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怎么看reddit
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#25 Re: 怎么看reddit
说一个Reddit有用的地方： 知道BTC用power law( Price=A*days^n, (days from Genesis Block), n=5.8. )来解决它的走势和时间的关系吗？ 这是一个物理教授Giovanni Santostasi最先发现的，12年前了，他发现后，最先在Reddit上发表他的发现。
#28 Re: 怎么看reddit
具体讲讲？cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 11:34 说一个Reddit有用的地方： 知道BTC用power law( Price=A*days^n, (days from Genesis Block), n=5.8. )来解决它的走势和时间的关系吗？ 这是一个物理教授Giovanni Santostasi最先发现的，12年前了，他发现后，最先在Reddit上发表他的发现。
急急如丧家之犬
忙忙似漏网之鱼
忙忙似漏网之鱼
#33 Re: 怎么看reddit
先上一张用chatGPT 画的 internet usage和btc price，power law 的走势图
https://postimg.cc/mPg05Fnm
he price of Bitcoin (BTC) can be analyzed using the power law to explain its long-term growth and volatility. Power laws are often used to model financial markets, especially in asset price distributions, adoption rates, and network effects.
1. BTC Price Growth & Power Law Relationship
Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory appears to follow a power law regression, meaning that its price scales non-linearly with time or adoption. A simplified version of the power law formula can describe BTC’s price movement over time:
P(t)=kta
P(t)=kta
Where:
P(t)P(t) = Bitcoin price at time tt
kk = scaling constant (depends on initial conditions)
tt = time (e.g., number of days or years since inception)
aa = power-law exponent (historically estimated between 2 and 4 in log-log regression models)
This means that Bitcoin’s price doesn’t grow linearly but instead follows a power law trend with respect to time.
2. Power Law Channels in BTC Price Predictions
Researchers and analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s price, when plotted on a logarithmic scale, forms a power-law channel rather than following an exponential or linear trend. The model suggests:
BTC price moves within a band that grows as a power function of time.
The lower bound represents a long-term floor, and the upper bound represents speculative peaks.
Short-term volatility (bull/bear markets) happens within this range, but over long periods, the price respects the power law.
Example:A power law model for BTC price could look like:
P(t)=0.01×t2.8
P(t)=0.01×t2.8
This equation implies that Bitcoin's price scales with time at an exponent of 2.8, meaning as time progresses, BTC’s price grows at an accelerating rate.
3. Adoption & Network Effects (Metcalfe’s Law + Power Law)
Bitcoin’s value is also driven by network effects, which follow a power law relationship. Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users:
V∝N2
V∝N2
Since Bitcoin adoption follows an S-curve of technology adoption, price and user growth can be modeled using power laws.
4. BTC Price Corrections & Power Law Distributions
Bitcoin’s price crashes also follow a power-law distribution, meaning that:
Small corrections happen frequently.
Large crashes (e.g., 80% drawdowns) are rarer but not impossible.
The probability of a price drop P(drop>x)P(drop>x) is proportional to x−αx−α, where αα is a power-law exponent (typically between 1.5 and 2.5).
Key Takeaways
BTC price respects power law trends rather than linear or exponential models. Power law channels can be used to estimate long-term price boundaries. Adoption & Metcalfe’s Law suggest BTC value grows as more users join the network. Corrections follow a power-law distribution, meaning extreme drops are rare but possible.#34 Re: 怎么看reddit
嗯 有解释吗？ 还是纯observationcmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:31 先上一张用chatGPT 画的 internet usage和btc price，power law 的走势图
https://postimg.cc/mPg05Fnm
he price of Bitcoin (BTC) can be analyzed using the power law to explain its long-term growth and volatility. Power laws are often used to model financial markets, especially in asset price distributions, adoption rates, and network effects.
1. BTC Price Growth & Power Law Relationship
Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory appears to follow a power law regression, meaning that its price scales non-linearly with time or adoption. A simplified version of the power law formula can describe BTC’s price movement over time:
P(t)=kta
P(t)=kta
Where:
P(t)P(t) = Bitcoin price at time tt
kk = scaling constant (depends on initial conditions)
tt = time (e.g., number of days or years since inception)
aa = power-law exponent (historically estimated between 2 and 4 in log-log regression models)
This means that Bitcoin’s price doesn’t grow linearly but instead follows a power law trend with respect to time.
2. Power Law Channels in BTC Price Predictions
Researchers and analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s price, when plotted on a logarithmic scale, forms a power-law channel rather than following an exponential or linear trend. The model suggests:
BTC price moves within a band that grows as a power function of time.
The lower bound represents a long-term floor, and the upper bound represents speculative peaks.
Short-term volatility (bull/bear markets) happens within this range, but over long periods, the price respects the power law.
Example:
A power law model for BTC price could look like:
P(t)=0.01×t2.8
P(t)=0.01×t2.8
This equation implies that Bitcoin's price scales with time at an exponent of 2.8, meaning as time progresses, BTC’s price grows at an accelerating rate.
3. Adoption & Network Effects (Metcalfe’s Law + Power Law)
Bitcoin’s value is also driven by network effects, which follow a power law relationship. Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users:
V∝N2
V∝N2
Since Bitcoin adoption follows an S-curve of technology adoption, price and user growth can be modeled using power laws.
4. BTC Price Corrections & Power Law Distributions
Bitcoin’s price crashes also follow a power-law distribution, meaning that:
Small corrections happen frequently.
Large crashes (e.g., 80% drawdowns) are rarer but not impossible.
The probability of a price drop P(drop>x)P(drop>x) is proportional to x−αx−α, where αα is a power-law exponent (typically between 1.5 and 2.5).
Key Takeaways
BTC price respects power law trends rather than linear or exponential models.
急急如丧家之犬
忙忙似漏网之鱼
忙忙似漏网之鱼
#36 Re: 怎么看reddit
btc和power law的关系是先观察出来的。 你可以看看Giovanni的X： https://x.com/giovann35084111
这种定量分析的介入对我操作btc帮助很大，了解未来的可能，当前就好做了。那些btc Maxi很不喜欢目前btc的走势，而我是OK
#38 Re: 怎么看reddit
reddit重度用户？ 竟然不写文章放arxiv上占个坑cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 11:34 说一个Reddit有用的地方： 知道BTC用power law( Price=A*days^n, (days from Genesis Block), n=5.8. )来解决它的走势和时间的关系吗？ 这是一个物理教授Giovanni Santostasi最先发现的，12年前了，他发现后，最先在Reddit上发表他的发现。
好日子还在后头呢！
#39 Re: 怎么看reddit
嗯嗯cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:50 btc和power law的关系是先观察出来的。 你可以看看Giovanni的X： https://x.com/giovann35084111
这种定量分析的介入对我操作btc帮助很大，了解未来的可能，当前就好做了。那些btc Maxi很不喜欢目前btc的走势，而我是OK
不过btc已经这么高位了
你还操作？波段？
急急如丧家之犬
忙忙似漏网之鱼
忙忙似漏网之鱼