回顾和展望乌克兰情况
版主： Caravel， TheMatrix， molen
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#22 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/macron ... n-b89d1177
April 3, 2024 12:01 am ET
Macron, however, told allies there would be no need to involve NATO or the U.S. if Russia targeted French troops, according to an official. France has had casualties in military campaigns in Africa, for example, without turning to allies for help.
April 3, 2024 12:01 am ET
Macron, however, told allies there would be no need to involve NATO or the U.S. if Russia targeted French troops, according to an official. France has had casualties in military campaigns in Africa, for example, without turning to allies for help.
#24 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
with this, the probability of individual nato countries (like france) sending troops to ukraine is getting significantly higher
that would relieve some pressure off ukraine which is showing big signs of weakness from its lacking of both manpower and some other necessary resources
that would relieve some pressure off ukraine which is showing big signs of weakness from its lacking of both manpower and some other necessary resources
#26 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
在攻打avdiivka时，俄空军出击很多（以配合地面的机动力量）
现在对chasiv yar，昨天也搞了一次
在最近几个月，乌方说打下了不少飞机，但视频显示乌克兰的空中防御系统也损失了不小。还是要看继续发展下去哪个更占上风。
这里也有（但有时基本解释都会有点扯---我去年很多次比较得出的印象：德国dw明显更客观）
现在对chasiv yar，昨天也搞了一次
在最近几个月，乌方说打下了不少飞机，但视频显示乌克兰的空中防御系统也损失了不小。还是要看继续发展下去哪个更占上风。
这里也有（但有时基本解释都会有点扯---我去年很多次比较得出的印象：德国dw明显更客观）
#28 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
已经有很长时间有乌克兰人开始反抗强行征兵，不乏成功地自我解救和被解救的人
telegram上有不少视频
在俄占核电站的斜对岸
"Go and serve! Go to the f*cking war. What are you doing here? Go to the trenches!"
Residents of Nikopol saved a man from mobilization officers. The man was being forcibly dragged out of his car and Zelensky's butchers tried to take him away, local channels reported.
The women shouted at the mobilization officers butchers to go to the front themselves.
It is not clear when the video was taken.
telegram上有不少视频
在俄占核电站的斜对岸
"Go and serve! Go to the f*cking war. What are you doing here? Go to the trenches!"
Residents of Nikopol saved a man from mobilization officers. The man was being forcibly dragged out of his car and Zelensky's butchers tried to take him away, local channels reported.
The women shouted at the mobilization officers butchers to go to the front themselves.
It is not clear when the video was taken.
#29 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Federation Council Bondarev:
There are no plans for mobilization in Russia.
He emphasized that the country is coping with the help of existing combat resources.
Shoigu stated the same thing earlier. In addition, some regions began to increase one-time payments for concluding the first contract with the Russian Armed Forces.Recruitment of contract soldiers is underway.
Two Majors |
First Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Federation Council Bondarev in an interview with RIA Novosti: there are no plans for mobilization in the Russian Federation, the country is coping with the available combat resources.
上次由 meiyoumajia 在 2024年 4月 5日 15:26 修改。
#32 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
Kharkov is the most likely target of the main attack during the summer offensive of the Russian Armed Forces - head of Zelensky's office Ermak in an interview with Politico
上次由 meiyoumajia 在 2024年 4月 6日 09:46 修改。
#33 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
那段视频很有趣，但不容易被基本上理解，因此它是一个提供智者见智好机会的视频meiyoumajia 写了： 2024年 4月 5日 12:05 在攻打avdiivka时，俄空军出击很多（以配合地面的机动力量）
现在对chasiv yar，昨天也搞了一次
在最近几个月，乌方说打下了不少飞机，但视频显示乌克兰的空中防御系统也损失了不小。还是要看继续发展下去哪个更占上风。
这里也有（但有时基本解释都会有点扯---我去年很多次比较得出的印象：德国dw明显更客观）
我在看了有明显不同的3种解释后，又看到了下面的这种最有趣的解释-----（我本人相信其中部分内容，它让我有了点比较新的认识，但也让我有了更多的问题！）
#34 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
https://www.ft.com/content/ba524406-ee6 ... 0a2549569a
Antony Blinken warns allies of deepening Chinese support for Russia
Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, used meetings with EU and Nato foreign ministers this week to warn Beijing was assisting Moscow “at a concerning scale”, and providing “tools, inputs and technical expertise”, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
They quoted Blinken as saying the assistance was particularly focused on Russia’s production of optical equipment and propellants and its space sector, which he said “not only contributes to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but threatens other countries”.
Blinken raised the concerns about China in every session of a meeting of Nato foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday, one of the people said.
“The warnings were explicit,” the person said. “There has been a shift and it was felt in the room . . . this was a new development. It was very striking.”
。。。
Yellen met with vice premier He Lifeng in Guangzhou on Friday, and was scheduled to travel to Beijing tomorrow.
。。。
“We see how China is propping up the Russian war economy, delivering dual-capable equipment which is also used in the Russian military industry. In return, Moscow is mortgaging its future to Beijing,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday after the talks with Blinken.
。。。
Chinese academics, meanwhile, are carefully studying Moscow’s response to sanctions for hints on how to cope in case Beijing and the west come into conflict over Taiwan.
Antony Blinken warns allies of deepening Chinese support for Russia
Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, used meetings with EU and Nato foreign ministers this week to warn Beijing was assisting Moscow “at a concerning scale”, and providing “tools, inputs and technical expertise”, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
They quoted Blinken as saying the assistance was particularly focused on Russia’s production of optical equipment and propellants and its space sector, which he said “not only contributes to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but threatens other countries”.
Blinken raised the concerns about China in every session of a meeting of Nato foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday, one of the people said.
“The warnings were explicit,” the person said. “There has been a shift and it was felt in the room . . . this was a new development. It was very striking.”
。。。
Yellen met with vice premier He Lifeng in Guangzhou on Friday, and was scheduled to travel to Beijing tomorrow.
。。。
“We see how China is propping up the Russian war economy, delivering dual-capable equipment which is also used in the Russian military industry. In return, Moscow is mortgaging its future to Beijing,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday after the talks with Blinken.
。。。
Chinese academics, meanwhile, are carefully studying Moscow’s response to sanctions for hints on how to cope in case Beijing and the west come into conflict over Taiwan.
#35 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
当你跟一个傻子辩论的时候，你是在浪费时间，直接把那傻子加入黑名单即可
meiyoumajia 写了： 2024年 4月 3日 12:18 你理解不了”多种。。。可能中一个较大可能“的最基本意思？
小学读过4年级吗？
“”“”“”“
你再一次显示智商过于欠佳，而且已经被打脸。
我说那是多种不小可能中一个较大的可能。因为罗马尼亚可能要进兵，已经在在增加军队驻外的法律条款。
#36 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
他讨论了最近的几个较大热议点，包括前面那段视频。(我倾向于同意他和suriyakmap对那段视频的结果判断，虽然我感觉吃惊的是俄方那次很可能最多只送了一个排的人进入楼街区。乌军似乎没有足够人力在那个特定区。)
charsiv yar现在成了双方攻/守最关键的一个地方
因此在那里俄军在用配合地面进攻的su25群、用1个最精锐的空降师（第98护卫guards空降师---护卫空降师大多比空降师还精锐）、高达10量的装甲/坦克车队、用fab-1500和。。。
（在bakmut/avdiivka大地区一直在用空降部队，这里似乎都是双方的重中重点。乌军一度在这个地区部署了数万人，加上比较近的周边预备力量：6万。）
charsiv yar现在成了双方攻/守最关键的一个地方
因此在那里俄军在用配合地面进攻的su25群、用1个最精锐的空降师（第98护卫guards空降师---护卫空降师大多比空降师还精锐）、高达10量的装甲/坦克车队、用fab-1500和。。。
（在bakmut/avdiivka大地区一直在用空降部队，这里似乎都是双方的重中重点。乌军一度在这个地区部署了数万人，加上比较近的周边预备力量：6万。）
#38 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
下面的视频大致显示了现在全线/全局的基本情况
我认为：
从整体来说，在绝大多数地方基本持平。俄方在当前最重要的（在过去两年倍受攻击的顿涅斯“共和国”中心地区周边）区域有很明显的局部优势。俄方正是靠找到这种局部优势造成比较大的突破。
乌方在kharkiv地区对俄国境内入侵转为炮火攻击、再转为大量而且深入的无人机攻击后，俄国面临着巨大的压力要尽早把最重点转到Kharkiv城和周边地区。现在在做若干种大的攻击。也许2-3个月后，俄方最主要的全方位攻击会开始在那边发展出来。
他稍微讨论了布在kharkiv的2个mlrs
再一次显示：对战争比较了解而且相对比较客观的人们对同一个（即使比较易懂）视频的解释都会有很明显的主要差异
#39 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
再提一下仁者见仁和智者见智的问题
我在另外一个主题里讨论了那里被人提起的与主题完全无关的话题：在入侵后的前1个月里，传7个俄国将军（2中将+5少将）被/“被”死掉，但是最后确证只有1个（少将）。其中一位（少将）在乌克兰国防布宣布死亡的两个半月后被实况转播授勋。
在全面开战半年后，那个“被”死亡情况大大减轻。很多人的理智重新占了脑子的上风。
最近两天的一个大热题涉及内容被严重夸大的程度很可能超过了上述具体情况。
我看的几个密切追踪战争的频道都讨论了这个。他根据这几天的卫星图，又一次在讨论。。。还有其它。。。
我在另外一个主题里讨论了那里被人提起的与主题完全无关的话题：在入侵后的前1个月里，传7个俄国将军（2中将+5少将）被/“被”死掉，但是最后确证只有1个（少将）。其中一位（少将）在乌克兰国防布宣布死亡的两个半月后被实况转播授勋。
在全面开战半年后，那个“被”死亡情况大大减轻。很多人的理智重新占了脑子的上风。
最近两天的一个大热题涉及内容被严重夸大的程度很可能超过了上述具体情况。
我看的几个密切追踪战争的频道都讨论了这个。他根据这几天的卫星图，又一次在讨论。。。还有其它。。。
#40 Re: 回顾和展望乌克兰情况
这场战争有若干大的变数。美国和北约会继续怎样“投资”下去是最大的变数。
如果川普重新上台（其可能性高于50%），战争可能就会朝和谈方向走。（对中国几乎肯定会变得更不利。由他掀起的中美经贸对抗的大提升也许会更明显地继续，美国在军事上的注意力会更加移往东亚和东南亚。）俄国面临着很大的压力要在今年在战场上取得相当大的进展。
前面提到：Kharkiv地区会是俄军的一个（排前二的）重要方向。（从现实看，俄方多少是在被加速在那地区开辟战区。乌方在其它地方的压力会被减轻。。。）
但bakhmut/avdiivka向西一带仍会是最重要地区，而不仅仅是最重要的一个地区。我记得：bakhmut地区是苏德攻防大转换后，德军大防线/区被崩裂的地区。。。也许历史告诉我们那里决定着战争的大走向。。。俄军继续西进会威胁西边河西区乌军后方，也会威胁slovyansk和kramatorsk的大后方。。。并进一步威胁kharkiv的后方。。。但今年俄军基本上只有实力把今年的目标定在（几乎完全）夺下顿巴斯的全部。
如果川普重新上台（其可能性高于50%），战争可能就会朝和谈方向走。（对中国几乎肯定会变得更不利。由他掀起的中美经贸对抗的大提升也许会更明显地继续，美国在军事上的注意力会更加移往东亚和东南亚。）俄国面临着很大的压力要在今年在战场上取得相当大的进展。
前面提到：Kharkiv地区会是俄军的一个（排前二的）重要方向。（从现实看，俄方多少是在被加速在那地区开辟战区。乌方在其它地方的压力会被减轻。。。）
但bakhmut/avdiivka向西一带仍会是最重要地区，而不仅仅是最重要的一个地区。我记得：bakhmut地区是苏德攻防大转换后，德军大防线/区被崩裂的地区。。。也许历史告诉我们那里决定着战争的大走向。。。俄军继续西进会威胁西边河西区乌军后方，也会威胁slovyansk和kramatorsk的大后方。。。并进一步威胁kharkiv的后方。。。但今年俄军基本上只有实力把今年的目标定在（几乎完全）夺下顿巴斯的全部。