新未名空间

hahan 写了： 2025年 2月 22日 19:18 正是粘性不强
所以才让你必须登录才能看
跟知乎一样
不过这么搞
我经常就不看了

谁告诉你Reddit要登录才能看了

biggestballs 写了： 2025年 2月 22日 19:20 谁告诉你Reddit要登录才能看了

之前有段时间是的

请问Reddit 怎么发帖？我注册一年多了，尝试几次都发不出去。

incongnito 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 06:06 请问Reddit 怎么发帖？我注册一年多了，尝试几次都发不出去。

开头用是比较难。但是习惯之后就好了。按道理发帖没问题呀。login之后，随便发。

说一个Reddit有用的地方： 知道BTC用power law( Price=A*days^n, (days from Genesis Block), n=5.8. )来解决它的走势和时间的关系吗？ 这是一个物理教授Giovanni Santostasi最先发现的，12年前了，他发现后，最先在Reddit上发表他的发现。

incongnito 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 06:06 请问Reddit 怎么发帖？我注册一年多了，尝试几次都发不出去。

先只能回帖，然后才能开帖。

yyman 写了： 2025年 2月 22日 17:36 对，我一般都是需要解决问题才去，看完就跑了，连ID都没有。所以RDDT现在赚钱主要是吃上了AI这波红利，卖素材，卖广告。

查了下
Google pays 60 million for access to all reddit dada for Gemini training

cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 11:34 说一个Reddit有用的地方： 知道BTC用power law( Price=A*days^n, (days from Genesis Block), n=5.8. )来解决它的走势和时间的关系吗？ 这是一个物理教授Giovanni Santostasi最先发现的，12年前了，他发现后，最先在Reddit上发表他的发现。

具体讲讲？

不要买，图本身就很难看，而且即使大反弹也握不住，而再往下走被套就难办了

hahan 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:07具体讲讲？

可以啊，但是是那方面的？ Reddit 还是btc？

cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:17 可以啊，但是是那方面的？ Reddit 还是btc？

Btc?

rival 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:12 不要买，图本身就很难看，而且即使大反弹也握不住，而再往下走被套就难办了

怎么难看？
跌速太快？

hahan 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:19Btc?

先上一张用chatGPT 画的 internet usage和btc price，power law 的走势图
https://postimg.cc/mPg05Fnm

he price of Bitcoin (BTC) can be analyzed using the power law to explain its long-term growth and volatility. Power laws are often used to model financial markets, especially in asset price distributions, adoption rates, and network effects.
1. BTC Price Growth & Power Law Relationship

Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory appears to follow a power law regression, meaning that its price scales non-linearly with time or adoption. A simplified version of the power law formula can describe BTC’s price movement over time:
P(t)=kta
P(t)=kta

Where:

P(t)P(t) = Bitcoin price at time tt
kk = scaling constant (depends on initial conditions)
tt = time (e.g., number of days or years since inception)
aa = power-law exponent (historically estimated between 2 and 4 in log-log regression models)

This means that Bitcoin’s price doesn’t grow linearly but instead follows a power law trend with respect to time.
2. Power Law Channels in BTC Price Predictions

Researchers and analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s price, when plotted on a logarithmic scale, forms a power-law channel rather than following an exponential or linear trend. The model suggests:

BTC price moves within a band that grows as a power function of time.
The lower bound represents a long-term floor, and the upper bound represents speculative peaks.
Short-term volatility (bull/bear markets) happens within this range, but over long periods, the price respects the power law.

Example:
A power law model for BTC price could look like:
P(t)=0.01×t2.8
P(t)=0.01×t2.8

This equation implies that Bitcoin's price scales with time at an exponent of 2.8, meaning as time progresses, BTC’s price grows at an accelerating rate.
3. Adoption & Network Effects (Metcalfe’s Law + Power Law)

Bitcoin’s value is also driven by network effects, which follow a power law relationship. Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users:
V∝N2
V∝N2

Since Bitcoin adoption follows an S-curve of technology adoption, price and user growth can be modeled using power laws.
4. BTC Price Corrections & Power Law Distributions

Bitcoin’s price crashes also follow a power-law distribution, meaning that:

Small corrections happen frequently.
Large crashes (e.g., 80% drawdowns) are rarer but not impossible.
The probability of a price drop P(drop>x)P(drop>x) is proportional to x−αx−α, where αα is a power-law exponent (typically between 1.5 and 2.5).

Key Takeaways

BTC price respects power law trends rather than linear or exponential models.
Power law channels can be used to estimate long-term price boundaries.
Adoption & Metcalfe’s Law suggest BTC value grows as more users join the network.
Corrections follow a power-law distribution, meaning extreme drops are rare but possible.

cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:31 先上一张用chatGPT 画的 internet usage和btc price，power law 的走势图
https://postimg.cc/mPg05Fnm

he price of Bitcoin (BTC) can be analyzed using the power law to explain its long-term growth and volatility. Power laws are often used to model financial markets, especially in asset price distributions, adoption rates, and network effects.
1. BTC Price Growth & Power Law Relationship

Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory appears to follow a power law regression, meaning that its price scales non-linearly with time or adoption. A simplified version of the power law formula can describe BTC’s price movement over time:
P(t)=kta
P(t)=kta

Where:

P(t)P(t) = Bitcoin price at time tt
kk = scaling constant (depends on initial conditions)
tt = time (e.g., number of days or years since inception)
aa = power-law exponent (historically estimated between 2 and 4 in log-log regression models)

This means that Bitcoin’s price doesn’t grow linearly but instead follows a power law trend with respect to time.
2. Power Law Channels in BTC Price Predictions

Researchers and analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s price, when plotted on a logarithmic scale, forms a power-law channel rather than following an exponential or linear trend. The model suggests:

BTC price moves within a band that grows as a power function of time.
The lower bound represents a long-term floor, and the upper bound represents speculative peaks.
Short-term volatility (bull/bear markets) happens within this range, but over long periods, the price respects the power law.

Example:
A power law model for BTC price could look like:
P(t)=0.01×t2.8
P(t)=0.01×t2.8

This equation implies that Bitcoin's price scales with time at an exponent of 2.8, meaning as time progresses, BTC’s price grows at an accelerating rate.
3. Adoption & Network Effects (Metcalfe’s Law + Power Law)

Bitcoin’s value is also driven by network effects, which follow a power law relationship. Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users:
V∝N2
V∝N2

Since Bitcoin adoption follows an S-curve of technology adoption, price and user growth can be modeled using power laws.
4. BTC Price Corrections & Power Law Distributions

Bitcoin’s price crashes also follow a power-law distribution, meaning that:

Small corrections happen frequently.
Large crashes (e.g., 80% drawdowns) are rarer but not impossible.
The probability of a price drop P(drop>x)P(drop>x) is proportional to x−αx−α, where αα is a power-law exponent (typically between 1.5 and 2.5).

Key Takeaways

BTC price respects power law trends rather than linear or exponential models.
Power law channels can be used to estimate long-term price boundaries.
Adoption & Metcalfe’s Law suggest BTC value grows as more users join the network.
Corrections follow a power-law distribution, meaning extreme drops are rare but possible.

嗯 有解释吗？ 还是纯observation

hahan 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:19 怎么难看？
跌速太快？

risk/reward不好，小小仓位玩玩无妨，但战略性的交易，指望它赚个大的，就不要买卖这些天天让自己嘀咕的股票。

hahan 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:35 嗯 有解释吗？ 还是纯observation

btc和power law的关系是先观察出来的。 你可以看看Giovanni的X： https://x.com/giovann35084111

这种定量分析的介入对我操作btc帮助很大，了解未来的可能，当前就好做了。那些btc Maxi很不喜欢目前btc的走势，而我是OK

rival 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:12 不要买，图本身就很难看，而且即使大反弹也握不住，而再往下走被套就难办了

目前160-180之间是中枢，继续下跌有可能，但是目前进价OK，明白吗？

cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 11:34 说一个Reddit有用的地方： 知道BTC用power law( Price=A*days^n, (days from Genesis Block), n=5.8. )来解决它的走势和时间的关系吗？ 这是一个物理教授Giovanni Santostasi最先发现的，12年前了，他发现后，最先在Reddit上发表他的发现。

reddit重度用户？ 竟然不写文章放arxiv上占个坑

cmrhm2008 写了： 2025年 2月 23日 14:50 btc和power law的关系是先观察出来的。 你可以看看Giovanni的X： https://x.com/giovann35084111

这种定量分析的介入对我操作btc帮助很大，了解未来的可能，当前就好做了。那些btc Maxi很不喜欢目前btc的走势，而我是OK

嗯嗯
不过btc已经这么高位了
你还操作？波段？

Rather 写了： 2025年 2月 22日 17:49 它下面准备卖内容赚钱，我觉得这个有前途。强行从参与者上面赚钱是杀鸡取软。

内容也是用户直接产生的
之前不卖还是个模糊地带