川阿扁药丸， 卡姐在艾俄蛙民调领先

[VladPutin]

[YouHi]

很好。干死这375磅的纳粹肥猪。

[jeered77]

都什么时候了还在说民调？

[VladPutin]

连艾奥瓦都能输，川阿扁还是洗洗屁股准备捡肥皂吧。

[YouHi]

The Selzer poll is generally considered the gold standard in polling. Dr. Selzer and her firm only tackle Iowa-level races, but it's the one poll that doesn't miss: she predicted Obama's caucus win in 2008, and Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020 (again, in Iowa) and was within 2% of the final margins - so even when people where saying that Biden was comfortably leading Trump, Seltzer's data was actually showing Trump winning Iowa by +7 or so (which meant the rest of the race in swing states was going to be much tighter, which it ended up being). This is the one poll that continued to output good quality results, even in the face of Trumpism and during the COVID years. So them saying that Harris would win *Iowa* is absolutely bonkers. If they're as correct as they usually are, then Harris is about to walk out of there with over 350 electoral votes.

[YouHi]

Other key findings in Iowa Poll:

Independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, 57% to 29%

Senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%

97% of Dems support Harris, while only 89% of Republicans support Trump

目测川脯要完。

[CellcycleBa]

这民调是The Des Moines Register, Mediacom十月底做的。它九月初做的结果是我川领先四个百分点。
另外的调查机构的结果还是我川遥遥领先。
所以，我川稳了。

[haiwaihuaren]

猪粉们对着假新闻撸有意思？

3天后脸都被打肿了

[长廊夜话]

川普这次会输得很惨。
这个民调是最准的，是一个大学女教授做的，并且过去很多年每次都是准的，她只做当地的民调，不做全国的，没有外国势力的干涉。

[长廊夜话]

Other key findings in Iowa Poll:

Independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, 57% to 29%

Senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%

97% of Dems support Harris, while only 89% of Republicans support Trump

目测川脯要完。

是的，并且Iowa的这个倾向很代表中西部其他摇摆州，比如说OH, PA, MI 和WI的倾向。

[诺华老药工]

NEW YORK POST 在枪响后不到两小时，在能看到尸体的金发的情况下，仍报道是CHINESE MAN. 说明有人喂料。喂料的人一般是第一个转发的。说明章家顿先生是重要的知情者。

[ferrygao]

胖猪要去捡肥皂了哦

[Jason6278]

Vote, vote, vote.
Vote Trump out!

[赖美豪中]

golden 垃圾，我老看了raw data, 我只能说能把这个sample weight出来正确结果的值得下一次nobel物理学奖

The Selzer poll is generally considered the gold standard in polling. Dr. Selzer and her firm only tackle Iowa-level races, but it's the one poll that doesn't miss: she predicted Obama's caucus win in 2008, and Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020 (again, in Iowa) and was within 2% of the final margins - so even when people where saying that Biden was comfortably leading Trump, Seltzer's data was actually showing Trump winning Iowa by +7 or so (which meant the rest of the race in swing states was going to be much tighter, which it ended up being). This is the one poll that continued to output good quality results, even in the face of Trumpism and during the COVID years. So them saying that Harris would win *Iowa* is absolutely bonkers. If they're as correct as they usually are, then Harris is about to walk out of there with over 350 electoral votes.

[赖美豪中]

过去就很不准，不用看远古的，最近就有错的
2018 Iowa Governor - Reynolds vs. Hubbell
pollster date sample moe
Hubbell (D)
Reynolds (R)
*
spread
Final Results
— — — 47.4 50.4
Reynolds
+3.0
RCP Average
10/8 - 11/2 — — 45.0 44.3
Hubbell
+0.7
Des Moines Register
10/30 - 11/2 801 LV 3.5 46 44
Hubbell
+2
Emerson
10/29 - 11/1 1462 LV 2.7 45 49
Reynolds
+4
Univ. of Iowa
10/8 - 10/22 496 LV 4.5 44 40
Hubbell
+4

川普这次会输得很惨。
这个民调是最准的，是一个大学女教授做的，并且过去很多年每次都是准的，她只做当地的民调，不做全国的，没有外国势力的干涉。

[长廊夜话]

过去就很不准，不用看远古的，最近就有错的
2018 Iowa Governor - Reynolds vs. Hubbell
pollster date sample moe
Hubbell (D)
Reynolds (R)
*
spread
Final Results
— — — 47.4 50.4
Reynolds
+3.0
RCP Average
10/8 - 11/2 — — 45.0 44.3
Hubbell
+0.7
Des Moines Register
10/30 - 11/2 801 LV 3.5 46 44
Hubbell
+2
Emerson
10/29 - 11/1 1462 LV 2.7 45 49
Reynolds
+4
Univ. of Iowa
10/8 - 10/22 496 LV 4.5 44 40
Hubbell
+4

总统选举的预测没有错过一次。

[赖美豪中]

笑尿了，100%的pollster再tx过去30年总统选举都没错过一次

总统选举的预测没有错过一次。

[YouHi]

胖猪要去捡肥皂了哦

且奸且珍惜

[YouHi]

老领导虽然嘴硬，但是浑身汗如雨下。

[CalCat]

Texas will vote for Harris 2024!