中国新冠超额死亡人数140-190万

[StMichael]

图中小字部分是通过这个研究推算的全国新冠超额死亡人数：140万

超额死亡率千分之一

英美千分之三点四上下

[StMichael]

从上面逐月死亡人数bar chart上可以看出，超额死亡发生在2022年十二月和2023年一月。

和中国放开防疫措施时间吻合。2023年二月死亡人数就降到了新冠疫情前均值

这就是为什么会出现医院火葬场挤兑

特别是火葬场，平时是不会有extra capacity的，因为经济上不make sense

所以，这种超额死亡集中出现的时候，就会出现over capacity的现象

看社交媒体也可以看到，发生在十二月和一月，二月和以后就没有了

和这篇文章里的数据吻合

还有一点就是，新冠死亡主要集中在六十岁以上人群。

所以，根据各地老龄人口比例，死亡率会差异很大

要推算全国超额死亡率，要根据全国六十岁以上人口比例来修正。

[StMichael]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2808734

这里是一篇西雅图Fred Hutchinson的文章， 根据网络可以搜索到的讣告建模估算中国新冠超额死亡187万

和上海文章结论一致

Logo of jamasd
JAMA Network Open
JAMA Netw Open. 2023 Aug; 6(8): e2330877.
Published online 2023 Aug 24. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.30877
PMCID: PMC10450565
PMID: 37615984
Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy
Hong Xiao, PhD,corresponding author 1 Zhicheng Wang, PhD, 2 Fang Liu, MD, 2 and Joseph M. Unger, PhD, MScorresponding author 1
Author information Article notes Copyright and License information PMC Disclaimer
Associated Data

Supplementary Materials

This cohort study estimates excess mortality among adults aged 30 years or older following the end of China’s zero COVID policy.
Go to:
Key Points
Question

Was the sudden end of China’s zero COVID policy associated with an increase in population all-cause mortality?
Findings

In this cohort study across all regions in mainland China, an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older during the first 2 months after the end of China’s zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China, with the exception of Tibet.
Meaning

These findings suggest that the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy in China was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality.

[Topgolf118]

赞学术精神

[chace]

某些人看英文费劲， 给个中文的link：
美研究报告：中国结束清零后两个月超额死亡或达187万人
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/chin ... 25-1426985

当然某人会说原始数据就不可靠， 还是通过她道听途说得来的数字，推出的一千万靠谱

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2808734

这里是一篇西雅图Fred Hutchinson的文章， 根据网络可以搜索到的讣告建模估算中国新冠超额死亡187万

和上海文章结论一致

Logo of jamasd
JAMA Network Open
JAMA Netw Open. 2023 Aug; 6(8): e2330877.
Published online 2023 Aug 24. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.30877
PMCID: PMC10450565
PMID: 37615984
Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy
Hong Xiao, PhD,corresponding author 1 Zhicheng Wang, PhD, 2 Fang Liu, MD, 2 and Joseph M. Unger, PhD, MScorresponding author 1
Author information Article notes Copyright and License information PMC Disclaimer
Associated Data

Supplementary Materials

This cohort study estimates excess mortality among adults aged 30 years or older following the end of China’s zero COVID policy.
Go to:
Key Points
Question

Was the sudden end of China’s zero COVID policy associated with an increase in population all-cause mortality?
Findings

In this cohort study across all regions in mainland China, an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older during the first 2 months after the end of China’s zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China, with the exception of Tibet.
Meaning

These findings suggest that the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy in China was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality.

[chace]

这个文章也有一点缺陷。
估算出的超额死亡人数 1，396，780 是个6位 有效数字。这是不科学的
应该是像你这样的， 给出个3 - 4 位有效数字。

图中小字部分是通过这个研究推算的全国新冠超额死亡人数：140万

超额死亡率千分之一

英美千分之三点四上下

[BCQ1]

鬼才信

[退伍兵李洪志]

14亿死了4亿还剩14亿，
你们轮畜生不会算术吗

轮子们刚给李洪志把肺炎死亡四亿的狗屎舔干净 ，
方伟发正念又把死者复活了？
吹嘘能帮他们十四亿人拆除防火墙

[Mountainlion]

200万就把几个月库存棺材盒用光了？

图中小字部分是通过这个研究推算的全国新冠超额死亡人数：140万

超额死亡率千分之一

英美千分之三点四上下

[foxbat]

习冠三年累积下来，死亡率绝对有1%，也就是一千四百万

[fieldman]

这恰恰说明是真算出来的。数值模拟5000次取中位数，肯定是可丁可卯精确到个位。

这个文章也有一点缺陷。
估算出的超额死亡人数 1，396，780 是个6位 有效数字。这是不科学的
应该是像你这样的， 给出个3 - 4 位有效数字。

[ferrygao]

你家死人也许应该是你关心的事情 人嘛就是个号码 想着隐形奴隶也当家作主 我也是醉了

[还我人权和自由]

川普的功劳,美国基本盘够大玩砸了也能用小弟们来补血,所以自伤八百也要伤中国一千很正确,在美国经济乏力下,用死点人就扼住中国经济猛涨的势头,所以川普当政时中美竞争中美国小赢一局,要是川普第二任期带领美国经济强劲上升的同时,还能继续扼住中国经济那才是美国的大胜

[HouseMD]

说到死亡率，单单omicron, 我记得当初中国公布的死亡率也是低于全世界其他地方的