新未名空间

Near-term expectations for the policy rate had moved lower in response to weaker-than-expected employment data and the apparent rise in downside employment risks. Almost all respondents to the Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, and around half expected an additional cut at the October meeting. The vast majority of survey respondents expected at least two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with around half expecting three cuts over that time. Respondents' expectations for 2027 and beyond were unchanged, implying that revisions to respondents' near-term expectations reflected an anticipation of a faster return of the federal funds rate to its longer-run level than previously expected. Market-based measures of policy rate expectations were broadly consistent with responses to the Desk survey, reflecting about three 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary ... 250917.htm

就业太差，FED急了。

The deputy manager concluded by discussing the trajectory of the balance sheet. If balance sheet runoff were to continue at the current pace, the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio was expected to decline to just over $6 trillion by the end of March, with Federal Reserve notes growing at a gradual pace, the TGA fluctuating around current levels, and usage of the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility remaining very low except on quarter-end dates. As a result, the deputy manager expected reserves to be close to the $2.8 trillion range by the end of the first quarter of next year if runoff were to continue at the current pace.
FED会继续抛售国债，到明年一季度结束，美联储手头会有2.8万亿美元的现金。
股市在继续暴涨，FED显然认为市场CASH太多，有必要继续缩表。

Foreign GDP growth slowed markedly in the second quarter, as the transitory boost due to the front-loading of U.S. imports earlier in the year faded. Canadian economic activity contracted significantly, as exports of price-sensitive industrial supplies fell sharply in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. Economic growth in Mexico and parts of Asia was supported by strong demand for high-tech products.
里面提到加拿大经济崩盘了，但是墨西哥和亚洲经济还行。

Crocodile 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 14:09

Near-term expectations for the policy rate had moved lower in response to weaker-than-expected employment data and the apparent rise in downside employment risks. Almost all respondents to the Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, and around half expected an additional cut at the October meeting. The vast majority of survey respondents expected at least two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with around half expecting three cuts over that time. Respondents' expectations for 2027 and beyond were unchanged, implying that revisions to respondents' near-term expectations reflected an anticipation of a faster return of the federal funds rate to its longer-run level than previously expected. Market-based measures of policy rate expectations were broadly consistent with responses to the Desk survey, reflecting about three 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary ... 250917.htm

就业太差，FED急了。

CRCL大利好？

GreatCanada 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 14:30

CRCL大利好？

里面没有提到稳定币啊，为啥CRCL大利好?

CRCL 盈利靠国债利息，降息会利好？还大？

GreatCanada 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 14:30

CRCL大利好？

消息出来，股市没啥反应啊？
不过我认为，这降息超过预期，算利好。

Crocodile 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 14:31

里面没有提到稳定币啊，为啥CRCL大利好?

黄金肯定要上爆了，黄金上爆比特币肯定上爆，CRCL也要上爆吧

管经济的都是煞笔么，你得顺应科技潮流，现在处于AI革命的时刻，你就算把米刀贬成废纸，越来越多的工作也回不来了。

另外，还在持续缩表，市场最终还是要面对这个炸弹

7H12$F+vu 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 14:44

管经济的都是煞笔么，你得顺应科技潮流，现在处于AI革命的时刻，你就算把米刀贬成废纸，越来越多的工作也回不来了。

另外，还在持续缩表，市场最终还是要面对这个炸弹

股市在大涨啊，市场上钱明显太多。

Crocodile 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 14:46

股市在大涨啊，市场上钱明显太多。

是因为他们只会贬米刀，不懂科技趋势

为什么当官掌权的全是煞笔

7H12$F+vu 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 14:49

是因为他们只会贬米刀，不懂科技趋势

为什么当官掌权的全是煞笔

被你说着了，股市开跌，还好没跌多少。

中性利率3%，空间足够降

不是利率的问题，而是科技发展的趋势。

还有就是分配不公，你给资本给富人再怎么减税，他也不会trickle down。他只会根据销售情况来裁员。

你把利率降到负数，你把米刀贬成废纸，也不解决问题。

7H12$F+vu 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 15:17

不是利率的问题，而是科技发展的趋势。

还有就是分配不公，你给资本给富人再怎么减税，他也不会trickle down。他只会根据销售情况来裁员。

你把利率降到负数，你把米刀贬成废纸，也不解决问题。

这个就是类似改革的阵痛期，你当总统有解决办法吗？ubi也许能缓解一点点，只能慢慢过去，中间经历的人是不容易，时代的一粒沙都如巨山。

7H12$F+vu 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 15:17

不是利率的问题，而是科技发展的趋势。

还有就是分配不公，你给资本给富人再怎么减税，他也不会trickle down。他只会根据销售情况来裁员。

你把利率降到负数，你把米刀贬成废纸，也不解决问题。

房贷，车贷负担轻，对老百姓当然有用

手上还有亏废的RKT, 有机会回本儿吗？

Therespne’sm 写了： 2025年 10月 8日 17:28

手上还有亏废的RKT, 有机会回本儿吗？

RKT看周期很长，得自己多留心了。