomes lowest and profit potential becomes largest.

Using the above techniques, you are placing the best trades that you can possibly enter. This is fully utilizing the power of the U/D color bars.

The U/D color bars you see here are what makes stock trading extremely easy, simple, efficient and profitable and at minimum risk.

The above principles are not only theoretically correct but empirically proven. The biggest, most powerful and yet most unpredictable factor in financial markets, is artificial price intervention. Bear raids and short squeezes being the most common. Inexperienced investors and traders often get shaken out at the new artificial bear-raid bottom by selling and at the new artificial short-squeeze peak by short-covering or even buying on the false breakout. The color bars will reveal the truth and prevent you from making those worst mistakes, and do the opposite.

Despite the great benefits of the color bars, one should still always adhere to sound basic principles, such as diversification and only risk capital that one can afford to lose.

DISCLAIMER: The color bars and related content herein are for informational purposes only. They are not, and not meant to be, specific recommendations to buy or sell any stock or financial instrument. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and viewers and readers should always consult qualified investment professionals before they invest or trade, and even then only use risk capital. Since one cannot read minds, one cannot predict the degree and duration of bear raids and short squeezes. Thus even picking extreme bottoms and peaks may require diversification with respect to time, on top of diversification with respect to different stocks. Always reserve ample cash in advance so as to be able to capture price extremes, as they arise. Best wishes.

.

这俩词儿挺好,增强了战场态势感知功能,不过老外就是爱不停地发明新词儿,把简单问题复杂化。说穿了,操作层面,大概就两种方法:抄底摸顶 vs 追涨杀跌。

抄底摸顶盈亏比好,赚得多,概率小,
追涨杀跌盈亏比差,赚得少,概率大。

当然,大家都把自己定义为投资者,时刻在计算什么时候买,什么时候抛,行为上实在有点搞笑,在我看来,不hold拿股息的,都是妥妥的投机客。


#14 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 16:25
逍遥自由
cangyoujiacuo 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 16:06

这俩词儿挺好,增强了战场态势感知功能,不过老外就是爱不停地发明新词儿,把简单问题复杂化。说穿了,操作层面,大概就两种方法:抄底摸顶 vs 追涨杀跌。

抄底摸顶盈亏比好,赚得多,概率小,
追涨杀跌盈亏比差,赚得少,概率大。

当然,大家都把自己定义为投资者,时刻在计算什么时候买,什么时候抛,行为上实在有点搞笑,在我看来,不hold拿股息的,都是妥妥的投机客。

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西方文化不排斥投机,且特别佩服投机能力强的个体户。

有些能力强的散户,以标榜自己为“Professional Speculator”为荣。

因为西方社会佩服个人能力,尤其是那些个人能打败强大机构集团的。

以下视频观众的评论,暴露观众对财阀,机构和政府的不信任和敌意。

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#15 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 17:50
HBBH

如果还要翻倍怎么办?

逍遥自由 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 01:32

.

OKLO 和 RGTI 昨天(20250919) 均已经历超买,短期看跌:

从昨天的挤空高峰价算,OKLO 短期须下跌约21%或更多才达下个谷底。

从昨天的挤空高峰价算,RGTI 短期须下跌约23%或更多才达下个谷底。

.

.


#16 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 21日 21:59
逍遥自由
HBBH 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 17:50

如果还要翻倍怎么办?

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每个股票以及相关期权的交易量是有限的,波动也是有限的。

作为提款机,不同股票能提供的提款额有其上限。

所以资金变大了,必然被迫分散风险。

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#17 Re: 【The Most Profitable Trades Are Long Bear Raid Bottoms 。。。】

发表于 : 2025年 9月 26日 00:53
逍遥自由
逍遥自由 写了: 2025年 9月 21日 01:32

.

OKLO 和 RGTI 昨天(20250919) 均已经历超买,短期看跌:

从昨天的挤空高峰价算,OKLO 短期须下跌约21%或更多才达下个谷底。

从昨天的挤空高峰价算,RGTI 短期须下跌约23%或更多才达下个谷底。

.

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OKLO 已经跌的很不错。之前的超买高峰是$144.49

今天(20250925) OKLO 日内 最低 是 110.14

Day's Range 110.14 - 122.48

所以从超买高峰144.49下跌至110.14,已跌了 $34+

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OKLO/

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