股市完全是庄家和散户之间的博弈

[noktard]

散户抛了，做空了，自然跌不下去了
跟玩电子游戏类似

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

[awaydream]

股板这几根鸡巴毛散户，算个屁啊，谁有空天天针对你？

自己有空研究几个股票，比成天发这些不着四六的垃圾帖子，要由意义得多。

[noktard]

无知者无畏，难不成投行的quant是白拿高薪吃干饭的？

Yes, game theory has been and continues to be applied extensively in the stock market, particularly in the fields of finance, trading strategy, and market microstructure. Here's how:

1. Strategic Interactions Among Traders
Game theory models situations where multiple decision-makers (traders, investors, institutions) act in strategic environments, each trying to maximize returns while anticipating others' behavior.

Example: A large investor deciding whether to buy a large number of shares now or over time, considering how others might react and how it would affect prices.

This is modeled as a sequential game or dynamic game with imperfect information.

2. Market Microstructure
This area focuses on how trading mechanisms affect price formation. Game theory helps model:

Bid-ask spread formation

Order book dynamics

Front-running and sniping strategies in high-frequency trading (HFT)

3. Insider Trading and Information Asymmetry
The Kyle Model (1985) is a classic example where game theory is used to study how informed and uninformed traders interact in financial markets.

Informed traders play a Bayesian game against market makers.

The goal is to infer how prices adjust when some traders have private information.

4. Repeated and Evolutionary Games
In markets where interactions are ongoing:

Traders may use tit-for-tat strategies or cooperate/punish based on past behavior (repeated games).

Evolutionary game theory models how strategies evolve over time based on profitability and survival.

5. Bubbles, Crashes, and Coordination Games
Game theory also helps explain:

Speculative bubbles, where investors coordinate on a belief that prices will keep rising.

Crashes, where everyone rushes to sell, leading to a coordination failure.

6. Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading
Firms engage in algorithmic strategies that compete in real-time, and these are often modeled as non-cooperative games where speed, information, and reaction matter.

Summary
Area Game Theory Application
Trader behavior Strategic decision-making, Nash equilibrium
Market design Auction theory, order book models
Information asymmetry Signaling games, Bayesian games
High-frequency trading Real-time competitive games
Bubbles & crashes Coordination games

[noktard]

1. Market Competition
Game theory models the behavior of competing traders and firms, especially in situations where decisions depend on expectations of others' actions (e.g., price wars, entry/exit strategies).

2. Insider Trading and Information Asymmetry
Games like the Bayesian game are used to study how market participants behave when some have more information than others. This helps in understanding insider trading and market signaling.

3. Auction Models
Stock offerings (like IPOs) and bond sales often use auction mechanisms, which are analyzed using auction theory—a branch of game theory.

4. Nash Equilibrium in Trading
Traders often reach a point where no one can improve their strategy unilaterally—this is a Nash equilibrium. It's particularly relevant in high-frequency trading and algorithmic trading, where strategic behavior is intense.

5. Behavioral Finance
Game theory supports models of herd behavior, bubbles, and crashes, where investors make decisions not purely on fundamentals but based on what they expect others will do.

6. Portfolio and Risk Management
Strategic games can be used to understand risk-sharing, hedging, and collusion among firms or large investors.

In academic finance and quantitative trading, game theory continues to be an essential framework for modeling and understanding complex market dynamics.

[awaydream]

这些玩意都离不开大数据统计的。

那你自己到底离他的统计模型差多远呢？
就我自己而言，我觉得我个人离他的标准模型差很远很远。

如果他的模型针对了我，那他就会错失更多的机会，就会效率极低。


以我个人的理解，你越是沉住气，多研究有限的股票，多研究多看，少操作，你就离他的标准模型越远，他就越没法搞你。

[awaydream]

我一年就交易很有限的次数，他高频交易怎么占我的便宜？
指望占我的便宜，他们都得饿死。

当然，我认为自己是非典型散户，其他人也可以认为自己是非典型散户，实际到底谁对谁错，差多少，其实很难说。

[noktard]

目测最后一批熊被烤死了