By ZeroHedge - Nov 25, 2023, 10:00 AM CST
China's share of the global economy dropped from 18.4% in 2021 to 17% in 2023, a 1.4% decrease in just two years.
This decline is attributed to a combination of fewer workers entering the labor force, high government debts, and slowing productivity growth.
Despite efforts by President Xi Jinping, China's economic dominance is expected to continue declining due to various internal and external factors, including a shrinking workforce and a shift in foreign investments.
In a historic turn, China’s rise as an economic superpower is reversing. The biggest global story of the past half century may be over.
After stagnating under Mao Zedong in the 1960s and 70s, China opened to the world in the 1980s — and took off in subsequent decades. Its share of the global economy rose nearly tenfold from below 2 per cent in 1990 to 18.4 per cent in 2021. No nation had ever risen so far, so fast.
Then the reversal began. In 2022, China’s share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17 per cent. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s.
These numbers are in “nominal” dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation’s relative economic strength. China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.
China’s decline could reorder the world. Since the 1990s, the country’s share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.
To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105tn. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent. Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.
Moreover, China’s slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China’s rise is reversing by Beijing’s own account.
One reason this has gone largely unnoticed is that most analysts focus on real GDP growth, which is inflation-adjusted. And by adjusting creatively for inflation, Beijing has long managed to report that real growth is steadily hitting its official target, now around 5 per cent. This in turn appears to confirm, every quarter, the official story that “the east is rising.” But China’s real long-term potential growth rate — the sum of new workers entering the labour force and output per worker — is now more like 2.5 per cent.
The ongoing baby bust in China has already lowered its share of the world working age population from a peak of 24 per cent to 19 per cent, and it is expected to fall to 10 per cent over the next 35 years. With a shrinking share of the world’s workers, a smaller share of growth is almost certain.
Further, over the past decade, China’s government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker. This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.
In nominal dollar terms, China’s GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994. Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely. China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.
Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12bn in the third quarter — the first such drop since records began. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too. Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.
China’s President Xi Jinping has in the past expressed supreme confidence that history is shifting in his country’s favour, and nothing can stop its rise. His meetings with Joe Biden and US chief executives at last week’s summit in San Francisco did hint at moderation, or at least a recognition that China still needs foreign business partners. But almost no matter what Xi does, his nation’s share in the global economy is likely to decline for the foreseeable future.
It’s a post-China world now.
By Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International via Zerohedge.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Wane.html
核心论据是老刁会滚
嘿嘿，弄死中国了他滚不滚的重要么
需要制造更多“中国崩溃论”来壮胆了？
接下来各种高科技马上要井喷了
这些研究都是现有结论后有论据。价值为零
麻痹扪心自问，这几年，兲朝是大踏步前进，有新能源，有芯片，有电动车，把洋人操的哭爹喊娘
美国要完了，整这些没用的东西屁用没有
有什么好不买账的
双方列数据，不是liar的就列数据好了。
中国很多地方确实是在进步
包括电池电车，但是电池电车的大幅度增长，出口还是萎缩
读者不傻。
You have lots of knowledge. It never reflects in your TV appearances or articles. Time to unfollow.
(Edited)
Three reasons why the world is not post-China
1. China remains and will stay as the world's biggest market for many products
2. Xi will go away, in 1 year or 10. Any MNC which wants to build a presence and brand won't leave
3. China already plays a bigger role than the US in the Middle East and Asia. It can't be ignored
People like me would love to learn from your 30 years of experience. Take care!
In any profession people use media either to prove their skills(stage1) or educate masses(stage2). You have 3 decades of experience time to move from stage1 to stage2. This is the difference between you(kid) and someone like Ray Dalio. No offence meant.
Please share your views on Poland too! Thanks.
Roma Victor
Listen to Peter Zeihan—ahead of the game, even if not invited to the old ladies’ tea parties
(Edited)
Dr Kahneman would have a field day with this article, and most of the comments, replete as they are with a vast number of the specific cognitive biases that his work has identified.
In short, this entire echo chamber contains nothing more than a flood of conjecture, assumptions and conclusions which are entirely unsupported by appropriate, substantive data or facts. Indeed, the author's primary assumption, the foundation upon which he builds his entire thesis, is laughable.
Nominal dollar terms, unadjusted for inflation, measured over a cherry-picked timeframe, is certainly NOT the most accurate measure of China's relative economic strength. And to propose that all other data and considerations can safely be ignored is mendacity of the highest order.
Fundamentally dishonest article. A cherry picked index (Nominal growth in USD in an era of Fed hikes) for a cherry picked period (2 years, not 1 or 3!). How else to come up with the zero China growth claim???
Any tweaking to this metric and the article falls apart. Do real instead of nominal, any period other than 2 years, any currency other than USD such as EUR or CNY and China has far from non-zero growth in 2022 and 2023.
FT needs to retract this article or at least put a disclaimer.
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https://www.ft.com/content/c10bd71b-e41 ... c5783c51a2
Awful article, weak in content and poorly written. Doesn't say anything much and whatever little it does say is overblown. Basically it looks at nominal GDP in dollars and says in an article what could be said in a sentence. And even the prose is either cliche or hyperbole. "The biggest global story of the past half century" was the end of the Cold War. To respect its readers, the FT should maintain high standards of analysis and writing.
不好意思，采用的全部是铲逼自己的数据