中国肯定不愿意让俄国明显最输(我之前说过:(在短期和中长期内,)乌克兰和欧洲也都是输家;直接或有些接近直接卷入的欧洲国家只是在争谁输得更少。),否则有很大的可能会被山姆大叔“用无名指指着说”:you are the next one!
如果俄国紧急需要军火,那中国确实有很大的可能会通过某种渠道(比如通过某个第三国)把原来买的苏/俄制武器反销售回去。如果北约/美国在东亚的鼓动不变得收敛一些,中国会变得越来越有危机感而可能会“间接”给它们在俄乌战争上添堵。
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/effect- ... raine.html
With Russia engaged in a new offensive in the eastern Donbas region, China’s existing stockpile of old artillery and ammunition — some of which is Russian made and could be readily used — might give Russia’s army the breathing room to keep fighting a war that has already lasted much longer than the Kremlin had planned.
“From the end of the Cold War until approximately the mid-to-late-2000s, China was the most significant foreign customer of Russia’s defense industry,” said Lukas Fiala, project coordinator of China Foresight, a research program at the London School of Economics. Despite waning reliance on Russian imports and a turn toward home-grown weapons systems, he said, China still has a “sizable contingent of Russian equipment.”
The Russian side, too, has been heavily reliant on artillery.
“The Russian army has shown one of the few things it can do is saturate areas with artillery,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, with any new supplies allowing their forces to continue scorching Ukrainian lines.
But that success has come at a heavy cost and may have drained the Kremlin’s supplies.
While it was difficult to ascertain the current level of ammunition stocks at Russia’s disposal, O’Brien said, “They certainly have used far more than they were originally thinking.”
Russia was firing about 20,000 artillery rounds a day, a senior U.S. official told NBC News in November. Even Russia’s own mercenary force, the Wagner Group, has accused Moscow of starving them of shells. In November, U.S. officials also said North Korea was covertly supplying Russia with a large number of artillery shells, which, according to experts, suggested Russia was indeed running out.