美国的治安和枪没啥关系，和人口组成关系不小。

[jhe123]

以前实在懒得一个州一个州的手动输入数据来验证。现在网上找到个网站直接下载相关数据，可以作图了。数据来源：

2020 各州命案：https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... e-by-state
2023 各州AA人口比例： https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

两个数据年份不一致，但应该影响不大，三年时间各州人口组成的变化基本可以忽略。

[rihai]

逗逼一个， 是个人都知道别往名贵区钻
小黄人需要担心的是白疮麦斯舒婷
你这种专去名贵枪战区转悠的二逼， 才关心这种人人都知道的事实
LOL

以前实在懒得一个州一个州的手动输入数据来验证。现在网上找到个网站直接下载相关数据，可以作图了。数据来源：

2020 各州命案：https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... e-by-state
2023 各州AA人口比例： https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

两个数据年份不一致，但应该影响不大，三年时间各州人口组成的变化基本可以忽略。

[sweetbrother]

Rsquare 0.6不是很好的。

[jhe123]

逗逼一个， 是个人都知道别往名贵区钻
小黄人需要担心的是白疮麦斯舒婷
你这种专去名贵枪战区转悠的二逼， 才关心这种人人都知道的事实
LOL

虽然每次发生都很轰动，但公共场合mass shooting平均下来一年不过死伤各100人而已，这种小概率事件你这蠢逼也要担心，LOL。。。

叔当然不care 名贵们的狗屁事情，这个帖子只是给那些说到治安就只会怪罪到枪支头上的另一类蠢逼们看的。LOL。。。

[jhe123]

Rsquare 0.6不是很好的。

当然不是很好，但治安这个问题和多种因素有关，人口组成，单身母亲家庭比例，经济水平是影响治安最大的三个因素，其它的因素包括警力和对犯罪惩罚的宽严等等。

[fortyNiner]

Nobody denies that crime rates are related to racial demography, but this world is not a two-dimensional one. Many factors affect crime rates, and gun ownership is just one of them. I have never mentioned or implied that gun ownership is the only factor.
Just to point out you hypocrisy. On your graph, there are many examples of much lower AA% states wiht much higher (even more than 2-times) homicide rates. According to you, this has proven that crime rates is not related to racial demography since you have used similar example to argue that gun ownership is not related to crime rates. Just say that according to your reasoning. I am not denying the relationship between crime rates and racial demography.

[jhe123]

Nobody denies that crime rates are related to racial demography, but this world is not a two-dimensional one. Many factors affect crime rates, and gun ownership is just one of them. I have never mentioned or implied that gun ownership is the only factor.
Just to point out you hypocrisy. On your graph, there are many examples of much lower AA% states wiht much higher (even more than 2-times) homicide rates. According to you, this has proven that crime rates is not related to racial demography since you have used similar example to argue that gun ownership is not related to crime rates. Just say that according to your reasoning. I am not denying the relationship between crime rates and racial demography.

呵呵，现学现卖想依葫芦画瓢的套用我的逻辑，LOL。。。可惜你又露怯了。因为枪支拥有率和谋杀率没有啥关系，和人种却是强相关。你看到我贴的图上好像人种和谋杀率的点也很散乱，就以为可以拿来为你那完全不成立的拥枪率-谋杀率关系辩护？哈哈，不懂装懂就只能让人笑话了。

我的图是以黑人在各州的人口比例来做的，其实这个并不理想，但这个是我仅有的可以拿来简单方便的作图的数据，将就着用看个大概趋势就行了。真正证明谋杀率和枪支无关，和人口组成强相关的，是下面这张图。按照county来看，谋杀率最高的county是黑人聚居区，聚居区外面紧挨着的没有黑人聚居的白人county的谋杀率，和严格禁枪没有黑人聚居的白人county谋杀率没有区别。

[fortyNiner]

Look at your map. Aren't most of your high homicide rate places also places with higher gun ownership? Why do you just look at the AA% and rule out other factors?

>>谋杀率和枪支无关
Typical trumper's "I say it, I don't need evidence."

呵呵，现学现卖想依葫芦画瓢的套用我的逻辑，LOL。。。可惜你又露怯了。因为枪支拥有率和谋杀率没有啥关系，和人种却是强相关。你看到我贴的图上好像人种和谋杀率的点也很散乱，就以为可以拿来为你那完全不成立的拥枪率-谋杀率关系辩护？哈哈，不懂装懂就只能让人笑话了。

我的图是以黑人在各州的人口比例来做的，其实这个并不理想，但这个是我仅有的可以拿来简单方便的作图的数据，将就着用看个大概趋势就行了。真正证明谋杀率和枪支无关，和人口组成强相关的，是下面这张图。按照county来看，谋杀率最高的county是黑人聚居区，聚居区外面紧挨着的没有黑人聚居的白人county的谋杀率，和严格禁枪没有黑人聚居的白人county谋杀率没有区别。

[jhe123]

Look at your map. Aren't most of your high homicide rate places also places with higher gun ownership? Why do you just look at the AA% and rule out other factors?

>>谋杀率和枪支无关
Typical trumper's "I say it, I don't need evidence."

你是眼神不好还是阅读能力不行？或者你认为那些高拥枪率州里紧挨着黑人聚居区的白人county是因为其居民拥枪率低所以才谋杀率低的？

“按照county来看，谋杀率最高的county是黑人聚居区，聚居区外面紧挨着的没有黑人聚居的白人county的谋杀率，和严格禁枪没有黑人聚居的白人county谋杀率没有区别。”

[fortyNiner]

>>谋杀率最高的county是黑人聚居区
Not just 黑人聚居区, it's 黑人聚居区 with higher gun ownership.
There are many many 黑人聚居区, but the 黑人聚居区 with higher gun ownership are the ones with higher homicide rates.

你是眼神不好还是阅读能力不行？或者你认为那些高拥枪率州里紧挨着黑人聚居区的白人county是因为其居民拥枪率低所以才谋杀率低的？

“按照county来看，谋杀率最高的county是黑人聚居区，聚居区外面紧挨着的没有黑人聚居的白人county的谋杀率，和严格禁枪没有黑人聚居的白人county谋杀率没有区别。”

[jhe123]

>>谋杀率最高的county是黑人聚居区
Not just 黑人聚居区, it's 黑人聚居区 with higher gun ownership.
There are many many 黑人聚居区, but the 黑人聚居区 with higher gun ownership are the ones with higher homicide rates.

这个问题上你是既不知道基本的资料，也没有起码的分析能力，只凭嘴硬撑场面，LOL。。。

谋杀率图上那一片谋杀率极高的红色方块是黑人比例至少50%以上的county，有些甚至高达80%以上的黑人比例，所以他们的谋杀率反映黑人聚居区真实的谋杀率。而其他的黑人聚居区，如果在所在county的人口比例低的话，这个county统计的谋杀率要比黑人聚居区实际谋杀率低很多。拿臭名昭著的芝加哥所在的库克郡为例。库克郡的谋杀率在20左右，而伊利诺伊也是你认为的控枪严格拥枪率低的州之一，呵呵，你是不是要把库克郡黑人聚居区的“低谋杀率”归功于控枪了？

我就教一下你该如何分析实际情况吧：库克郡总共5.2M人口，黑人1.2M，聚居在芝加哥南部，占全郡人口23%，但却犯下了谋杀案的70%。库克郡整体谋杀率是20，但黑人区的实际谋杀率却是60，和南部那些红色方块一样高。所以即使看黑人聚居区，谋杀率和拥枪率也没有关系。

[fortyNiner]

So you go down to county level for crime rate, but you use state data for gun ownership. How convenient! So this 库克 county, what's its gun ownership? Don't cherry pick, it's not different from using an example of a long-lived smoker to prove smoking and health are not related. If you want to prove gun ownership and homicide rate are not related, at least provide a map of gun ownership in county level to compare against homicide rate in your map.

>>你是不是要把库克郡黑人聚居区的“低谋杀率”归功于控枪了？
So you really believe it makes no difference for these people to have more or fewer guns? You think even if the gun ownership there is higher, the homicide rate would not be higher?

>>所以即使看黑人聚居区，谋杀率和拥枪率也没有关系。
You compared the homicide rate of AA community to non-AA community to draw this conclusion? Compare gun ownership of different AA communities against homicide rates at these communities to draw a conclusion.

I am not going to waste my time and argue with deaf ears. I just have one question for you. So why do you want to give easy access to guns to these people who you believe are responsible for the homicide?

这个问题上你是既不知道基本的资料，也没有起码的分析能力，只凭嘴硬撑场面，LOL。。。

谋杀率图上那一片谋杀率极高的红色方块是黑人比例至少50%以上的county，有些甚至高达80%以上的黑人比例，所以他们的谋杀率反映黑人聚居区真实的谋杀率。而其他的黑人聚居区，如果在所在county的人口比例低的话，这个county统计的谋杀率要比黑人聚居区实际谋杀率低很多。拿臭名昭著的芝加哥所在的库克郡为例。库克郡的谋杀率在20左右，而伊利诺伊也是你认为的控枪严格拥枪率低的州之一，呵呵，你是不是要把库克郡黑人聚居区的“低谋杀率”归功于控枪了？

我就教一下你该如何分析实际情况吧：库克郡总共5.2M人口，黑人1.2M，聚居在芝加哥南部，占全郡人口23%，但却犯下了谋杀案的70%。库克郡整体谋杀率是20，但黑人区的实际谋杀率却是60，和南部那些红色方块一样高。所以即使看黑人聚居区，谋杀率和拥枪率也没有关系。

[jhe123]

So you go down to county level for crime rate, but you use state data for gun ownership. How convenient! So this 库克 county, what's its gun ownership? Don't cherry pick, it's not different from using an example of a long-lived smoker to prove smoking and health are not related. If you want to prove gun ownership and homicide rate are not related, at least provide a map of gun ownership in county level to compare against homicide rate in your map.

>>你是不是要把库克郡黑人聚居区的“低谋杀率”归功于控枪了？
So you really believe it makes no difference for these people to have more or fewer guns? You think even if the gun ownership there is higher, the homicide rate would not be higher?

>>所以即使看黑人聚居区，谋杀率和拥枪率也没有关系。
You compared the homicide rate of AA community to non-AA community to draw this conclusion? Compare gun ownership of different AA communities against homicide rates at these communities to draw a conclusion.

I am not going to waste my time and argue with deaf ears. I just have one question for you. So why do you want to give easy access to guns to these people who you believe are responsible for the homicide?

虽然没有各个郡的拥枪率，但这并不影响作判断。只要你具备基本的资料和推理能力。就拿库克郡来说，是由芝加哥这个大都市和周围密集郊区小城组成的，又是深蓝，库克郡的拥枪率绝对低于伊利诺伊的平均值。黑人拥枪率本来就比白人低，经济条件也差的多，那黑人聚居区的拥枪率肯定低于库克郡白人的拥枪率。虽然不敢保证绝对正确，但这个推理正确的概率远大于错误的概率。

另外各个郡的拥枪率在这里并不重要，因为枪法是州法，同一个州的郡都遵守同样枪法，如果严格枪法的州里有谋杀率极高的城市或者郡的话，证明这枪法对制止犯罪一点用没有。再举一个例子，新泽西也是控枪极其严格的州，但该州5个黑人多的城市的谋杀率是每10万58人，和高拥枪率的南方州内黑人聚居区的谋杀率一样高，而新泽西另外500多个城市的谋杀率只有6.5，这个和高拥枪率州治安好的区的谋杀率也一样。所以不管比好区还是差区，枪法和拥枪率都和犯罪无关。

[fortyNiner]

I don't know why you fixate on this issue. I agree with you that AA%, as well as socioeconomic status and some other things, affect crime rates. But this by on means is any evidence to indicate that crime rates do not depend on gun ownership.

虽然没有各个郡的拥枪率，但这并不影响作判断。只要你具备基本的资料和推理能力。就拿库克郡来说，是由芝加哥这个大都市和周围密集郊区小城组成的，又是深蓝，库克郡的拥枪率绝对低于伊利诺伊的平均值。黑人拥枪率本来就比白人低，经济条件也差的多，那黑人聚居区的拥枪率肯定低于库克郡白人的拥枪率。虽然不敢保证绝对正确，但这个推理正确的概率远大于错误的概率。

另外各个郡的拥枪率在这里并不重要，因为枪法是州法，同一个州的郡都遵守同样枪法，如果严格枪法的州里有谋杀率极高的城市或者郡的话，证明这枪法对制止犯罪一点用没有。再举一个例子，新泽西也是控枪极其严格的州，但该州5个黑人多的城市的谋杀率是每10万58人，和高拥枪率的南方州内黑人聚居区的谋杀率一样高，而新泽西另外500多个城市的谋杀率只有6.5，这个和高拥枪率州治安好的区的谋杀率也一样。所以不管比好区还是差区，枪法和拥枪率都和犯罪无关。

[jhe123]

I don't know why you fixate on this issue. I agree with you that AA%, as well as socioeconomic status and some other things, affect crime rates. But this by on means is any evidence to indicate that crime rates do not depend on gun ownership.

因为我要戳破反枪分子们编造的谎言，揭露犯罪率和枪支无关的真相。

[fortyNiner]

You want to give criminals and future criminals easy access to guns.

因为我要戳破反枪分子们编造的谎言，揭露犯罪率和枪支无关的真相。

[萧武达]

以AA做参数比较，是不是首先就政治不正确了
换成收入阶层如何？ 呵呵呵，多样性

[jhe123]

以AA做参数比较，是不是首先就政治不正确了
换成收入阶层如何？ 呵呵呵，多样性

人口组成是一个因素而已，AA的比例，AA是否有大规模聚居区，还有单身母亲家庭比例，经济水平，对犯罪惩罚宽严，教育等等，都是影响因素，但是现实中的情况，一是其他因素在county或者city level的数据不好找，二是有些数据高度重合性。比如单身母亲家庭里有四分之三左右是黑人家庭。所以以AA人口比例做个大致演示还是可以的。真正精确的是county 或者city level的谋杀率数据，这个上面我已经贴出来了。结论就是反枪分子们把拥枪率和谋杀率联系起来就是在瞎扯淡，谋杀率和拥枪率其实完全没有关系。

[东升西降]

呵呵，现学现卖想依葫芦画瓢的套用我的逻辑，LOL。。。可惜你又露怯了。因为枪支拥有率和谋杀率没有啥关系，和人种却是强相关。你看到我贴的图上好像人种和谋杀率的点也很散乱，就以为可以拿来为你那完全不成立的拥枪率-谋杀率关系辩护？哈哈，不懂装懂就只能让人笑话了。

我的图是以黑人在各州的人口比例来做的，其实这个并不理想，但这个是我仅有的可以拿来简单方便的作图的数据，将就着用看个大概趋势就行了。真正证明谋杀率和枪支无关，和人口组成强相关的，是下面这张图。按照county来看，谋杀率最高的county是黑人聚居区，聚居区外面紧挨着的没有黑人聚居的白人county的谋杀率，和严格禁枪没有黑人聚居的白人county谋杀率没有区别。

你这个理论很make sense, 但政治不正确。我好奇德州西南，劳模聚集，怎么谋杀率超低，跟新墨西哥亚利桑那加州不同。
单身母亲跟谋杀率有超强的正相关，还没有你这个理论的racial 风险。

[hulooo]

make sense。更深层的角度是和受教育水平和贫富差距有关。如果人人都能收到良好的教育，按需分配，人人精神稳定，肯定就没有治安问题了。