利息如果不够币值下降的多，
就卖不出去了？
国债跌，是不是因为有美元贬值预期？
版主： 牛河梁， alexwlt1024
#4 Re: 国债跌，是不是因为有美元贬值预期？
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米没脸储降息后米国债本应涨，尤其是长期国债。
因为长期国债是打折卖出的，到期以票面值兑现。
但如果预期米元大幅贬值，国债自然也会不值钱。
所以降息而国债不涨甚至还跌，意味国债卖压大。
高手不在乎，因可做空贬值或看跌的债券和股票。
.
米没脸储降息后米国债本应涨，尤其是长期国债。
因为长期国债是打折卖出的，到期以票面值兑现。
但如果预期米元大幅贬值，国债自然也会不值钱。
所以降息而国债不涨甚至还跌，意味国债卖压大。
高手不在乎，因可做空贬值或看跌的债券和股票。
.
#5 Re: 国债跌，是不是因为有美元贬值预期？
当然是mm控盘啊
chatgpt：
On September 18, 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, bringing them to a range of 4.75-5.00%. This was a larger cut than many expected and marked the first rate decrease since mid-2023. Despite this, U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly longer-term ones, experienced a drop in prices (and a corresponding rise in yields).
There are a few key reasons for this reaction in the bond market:
1. **Market Expectations**: Prior to the rate cut, the bond market had already priced in expectations for future rate cuts. Thus, the actual reduction didn't significantly surprise the market, and bond yields (which move inversely to prices) had already begun to adjust upward. For example, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds increased slightly from 3.70% to 3.74% following the announcement [oai_citation:4,Fed initiates interest rate cuts with larger-than-normal 0.5% reduction | U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financ ... -rate.html) [oai_citation:3,Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/).
2. **Inflation and Economic Outlook**: Despite the Fed cutting rates, concerns about inflation and economic growth persist. Although inflation has been moderating, it remains above the Fed's 2% target, and the Fed's aggressive policy stance still signals caution. Investors may be worried that the economy could continue facing headwinds, which makes bonds less attractive [oai_citation:2,Fed initiates interest rate cuts with larger-than-normal 0.5% reduction | U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financ ... -rate.html).
3. **Balance Sheet Reduction**: The Fed has also been reducing its holdings of Treasury bonds, a process known as "quantitative tightening." This ongoing reduction in demand for bonds from the Fed itself can put downward pressure on bond prices [oai_citation:1,Fed initiates interest rate cuts with larger-than-normal 0.5% reduction | U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financ ... -rate.html).
In summary, while a rate cut often leads to higher bond prices, in this case, the market had anticipated the move, and other economic factors like inflation and balance sheet reductions led to a more muted response, with bond prices falling slightly instead of rising.
chatgpt：
On September 18, 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, bringing them to a range of 4.75-5.00%. This was a larger cut than many expected and marked the first rate decrease since mid-2023. Despite this, U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly longer-term ones, experienced a drop in prices (and a corresponding rise in yields).
There are a few key reasons for this reaction in the bond market:
1. **Market Expectations**: Prior to the rate cut, the bond market had already priced in expectations for future rate cuts. Thus, the actual reduction didn't significantly surprise the market, and bond yields (which move inversely to prices) had already begun to adjust upward. For example, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds increased slightly from 3.70% to 3.74% following the announcement [oai_citation:4,Fed initiates interest rate cuts with larger-than-normal 0.5% reduction | U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financ ... -rate.html) [oai_citation:3,Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/).
2. **Inflation and Economic Outlook**: Despite the Fed cutting rates, concerns about inflation and economic growth persist. Although inflation has been moderating, it remains above the Fed's 2% target, and the Fed's aggressive policy stance still signals caution. Investors may be worried that the economy could continue facing headwinds, which makes bonds less attractive [oai_citation:2,Fed initiates interest rate cuts with larger-than-normal 0.5% reduction | U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financ ... -rate.html).
3. **Balance Sheet Reduction**: The Fed has also been reducing its holdings of Treasury bonds, a process known as "quantitative tightening." This ongoing reduction in demand for bonds from the Fed itself can put downward pressure on bond prices [oai_citation:1,Fed initiates interest rate cuts with larger-than-normal 0.5% reduction | U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financ ... -rate.html).
In summary, while a rate cut often leads to higher bond prices, in this case, the market had anticipated the move, and other economic factors like inflation and balance sheet reductions led to a more muted response, with bond prices falling slightly instead of rising.
#6 Re: 国债跌，是不是因为有美元贬值预期？
长期国债不是打折出售吧。长期国债以票面价格出售，定期付利息。 短期（一年以内）的才是低于face value 出售利息为0逍遥自由 写了： 2024年 9月 26日 01:58 .
米没脸储降息后米国债本应涨，尤其是长期国债。
因为长期国债是打折卖出的，到期以票面值兑现。
但如果预期米元大幅贬值，国债自然也会不值钱。
所以降息而国债不涨甚至还跌，意味国债卖压大。
高手不在乎，因可做空贬值或看跌的债券和股票。
.