Shifts in Chinese Exports Show Ties With US Economy Fraying

LEARN MORE By Bloomberg News
January 15, 2024 at 7:00 AM EST


For the first time, China exported more to Southeast Asia than the US last year, highlighting the realignment of global trade that’s happening as the economic relationship frays between Washington and Beijing.

The 10 nations in Asean bought $524 billion of goods last year, higher than the $500 billion worth sold to the US or the value of shipments to the European Union, data released Friday showed.

Asean is Now China's Biggest Export Destination
Exports to the EU were also slightly higher than to the US last year


Source: China's General Administration of Customs

But while the data show a slow decoupling happening between China and the US, it’s not a clean breakup. Chinese exports to Mexico were up more than 5% through November, with companies likely shipping some products there for final sale in the US, avoiding US tariffs.

Big Take: War Over Taiwan Is a $10 Trillion Risk to the Global Economy

Exports to Thailand and Vietnam also fell much less than elsewhere. Chinese and foreign firms have increasingly been shipping goods there to be finished and then re-exported to developed nations, with the Bank of International Settlements writing about these “elongated supply lines” last year.

Imports from China Have Risen And Exports to the US too

Source: Vietnamese and Mexican official data

Sustained deflation in China is also dragging down the value of Chinese exports and making them cheaper for foreign consumers. In October, the index of export prices hit the lowest in data back to 2006, and was only slightly higher in November.


Read More: China’s Central Bank Holds Key Rate in Policy Surprise

One cause of that drop in prices has been the slowing domestic economy, which has has also weighed on imports of goods such as semiconductors — down by double digits last year.

China's Exports to Russia Soared Since Invasion of Ukraine
Bilateral trade rose as other nations pull out or stop buying from Moscow


Source: China's General Administration of Customs

Note: Breakdown not available for Dec. 2023 yet.

One big standout was trade with Russia, with exports up almost 50% and imports rising almost 13%. Chinese companies have taken advantage of competitors from elsewhere pulling out of the country and piled in, selling many more cars and other machinery.

At the same time, Chinese imports are well above the level when Russia invaded Ukraine, with Beijing buying more oil and gas from its northern neighbor.

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Charted Territory
Global Shipping Chokepoints
Recent droughts and conflict highlight maritime hotspots, with many more locations vulnerable to disruption


Sources: Lincoln Pratson of Duke University; GPS locations from OpenStreetMap; Statista

Note: Percentages don’t sum to 100 as a ship may pass through multiple chokepoints.

Mapping Chokepoints | Thousands of miles from Suez and Panama, waterways that carry large swathes of global commerce are vulnerable to disruptions that will shake up supply chains, according to research by Professor Lincoln Pratson at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Tim Culpan, Pratson painstakingly details trade patterns, shipping routes and the shortest paths across the oceans to assess the potential impact of closing any of the 13 chokepoints he identified around the world.

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此博文来自论坛版块：军事天地（Military）