中文媒体上盛传的海湖庄园协议

[wass]

想的美，人家也加关税啊，哪个鸟他了？

这正是川普要的，逆全球化

[Feliz]

不就是闭门锁国吗？国内物价会贵上天，国外美元贬值买不了什么东西，投资成草纸，霸权都不要想了。这跟美国什么仇什么恨？

这正是川普要的，逆全球化

[wass]

不就是闭门锁国吗？国内物价会贵上天，国外美元贬值买不了什么东西，投资成草纸，霸权都不要想了。这跟美国什么仇什么恨？

哈哈，美元贬值就是国债减少了

美元霸权依旧，因为过去几年对比加币等增值太多

[qiant213]

问题来了，外国债主为什么要就范？

那就退出美国市场，供应链。

[coolcat]

不改迟早要死，改了早死
想救美国，只有一个办法：禁止信用卡、消费贷、buy now pay later等等一切分期付款方式

你这啥思维？

[laomei9]

这是逼川普上吊吗

[hitmantb]

这是广场协议的翻版，用关税和保护费逼迫其他国家转换债卷到百年，等于无限借债给美国。

美元大幅度贬值，让美国商品可以再次出口。

非常大胆的阳谋，川普目前的关税，让欧洲增加军费，其实都是为了下面这步棋预热。 都2025年了，不会以为川普真的只是满嘴跑火车的疯子就能从FBI抄家到重返白宫吧，何况还有马斯克这种外星人和他联手。

个人认为，就是下面的剧本，因为美国真的没钱了，至于能否操作，真的不好说。

[rtyu]

Had one foreseen the Plaza Accord before its implementation in 1985, the optimal investment strategy would have been to reposition away from dollar-denominated assets and toward investments poised to benefit from a sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Key components of such a strategy might have included:

Shorting the U.S. Dollar:
Use futures, options, or forward contracts to hedge against or profit from the expected decline in the dollar’s value.

Investing in Foreign Currency Assets:
Increase exposure to currencies like the Japanese yen or the Deutsche mark, which were expected to appreciate relative to the dollar.

Shifting to Foreign Equities and Bonds:
Allocate capital to Japanese stocks or European bonds that would gain from the currency revaluation, thereby benefiting from both the appreciation of the foreign currency and potentially stronger economic fundamentals.

Focusing on U.S. Exporters:
Consider investing in U.S. companies with significant export exposure, as a weaker dollar tends to boost their competitiveness and earnings in foreign markets.

This diversified approach—hedging currency risk while strategically reallocating investments—would have been well positioned to capture the benefits of the realignment that the Plaza Accord brought about.

[Feliz]

Thanks, insightful and constructive.

Had one foreseen the Plaza Accord before its implementation in 1985, the optimal investment strategy would have been to reposition away from dollar-denominated assets and toward investments poised to benefit from a sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Key components of such a strategy might have included:

Shorting the U.S. Dollar:
Use futures, options, or forward contracts to hedge against or profit from the expected decline in the dollar’s value.

Investing in Foreign Currency Assets:
Increase exposure to currencies like the Japanese yen or the Deutsche mark, which were expected to appreciate relative to the dollar.

Shifting to Foreign Equities and Bonds:
Allocate capital to Japanese stocks or European bonds that would gain from the currency revaluation, thereby benefiting from both the appreciation of the foreign currency and potentially stronger economic fundamentals.

Focusing on U.S. Exporters:
Consider investing in U.S. companies with significant export exposure, as a weaker dollar tends to boost their competitiveness and earnings in foreign markets.

This diversified approach—hedging currency risk while strategically reallocating investments—would have been well positioned to capture the benefits of the realignment that the Plaza Accord brought about.

[不是太清楚]

光是逼外国债主买100年无息折扣国债就很难啊。日本韩国还好说，让欧洲干，死活不能同意啊。海湾国家估计也不能同意。土工也够呛。而且不是间接促成人刀，欧元成为全球储备货币吗？

[Mouseinhouse]

美元的国际货币地位被川傻一刀断送了。败家太容易。
以后有什么经济危机的，不再能够拖上全世界帮忙埋单。
真正的杀鸡取卵。

[Zephyrca]

所以最大可能就是长期的高关税，高关税只能保护美国市场，人民币升值的话对美国制造的全球竞争力会下降，tg打死也不会妥协的，最后就是事实上的脱钩，代价是美国的跨国公司收益降低，通胀增加，川普选民有机会进富士康打工

人民币国际化？做梦吧，其他国家又不傻，现在国内的外资都撤走了

[Melee]

你这啥思维？

美国为什么欠了这么多债务？为什么这么多碳排放？还不是消费主义的祸
禁了信用卡消费贷，就能有效控制过度消费
此外，信用卡有6%的费用，把这笔费用省了，物价就能降6%，通胀不就下来了？

[司马脱]

大体就是冷战后这场全球化失控了，需要重置。

重置最好的方式就是破坏掉现有工业产能分布和技术中心，和不必要的融资市场。问题在于以什么形式触发。

[Burlingame]

美国为什么欠了这么多债务？为什么这么多碳排放？还不是消费主义的祸
禁了信用卡消费贷，就能有效控制过度消费
此外，信用卡有6%的费用，把这笔费用省了，物价就能降6%，通胀不就下来了？

你先分清楚是政府债务还是民间债务，美国的主要问题是财政赤字导致政府债务增长，也就是减少国债发行，或者像你说的禁止美国政府发债

[BigNothing]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charte ... -u-s-debt/

Charted: Here’s Who Owns U.S. Debt

FED是最大的US Debt holder. 外国加起来之有20+%的美债，其中日本拥有最多，中国其次，英国第三。

[xyzcrai]

不快速搞死美国不罢休啊。

[foxdaddy]

这个早看到了，一厢情愿的东西，和现在国际资本力量平衡完全脱节，美国没有任何能力迫使盟友把国债转为零利息的100年国债。只要看看中帝发行的美元计价国债就知道和中国斗心眼的后果了。

[laomei9]

[rtyu]

Thanks, insightful and constructive.

问ChatGPT的回答

A 70/30 allocation using the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Portfolio for stocks and the Vanguard Total International Bond Portfolio for bonds is a solid, diversified starting point. In a scenario where the Mar-a-Lago Accord leads to a significant U.S. dollar depreciation and a restructured global trading system, this approach offers:

Exposure to Growth:
The 70% allocation in international stocks positions you to capture gains from foreign markets, potentially benefiting from favorable currency revaluations and economic growth outside the U.S.

Risk Mitigation:
The 30% allocation in international bonds helps reduce overall portfolio volatility and provides an income stream, serving as a buffer during periods of market stress or uncertainty.

This mix aligns with the theoretical strategy of emphasizing international assets when anticipating a weak dollar. However, keep in mind that the exact allocation should be tailored to your individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and ongoing market conditions. It's also a good idea to periodically review your portfolio and adjust as needed, especially in a volatile and rapidly evolving global economic environment.

Overall, the Vanguard 70/30 approach is a reasonable framework, but professional financial advice is always recommended to ensure it fits your specific situation.