票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
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左也行，右也行，文明发帖就欢迎；粉也罢，黑也罢，互相尊重别谩骂。
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#2 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
James Carville makes midterms prediction after Trump bill passes
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville predicted Democrats would pick up 40 seats in the 2026 midterms after the GOP-led House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" this week.
Newsweek reached out to the NRCC for comment via email.
Trump has touted the bill's passage as a victory for Republicans, but Democrats believe backlash to the legislation will fuel losses for the GOP next November. They point to measures such as estimated cuts to healthcare spending and its impact on the national debt as potential questions Republicans representing competitive districts will have to answer ahead of the midterms. Historically, the party of the president does lose seats in the midterm.
Carville discussed how the bill could change the course of the midterms during an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper and Democratic strategist Paul Begala Thursday night, predicting it will lead to big gains for Democrats.
"Every Democrat, regardless of the ideology or their ethnicity or their regional—we can all rally around this. And we can run on this single issue all the way to 2026. And Paul is right, we're going to pick up more than 40 House seats, I can tell you," Carville said.
He said political anthropologists will view it as a "mass extinction event" for the GOP.
"A lot of them are going to be extinct when people go to the polls, voting for this. I promise you. This thing is like 25, 26 points underwater already, and we haven't even started our education program," he said.
Most recent polls suggest Democrats would have a slim lead over Republicans in terms of the generic ballot. Real Clear Politics gives Democrats an average lead of 2.3 points in their aggregate.
A recent Emerson College poll found that on the generic ballot, 43 percent of voters would lean toward Democrats, while 40 percent would vote for Republicans. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from June 24 to June 25, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Cygnal poll, on the other hand, showed Democrats and Republicans roughly tied at 47 percent. It surveyed 1,500 likely voters from June 3 to June 4, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points.
Republicans won the popular vote by 2.7 percentage points in 2022, which was considered an underwhelming performance despite former President Joe Biden's low approval rating at the time. They gained only nine seats. In 2018, Democrats won the midterms by 8.6 points, flipping 41 seats.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote in a post to X: "Every single swing seat Republican who voted to gut healthcare must be held accountable in the midterm election."
Representative Richard Hudson, a North Carolina Republican who chairs the NRCC, the GOP House campaign arm, wrote in an opinion piece for The Hill: "Every House Democrat voted against this bill. They rejected relief for working families. They rejected work requirements. They voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive taxpayer funded healthcare. They rejected common sense. And we will make sure each one of them has to answer for it."
Democrats and Republicans are trading jabs over the bill ahead of the midterms, which are still more than a year away.
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville predicted Democrats would pick up 40 seats in the 2026 midterms after the GOP-led House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" this week.
Newsweek reached out to the NRCC for comment via email.
Trump has touted the bill's passage as a victory for Republicans, but Democrats believe backlash to the legislation will fuel losses for the GOP next November. They point to measures such as estimated cuts to healthcare spending and its impact on the national debt as potential questions Republicans representing competitive districts will have to answer ahead of the midterms. Historically, the party of the president does lose seats in the midterm.
Carville discussed how the bill could change the course of the midterms during an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper and Democratic strategist Paul Begala Thursday night, predicting it will lead to big gains for Democrats.
"Every Democrat, regardless of the ideology or their ethnicity or their regional—we can all rally around this. And we can run on this single issue all the way to 2026. And Paul is right, we're going to pick up more than 40 House seats, I can tell you," Carville said.
He said political anthropologists will view it as a "mass extinction event" for the GOP.
"A lot of them are going to be extinct when people go to the polls, voting for this. I promise you. This thing is like 25, 26 points underwater already, and we haven't even started our education program," he said.
Most recent polls suggest Democrats would have a slim lead over Republicans in terms of the generic ballot. Real Clear Politics gives Democrats an average lead of 2.3 points in their aggregate.
A recent Emerson College poll found that on the generic ballot, 43 percent of voters would lean toward Democrats, while 40 percent would vote for Republicans. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from June 24 to June 25, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Cygnal poll, on the other hand, showed Democrats and Republicans roughly tied at 47 percent. It surveyed 1,500 likely voters from June 3 to June 4, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.51 percentage points.
Republicans won the popular vote by 2.7 percentage points in 2022, which was considered an underwhelming performance despite former President Joe Biden's low approval rating at the time. They gained only nine seats. In 2018, Democrats won the midterms by 8.6 points, flipping 41 seats.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote in a post to X: "Every single swing seat Republican who voted to gut healthcare must be held accountable in the midterm election."
Representative Richard Hudson, a North Carolina Republican who chairs the NRCC, the GOP House campaign arm, wrote in an opinion piece for The Hill: "Every House Democrat voted against this bill. They rejected relief for working families. They rejected work requirements. They voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive taxpayer funded healthcare. They rejected common sense. And we will make sure each one of them has to answer for it."
Democrats and Republicans are trading jabs over the bill ahead of the midterms, which are still more than a year away.
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raebapap
#3 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
一旦2000万非法移民被驱逐出境。我就等那旦了。
哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈
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子以礼从人其人不纳礼归子今子骂我我今不纳子自持祸归子身矣犹响应声影之随形终无免离慎勿为恶
#7 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
LOL，等着看
GOP造谣造到川粉自己都信了
非法移民虽然不能投票、确是乌泱泱的川粉、譬如纽约凤姐、一直在社交媒体上造谣传谣污蔑民主党
现在被老川收拾、拍手叫快
我有一个认识的人是纽约川粉，带一帮华人非法移民干地产，铁杆川粉、拜登在位天天造谣、好，现在生意也没得做了、他的走线华人也跑了、Medicaid 也没得骗了
GOP造谣造到川粉自己都信了
非法移民虽然不能投票、确是乌泱泱的川粉、譬如纽约凤姐、一直在社交媒体上造谣传谣污蔑民主党
现在被老川收拾、拍手叫快
我有一个认识的人是纽约川粉，带一帮华人非法移民干地产，铁杆川粉、拜登在位天天造谣、好，现在生意也没得做了、他的走线华人也跑了、Medicaid 也没得骗了
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上次由 alexwlt1024 在 2025年 7月 4日 23:56 修改。
原因： 未提供修改原因
原因： 未提供修改原因
#8 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
你个神经病，睁眼说瞎话。非移里有几个支持川普的不奇怪，但绝大多数怎么可能去支持川普？
lilyamao 写了： 昨天 23:26 LOL，等着看
GOP造谣造到川粉自己都信了
非法移民虽然不能投票、确是乌泱泱的川粉、譬如纽约凤姐、一直在社交媒体上造谣传谣污蔑民主党
现在被老川收拾、拍手叫快
我有一个认识的人是纽约川粉，带一帮华人非法移民干地产，铁杆川粉、拜登在位天天造谣、好，现在生意也没得做了、他的走线华人也跑了、Medicaid 也没得骗了
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#9 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
川粉也不要得意太早。马斯克的新党我看分的最多的是类似我这样，看不惯民主党的传统保守派，但是受不了川普这种胡作非为，反智，损害美国长期利益的做为的人。这些人本来会在猪党和maga党之间捏着鼻子投川普，现在不会再去投那些和党里被川普扶植的那帮小人马屁精。这些人分maga党的票恐怕比分民主党的票更多。
第三党想去选总统肯定没戏，但获得几个参议员和众议员的席位，在政坛上起到关键的制衡作用还是很有可能的。
第三党想去选总统肯定没戏，但获得几个参议员和众议员的席位，在政坛上起到关键的制衡作用还是很有可能的。
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#10 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
libertarian party 早已有之，从Ron Paul 开始尝试了30多年了，在美国政体下成不了气候。事实证明只有trump能扭转急剧的左倾，trump有很多不尽人意的地方，但是不论现在还是将来，和过去8年一样，捏着鼻子也得选GOP。
不能对GOP过于严苛，要想像一下如果现在是🐷党执政，会是什么样子。
不能对GOP过于严苛，要想像一下如果现在是🐷党执政，会是什么样子。
windy 写了： 今天 00:08 川粉也不要得意太早。马斯克的新党我看分的最多的是类似我这样，看不惯民主党的传统保守派，但是受不了川普这种胡作非为，反智，损害美国长期利益的做为的人。这些人本来会在猪党和maga党之间捏着鼻子投川普，现在不会再去投那些和党里被川普扶植的那帮小人马屁精。这些人分maga党的票恐怕比分民主党的票更多。
第三党想去选总统肯定没戏，但获得几个参议员和众议员的席位，在政坛上起到关键的制衡作用还是很有可能的。
#11 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
以前的第三党致力于总统的位子，或者在总统大选里搅局，这个是不切实际的做法。在美国的选举生态下，第三党在几十年内是不可能拿到总统的。搅局的角色对美国的政治生态根本影响不了。
现在的情况有所不同。两党在国会都是微弱多数。如果第三党能拿下几个席位，不管哪个党执政，都不能为所欲为了。以前参议院的设计就是希望两党能协商制定政策，现在两党恶斗，很多规则都从60票改到简单多数，预算也开始用规则漏洞(像这次的BBB和猪党2021年的大撒币,利用本来是为了做小幅修正的reconciliation bill来制定重大政策）。所以第三党的分票可以让国会回到必须两党协商的初衷上。
现在的情况有所不同。两党在国会都是微弱多数。如果第三党能拿下几个席位，不管哪个党执政，都不能为所欲为了。以前参议院的设计就是希望两党能协商制定政策，现在两党恶斗，很多规则都从60票改到简单多数，预算也开始用规则漏洞(像这次的BBB和猪党2021年的大撒币,利用本来是为了做小幅修正的reconciliation bill来制定重大政策）。所以第三党的分票可以让国会回到必须两党协商的初衷上。
Best 写了： 今天 07:19 libertarian party 早已有之，从Ron Paul 开始尝试了30多年了，在美国政体下成不了气候。事实证明只有trump能扭转急剧的左倾，trump有很多不尽人意的地方，但是不论现在还是将来，和过去8年一样，捏着鼻子也得选GOP。
不能对GOP过于严苛，要想像一下如果现在是党执政，会是什么样子。
党执政，会是什么样子。
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#12 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
你原来天天支持，心里也知道是骗：lilyamao 写了： 昨天 23:26 LOL，等着看
GOP造谣造到川粉自己都信了
非法移民虽然不能投票、确是乌泱泱的川粉、譬如纽约凤姐、一直在社交媒体上造谣传谣污蔑民主党
现在被老川收拾、拍手叫快
我有一个认识的人是纽约川粉，带一帮华人非法移民干地产，铁杆川粉、拜登在位天天造谣、好，现在生意也没得做了、他的走线华人也跑了、Medicaid 也没得骗了
“Medicaid 也没得骗了”
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#13 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
中肯，理性。windy 写了： 今天 08:21 以前的第三党致力于总统的位子，或者在总统大选里搅局，这个是不切实际的做法。在美国的选举生态下，第三党在几十年内是不可能拿到总统的。搅局的角色对美国的政治生态根本影响不了。
现在的情况有所不同。两党在国会都是微弱多数。如果第三党能拿下几个席位，不管哪个党执政，都不能为所欲为了。以前参议院的设计就是希望两党能协商制定政策，现在两党恶斗，很多规则都从60票改到简单多数，预算也开始用规则漏洞(像这次的BBB和猪党2021年的大撒币,利用本来是为了做小幅修正的reconciliation bill来制定重大政策）。所以第三党的分票可以让国会回到必须两党协商的初衷上。
如果第三党参院能拿5票or众院能拿30票，绝对利好美国的国家利益。
希望第三党能拉来JPMorgan 的Jamie Simon 来竞选总统。
Make America Great Again
#16 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
属实，非法移民中川粉确实不少。
华人中，很多把父母接出来吃福利的川粉。
华人中，很多把父母接出来吃福利的川粉。
lilyamao 写了： 昨天 23:26 LOL，等着看
GOP造谣造到川粉自己都信了
非法移民虽然不能投票、确是乌泱泱的川粉、譬如纽约凤姐、一直在社交媒体上造谣传谣污蔑民主党
现在被老川收拾、拍手叫快
我有一个认识的人是纽约川粉，带一帮华人非法移民干地产，铁杆川粉、拜登在位天天造谣、好，现在生意也没得做了、他的走线华人也跑了、Medicaid 也没得骗了
#18 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
我看到的非法移民，大多是支持川普
你不知道这批人的傻逼程度，他们理念上更认同GOP的宗教和川普的弱肉强食
你去看看推特上一些华人非法移民和微信里的视频，大选前一片倒支持川普，她们不认为自己会被驱逐，只认为新的不会进来
其实和华川粉支持川普一个思路，不认为自己会被歧视和去公民化，只认为进来的会更少
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#19 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
🐷党是极左，trump是中右（经济上不够右）, 想成立第三党继续往右拉，比trump更保守，怎么能跑到trump左边摇摆？
再说了Musk 说的第三党一直有， liberation party 和茶党，自己成不了气候，没得选择，只有依附于GOP，在议题投票时利用几票的决定权牵制。没啥大用。
想要进一步偏右，只有把大部分议员都换成右派才行。Musk 就是在忽悠搅局。
再说了Musk 说的第三党一直有， liberation party 和茶党，自己成不了气候，没得选择，只有依附于GOP，在议题投票时利用几票的决定权牵制。没啥大用。
想要进一步偏右，只有把大部分议员都换成右派才行。Musk 就是在忽悠搅局。
windy 写了： 今天 08:21 以前的第三党致力于总统的位子，或者在总统大选里搅局，这个是不切实际的做法。在美国的选举生态下，第三党在几十年内是不可能拿到总统的。搅局的角色对美国的政治生态根本影响不了。
现在的情况有所不同。两党在国会都是微弱多数。如果第三党能拿下几个席位，不管哪个党执政，都不能为所欲为了。以前参议院的设计就是希望两党能协商制定政策，现在两党恶斗，很多规则都从60票改到简单多数，预算也开始用规则漏洞(像这次的BBB和猪党2021年的大撒币,利用本来是为了做小幅修正的reconciliation bill来制定重大政策）。所以第三党的分票可以让国会回到必须两党协商的初衷上。
#20 Re: 票仓被赶走，再被第三党分走一部分，民主党往后会不会一蹶不振？
而且华人老人院，我去拉过民主党的票
大概100个亚裔老人， 95个支持川普的样子
这也是这次大选民调严重失真的主要原因，这些不讲英语的亚裔老人，南美老人，都不参加民调 ，然后乌泱泱选川普
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