回顾和展望乌克兰情况

[meiyoumajia]

those 45+/- countries have been almost always together for common interests which are never lacking
they all will attend the "peace" summit

but, they need to get at least a dozen of other countries (say, each having a population of over 7 millions) to attend
just to show that it will not be a circus performance

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war ... -zelensky/
Ukraine war latest: 2 Ukrainian colonels detained in Russia's plot to assassinate Zelensky, SBU says

[meiyoumajia]

at times we say:
a win is a win
a loss is a loss


how about saying:
a draw is a draw
??????


i tried

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

[meiyoumajia]

2013年（乌克兰还没有分裂），也就是11年前（原）乌克兰人口大约4千5百万。很多人离开了乌克兰。（包括克里米亚和其它俄实际控制区）净流出1千多万。


乌克兰政府控制区大约3千多万，很可能不足3千3百万。下面的调查是针对乌克兰政府的所有控制区，而不包括其它区（俄控制区和境外）。

俄国有120万左右源于乌克兰的难民。
俄控制区（包括克里米亚等）人口应该有400万以上（2020年左右或更早有800万以上）。这是非常保守的估计。实际更可能是500（900），因为克里米亚、顿涅斯城和卢甘斯卡城都没有成为过直接战区；它们原有人口共近350万。（2百多万克里米亚人中绝大多数人是俄族。）

因此，调查没有包括500万以上的在俄国和俄控制区的（原）乌克兰人（大多数很可能已经转入俄罗斯籍）。也没有包括其它各国共有的500万以上的难民。

按照这个调查结果可推（“原”）乌克兰人口对俄印象负面的比例下限大约是：
74%*33/40 = 61%


实际可能更接近
74%*39/45 = 64%


很有可能的是：“原”乌克兰人口中约1/3仍然对俄（人）没有反感。
（前面的调查在说：乌克兰政府控制区中的1/5人口对俄罗斯人没有反感。）



https://kyivindependent.com/poll-74-of- ... -russians/
The survey was conducted via telephone interviews with 2,005 respondents living across Ukraine, except in areas under Russian occupation. The survey was conducted between March 11 and March 16.

According to the latest poll, 20% of Ukrainians said they feel neutral toward Russians, and just 4% feel positively or very positively toward Russians.

While 74% of Ukrainians have a "negative or very negative attitude towards citizens of Russia," this figure rose to 82% among respondents in Kyiv.

In the east of Ukraine, 65% of respondents said they felt negative toward Russians, with 24% responding they felt neutral.


https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

“乌克兰政府控制区大约3千多万，很可能不足3千3百万。”

32milion是政府控制区的大致人口？

"out of a total estimated population of 32 million"

[meiyoumajia]

for china:
lesser of two evils
better for china


to russia,:
better or worse?

[ridgway]

发生了就是100%，不发生就是0%，你扯什么40%还是60%还是90%毫无意义。有种就来对赌，截止某个具体日期，比如一年内，这事到底会不会发生。过去20年，无数五毛跟我对赌5年内统一台湾，我从来都没有输过。

如果是40%，当然会完全不出现也有可能！
你瞎胡扯有什么意义？

你以为你什么都知道？？？？？？你还肯定，真是不知量力。

[meiyoumajia]

完了；-）
这个主题也被他缠上了

这篇帖子由 ridgway 发表，他/她正在您的忽略列表中。
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[meiyoumajia]

for china:
lesser of two evils
better for china


to russia,:
better or worse?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/31/worl ... ction.html

...

Still, the fundamental tension in regional geopolitics — the contest between the United States and China — will continue no matter who wins the American presidential election.

“Beijing has no illusion about Trump or Biden, given their anti-China solid stance,” said Lau Siu-kai, an adviser to the Chinese government on Hong Kong policy. “Beijing is all set for a more intense confrontation with the U.S. over technology, trade and Taiwan.”

...


“The majority of Xi Jinping’s advisers now think a Trump presidency might be worse for U.S.-China relations,” Mr. Lam said of China’s top leader. “If Trump were to win, given the now peculiar circumstances of his victory, he might gravitate towards unpredictable actions to assert his authority.”


..

The Philippines is now led by the son of the longtime dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos, who died in exile in Hawaii. He has reoriented the country away from China back toward the United States.




...

In Europe, leaders reliant on the United States for their defense are jittery about a return to a more acrimonious relationship with Washington and a possible withdrawal of American support for hardening defenses against Russia.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did not immediately respond to the verdict but has seized on the situation more broadly to undermine American influence. Mr. Putin last year called the various proceedings against Mr. Trump political “persecution” and said they had revealed the “rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy.”

His spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, reiterated the point on Friday in response to the verdict, saying it was clear to the entire world that the U.S. authorities were trying to eliminate political rivals “by all possible legal and illegal means.”

[meiyoumajia]

最近几乎完全不来这个版面，因此对这个主题也断更了


发展情况：
1.俄罗斯在战场上加快了攻取速度。更加利于了在轰击武器上非常明显的总优势和空中优势---不说别的。。。


2.俄罗斯与朝鲜建立军事互卫联盟
别小看朝鲜。它有特别强的苏式生产能力/潜力

3.川普上台的几率更高了。如果他再任，俄罗斯面临的制裁压力会减小，中国面临的压力又会增大。乌克兰官方不得不同意考虑和谈，其实是川普给他们多了个大台阶下。


俄罗斯面临的征兵压力会比乌克兰明显更低，但也不轻松。对入伍奖励和当兵的月收入都有特别大的提高。俄罗斯的通货膨胀膨胀似乎也明显上升了。




还有其它的。。。就不提了

[meiyoumajia]

最近几乎完全不来这个版面，因此对这个主题也断更了


发展情况：
1.俄罗斯在战场上加快了攻取速度。更加利于了在轰击武器上非常明显的总优势和空中优势---不说别的。。。


2.俄罗斯与朝鲜建立军事互卫联盟
别小看朝鲜。它有特别强的苏式生产能力/潜力

3.川普上台的几率更高了。如果他再任，俄罗斯面临的制裁压力会减小，中国面临的压力又会增大。乌克兰官方不得不同意考虑和谈，其实是川普给他们多了个大台阶下。


俄罗斯面临的征兵压力会比乌克兰明显更低，但也不轻松。对入伍奖励和当兵的月收入都有特别大的提高。俄罗斯的通货膨胀膨胀似乎也明显上升了。




还有其它的。。。就不提了

总统大选投票情况:1/3不表,约各有1/3选两边
两种烂中选好让重罪犯人再上台,狂言妄语不断.1天停战--》100天,几乎肯定:在交错复杂变化的现实中,停战日期还会延长(---〉中国还有更多的缓冲时间)
在战场上基本掌握主动的俄罗斯被惊喜了,人口近4亿的40大小微国政府们懵了



对延伸部分的继续:
川普有些做法是矛盾的
想阻止中国的地位继续上升,但同时让本国更自我行事,把更多的国际空间实际让给中国和其它国
4年很快,也许现在的副总统会连任4年...8年后川普基本就可能会没什么影响力了.90几?

明白人都会知道中国在国际上更一致更务实,也更考虑其它国家的利益,尽管西方大媒体占据了较大的国际舆论平台...中国对外国人6-10天免签让很多人看到了更真实的中国本身实行了最有效/最让人信服的反击


多年前被找点放大扭曲再放大歪解大骂大黑的两大题目:
2025制造
一带一路

现在还能那样骂得起来吗??