巴匪应该投资OpenAI造一个虚拟巴匪来继承他

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noktard楼主
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#1 巴匪应该投资OpenAI造一个虚拟巴匪来继承他

帖子 noktard楼主 »

1. What “Virtual Buffett” would actually need
To behave like Buffett, you’d need three pillars:
Data: Decades of Berkshire filings, shareholder letters, interviews, and trade history.
Framework: His mental models — how he thinks about moats, intrinsic value, opportunity cost, and temperament.
Judgment under uncertainty: Knowing when not to act (Buffett’s underrated superpower).
AI could replicate (1) and (2) to some degree — but (3) is where most systems break down. Buffett’s discipline and psychological calibration — knowing when to wait for “fat pitches” — is difficult to encode algorithmically.

2. What’s already technically feasible
You could build a Buffett-trained model that:
Reads 60+ years of his letters, transcripts, and SEC filings.
Extracts patterns from his historical buy/sell behavior.
Evaluates companies using Buffett-style metrics (ROIC, FCF yield, debt levels, management integrity).
Uses natural-language reasoning to justify an investment like Buffett would.
That model could rank stocks Buffett might buy today — and even explain its reasoning in Buffett’s tone.

3. The catch: Buffett’s human edge
What’s hard to virtualize is patience and context:
Buffett’s decision to do nothing for years is as strategic as his decision to buy.
He reads people (CEOs, regulators, partners) — something data can’t capture well yet.
He adjusts for regime shifts (interest rates, innovation cycles) in ways that depend on intuition, not formulas.
So a virtual Buffett could analyze like Buffett, but might not behave like Buffett — it might be too active or too literal.

4. But as an investor-assistant? Extremely powerful
You could imagine a “BuffettBot” that:
Grades any public company from A to F in Buffett terms (“Would Warren buy this?”).
Generates intrinsic value estimates with margin-of-safety adjustments.
Flags when something violates Buffett’s rules (“too much debt,” “no moat,” “management untrustworthy”).
That kind of assistant could realistically help humans invest more like Buffett, even if it can’t fully be him.

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7H12$F+vu
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#2 Re: 巴匪应该投资OpenAI造一个虚拟巴匪来继承他

帖子 7H12$F+vu »

这种模型最大的问题就是,在training data上运行的很好,但一旦脱离training的范围,马上就很差

virtual巴匪肯定在巴匪过去的交易上表现很好,但一到现在真实的场景,马上就会把巴匪辛苦60年积累的几千亿败个精光

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