#1 最近有两个ipo，其中一个是知名野鸡大学
发表于 ： 2025年 10月 3日 11:51
凤凰大学，你们高不高
凤凰大学，你们高不高
这个不是早就上市了，Apollo。09年股价89，2011年开始经营状况每况愈下，2017年退市了，当时一股10块
重新上市，而且只发行4M股，超级奇怪
Here’s a structured analysis of the planned University of Phoenix (Phoenix Education Partners / parent) IPO, based on publicly reported information as of late 2025 — with risks, opportunities, and key open questions. If you like, I can also run a valuation sensitivity or compare it to peers.
Overview & Context
The entity behind the IPO is Phoenix Education Partners, formerly known (in filings) as AP VIII Queso Holdings LP, which owns and operates the University of Phoenix as its primary asset.
Reuters
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Bloomberg Law
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The company filed an S-1 / registration to raise capital in an IPO in August 2025.
Reuters
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Bloomberg Law
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The school was previously taken private in 2017 in a deal valuing Apollo Education Group (then its public parent) at around $1.1 billion, backed by Apollo Global and the Vistria Group.
AInvest
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Reuters
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Bloomberg
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Earlier, Phoenix had been in negotiations to be acquired by the University of Idaho (for around $550–$685 million), but those talks broke down in mid-2025.
AInvest
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boisedev.com
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Bloomberg Law
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The IPO aims for a valuation in the $1.5 to $1.7 billion range (in some reports), though in other reports a lower valuation (~$1.2 billion) is cited.
Reuters
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Inside Higher Ed
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AInvest
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The proposed share offering is about 4.25 million shares, priced in the range $31 to $33 per share, implying gross proceeds of ~$140 million.
Reuters
The IPO will be on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker PXED.
AInvest
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Reuters
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Reuters
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Apollo and Vistria are expected to be sellers in the offering (i.e. secondary share sales). Apollo will likely retain majority voting control even post-IPO.
Reuters
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Reuters
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Reported Financials & Business Metrics
From disclosures in media and filings:
For the nine months ending May 31, 2025, Phoenix Education reported $118 million net income on $750 million revenue, up from $105 million on $710 million a year prior.
Reuters
In some reports, the full-year revenue run-rate is ~ $990 million (or “nearly $1 billion”) for the 12 months ended May 31, 2025.
Bloomberg Law
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Renaissance Capital
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AInvest
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The company claims it offers 72 degree-granting programs and 33 non-degree certificate programs.
Bloomberg Law
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Reuters
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Renaissance Capital
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In IPO marketing materials, there is mention of focusing on working adults as target students, leveraging online and hybrid models, and using digital tools (e.g., “Career Navigator” platforms) to improve outcomes.
AInvest
The firm is heavily dependent on students receiving federal financial aid, which is typical in the for-profit higher education sector.
AInvest
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Reuters
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Strengths & Opportunities
Brand awareness and scale
The University of Phoenix has long name recognition in U.S. higher education, especially among working adult learners, which may help in marketing and student recruitment (if they can manage reputational challenges).
Operating leverage in online delivery
As much of their delivery is already online or hybrid, the incremental cost of adding additional students (especially via digital channels) may scale more efficiently than fully brick-and-mortar universities.
Growing demand for adult/upskilling education
Trends in lifelong learning, reskilling, and workforce-driven credentials may favor institutions that can flexibly adapt programs to labor market needs. If Phoenix can align its offerings to employer demands, that could drive differentiated value.
Upside if regulatory risk softens
If federal regulatory pressures on for-profit education loosen, or if Phoenix can successfully demonstrate compliance and accountability, investor sentiment might become more favorable.
Edge via technological enhancements
Their emphasis on data-driven student support (e.g. career guidance, analytics) might help in student retention, outcomes, and ultimately reputation — all of which matter in this sector heavily scrutinized on outcomes.
Risks & Challenges
Regulatory & compliance risk
The for-profit education sector has historically been subject to intense regulatory scrutiny (e.g. gainful employment rules, borrower defense, accreditation). Any unfavorable rule changes or enforcement actions could materially affect operations and reputation.
Past conduct (e.g. aggressive marketing, misleading claims) has exposed the University of Phoenix to lawsuits, settlements, and regulatory actions.
The Chronicle of Higher Education
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highereducationinquirer.org
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Wikipedia
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Reputational issues and student outcomes
The institution has a troubled reputation from historical practices (e.g. allegations of deceptive marketing) and low graduation rates. Overcoming this legacy will be hard, especially under public market scrutiny.
AInvest
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highereducationinquirer.org
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The Chronicle of Higher Education
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If student default rates, debt burdens, or negative borrower defense claims persist, these could generate liabilities or reputational damage.
Enrollment headwinds
For-profit colleges in the U.S. have broadly seen declining student headcounts over the past decade. Phoenix must arrest or reverse enrollment decline for growth.
Dependence on federal financial aid
Because many students rely on Pell Grants and federal student loans, changes in federal funding rules or eligibility could severely impact revenue.
Secondary market discount / valuation skepticism
Investors may deeply discount future cash flows due to uncertainty about regulatory risk and outcome metrics (graduation, job placement). Volatility may be high post-IPO.
Control structure / governance concerns
Apollo/Vistria retaining majority control may limit minority investors’ voice or confidence. There may also be conflicts of interest or lack of full transparency typical in newly spun-off controlled IPOs.
Valuation & Pricing Considerations
The pricing range of $31–33 per share for 4.25 million shares suggests gross proceeds around $130–140 million.
Reuters
To reach a valuation of ~$1.5–1.7 billion, the implied valuation multiples on revenue or earnings would have to be relatively aggressive, given the risks (especially given modest net income relative to scale).
If we take the stated net income of ~$118 million (over 9 months) and extrapolate to a full year (say ~$150 million), then a $1.5 billion valuation implies a P/E of 10×, which is not extreme per se, but in light of the sector risk, may feel optimistic.
A more conservative valuation range (~$1.2 billion) has also been floated.
Reuters
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The ability to grow margins, control costs, maintain or expand enrollment, and manage regulatory risk will be critical to justify valuation expansion.
Key Open Questions & Red Flags to Watch
How credible are their projections for student growth, retention, and placement?
The IPO prospectus will need to clearly substantiate assumptions about how they will attract and retain students, especially in a competitive market.
What is the magnitude of potential legal & contingent liabilities?
Past borrower defense claims, regulatory fines, or class actions could impose significant hidden liabilities. How they handle or reserve for these matters will be important.
What is the debt structure and capital needs?
The IPO may raise capital, but will that be enough to fund expansion, technology investment, marketing, or debt obligations? What is the balance sheet structure?
How effective is governance & minority shareholder protection?
With majority voting control retained by Apollo/Vistria, will minority investors be adequately protected? Are there dual-class shares or other structures?
Regulatory environment trajectory
Federal policy (e.g., oversight of gainful employment, Title IV funding, Department of Education rule changes) could significantly alter profitability or eligibility.
Execution risk in transitioning or rebranding
Moving from private to public market brings new scrutiny, quarterly earnings pressure, and expectations. Also, cleaning up reputation and aligning operational practices will be a challenge.
Bottom Line & Investment View (Provisional)
The IPO of Phoenix Education Partners (i.e. University of Phoenix) is a bold move back into the public markets for an institution with a complex, controversial past. The offering is ambitious: it assumes that the company can overcome its reputation, manage regulatory risks, and scale its operations profitably.
If everything goes well (enrollment growth, favorable regulation, margin expansion, reputational repair), the IPO could provide a good return for early investors. But the margin for error is thin. In many respects, this is a high-risk / high-uncertainty bet. For more risk-averse investors, the combination of regulatory, reputational, and execution risks may give pause.
If you like, I can build a DCF or sensitivity model for this IPO to show how changes in enrollment, margins or discount rates affect implied valuation. Do you want me to do that?
最近外国留学生都不来美国了。很多美国大学破产。这种野鸡网络大学更加够呛。
revenue还可以啊，750M, 估值只有1.2b
关键看是否碰瓷AI，如果整点 AI 课程，甚至AI教授授课的话，估计市值立马千亿